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Silent Service Method

  • #2,361
  • Jun 28, 2009 1:53pm Jun 28, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting pianosax12
Hi there, i'm a relative newbie, and perhaps someone could help me out.
I've got exactly the same on my charts, which was pleasing as it looks as if i'm getting there setting up my charts correctly, with fibs etc!
On this chart, it's clearly in a downtrend from mid Aug to end of Dec, where it puts in a SL, and starts retracing.
It's now been creeping up for the last 6 months or so. So although i understand that, looking at the big picture, it's retracing, and is now at the 50 fib, does that mean if you had bullish PA, in the last 6 mnths, you are...
Don't worry - I think everyone struggles wit5h this - I know I do.

Problem I have is that PF is at historical lows - so it must turn soon surely.

Or not??

The trend tho is down on all the major timeframes, so I think this is just a re-trace.
  • #2,362
  • Jun 28, 2009 2:26pm Jun 28, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting pianosax12
Hi there, i'm a relative newbie, and perhaps someone could help me out.
I've got exactly the same on my charts, which was pleasing as it looks as if i'm getting there setting up my charts correctly, with fibs etc!
On this chart, it's clearly in a downtrend from mid Aug to end of Dec, where it puts in a SL, and starts retracing.
It's now been creeping up for the last 6 months or so. So although i understand that, looking at the big picture, it's retracing, and is now at the 50 fib, does that mean if you had bullish PA, in the last 6 mnths, you are...
I think the way to play it would be to trade the short term trend on its own merits, setting targets that do not conflict with the longer term trend taking profits there instead of risking anything in uncertain conditions. If its at this point already, stay out until the market decides which trend is the stronger. From memory, i think thats what CW has said he most often does in this situation.

PS - Great thread CW. I am now up to date after reading the whole thing on my way to work each morning. Thanks to the others for their contributions too. I'm learning loads. I'll be drawing s/r lines frantically on any chart i can find for the next few weeks!

PPS - Good choice CW - Arsenal!!

Coopster
  • #2,363
  • Jun 28, 2009 2:32pm Jun 28, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone looking at GBPCHF.

Its right on the 50 fib and a ppz with I3B.

the 200ema is also close

Attachment

Stewrigh,

From your chart it looks as though you're considering shorting this(correct me if I'm wrong), when that big green candle was the result of CB intervention to suppress the appreciation of the Franc.

Sometimes the CB's win, sometimes the market wants otherwise and gets it, just be warned if you go short you are playing against the desires of a central bank.
  • #2,364
  • Jun 28, 2009 2:36pm Jun 28, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting Low
Stewrigh,

From your chart it looks as though you're considering shorting this(correct me if I'm wrong), when that big green candle was the result of CB intervention to suppress the appreciation of the Franc.

Sometimes the CB's win, sometimes the market wants otherwise and gets it, just be warned if you go short you are playing against the desires of a central bank.
Yeah I know but I also remember when Soros bet against the BOE and won - lol.

In the end the market always wins.
  • #2,365
  • Jun 28, 2009 2:41pm Jun 28, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting stewrigh
In the end the market always wins.
What does that mean?
I've heard it lots of times and I cant figure out a meaning for it.
Care to enlighten me?



Strong support for gbpchf at 1.7850
Loads more at 1.73-ish.

The trend depends on you TF. Long term you are right it is bearish, but look at all the support it has to go through to make a a bearish trade profitable...

Path of least resistance is back up to 1.8x
  • #2,366
  • Jun 28, 2009 3:01pm Jun 28, 2009 3:01pm
Only with the trend...

Long audcad off .91
Long audusd off .785
Long eurcad off 1.6
Short eurgbp off .86
Long eurjpy off 135 (break above 135 then come back down test it, then long) Looking forward to this!
Long eurusd off 1.375
Long gbpjpy off 155
Long gbpusd off 1.62 duh
Long nzdusd off .615
Short usdchf off 1.10
Long usdcad off 1.14
Long usdjpy off 94
  • #2,367
  • Jun 28, 2009 3:16pm Jun 28, 2009 3:16pm
Stewrigh-It's heartening to now i'm not the only one whose struggled with this.Thanx
Coopster- thx, makes perfect sense

i'm really trying to learn, and devote a lot of my free time to this stuff, but as my old granny said, Don't ask, you don't get, so i apologise for my ignorance and questions.

JicJoc. can i ask you where ur feed is from, i note ur in Ireland, i'm in London. I have support at 1.72 not 1.73, obviously 100 pips can make quite a difference on a trade. This leads me to question whether i'm defining the right S and R levels.

I define mine on the weekly, using a Line chart.

As an aside, i've just bought the book Pring on Price Patterns, so i will read that before trading again.

Thx for your help.

Regards
  • #2,368
  • Jun 28, 2009 3:16pm Jun 28, 2009 3:16pm
Speaking of good games, are you watching this Chris? First time I've seen the US play in this competition. You guys got good. I can't remember the last time were 2-0 up against Brazil. No shame if you do lose here.

What a game.
  • #2,369
  • Jun 28, 2009 3:19pm Jun 28, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting jicjoc
What does that mean?
I've heard it lots of times and I cant figure out a meaning for it.
Care to enlighten me?
There were instances in the 90's when the BOJ tried repeatedly to suppress the appreciation of the Yen, but the traders wouldn't have it, and just kept buying, and in the end, the traders won.

In this case it could go either way, so I'll wait and watch.
  • #2,370
  • Jun 28, 2009 3:24pm Jun 28, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting pianosax12
i'm really trying to learn, and devote a lot of my free time to this stuff, but as my old granny said, Don't ask, you don't get, so i apologise for my ignorance and questions.

JicJoc. can i ask you where ur feed is from, i note ur in Ireland, i'm in London. I have support at 1.72 not 1.73, obviously 100 pips can make quite a difference on a trade. This leads me to question whether i'm defining the right S and R levels.
lol
Ask away my man.
I dont know how true my answers will be though...

I draw SR lines using a OHLC bar chart, not a line chart.
My feed is fxpro - Cyprus? Trade with Oanda.

I find that when drawing SR lines highs are not the most useful. What you want is a priceflip.
I think of it as a wall, or better yet, a ceiling.
I look for a point where price bashes its head off the ceiling for a long time. Then when it finally bashes thru that ceiling and comes back down to stomp its feet it find rafters of support.
Thats my line.
A ceiling alone is useful but i wont trade off it solely.
I need ceiling + rafters



Oops - i dont think i answered the question you asked...
Anyway...
My SR line would probably be at 1.72 or 1.715 if it got down there...
  • #2,371
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:44pm Jun 28, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting Coopster
I think the way to play it would be to trade the short term trend on its own merits, setting targets that do not conflict with the longer term trend taking profits there instead of risking anything in uncertain conditions. If its at this point already, stay out until the market decides which trend is the stronger. From memory, i think thats what CW has said he most often does in this situation.

PS - Great thread CW. I am now up to date after reading the whole thing on my way to work each morning. Thanks to the others for their contributions too....

Yeah, if you are getting conflicting signals in any way - stay out. I have to agree though, this is a juicy spot for a continuation of the downtrend.....

Let the charts tell you first, don't anticipate.
  • #2,372
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:46pm Jun 28, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting TiaForex
Speaking of good games, are you watching this Chris? First time I've seen the US play in this competition. You guys got good. I can't remember the last time were 2-0 up against Brazil. No shame if you do lose here.

What a game.
They gave the game away - they SHOULD have won. I don't care if it's Brazil or Haiti.....you have to finish the job.
  • #2,373
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:02pm Jun 28, 2009 5:02pm
[quote=jicjoc;2834892]What does that mean?
I've heard it lots of times and I cant figure out a meaning for it.
Care to enlighten me?



My interpretation is that the market doesn't care if the Swiss bank or any other bank wants to de-value their currency.

The market knows what the true value of any currency should be and thats where the price will go whatever the CB's try to do.

It may take a while but it'll get there.
  • #2,374
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:33pm Jun 28, 2009 5:33pm
Hello,

A nice play could be here from the 95.00 area.
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  • #2,375
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:10pm Jun 28, 2009 6:10pm
Quoting NikolasII
Hello,

A nice play could be here from the 95.00 area.
or the 95.50 if you take another look at that chart
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #2,376
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:35pm Jun 28, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting clockwork71
They gave the game away - they SHOULD have won. I don't care if it's Brazil or Haiti.....you have to finish the job.
CW,

I think that they could have finish the job against Haiti ... They were playing Brazil and the US does not posses the skills to control the middle.... Too much pressure applied throughout the game...They played very well and should get some respect around the world.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #2,377
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:40pm Jun 28, 2009 6:40pm
Quoting moneda
CW,

I think that they could have finish the job against Haiti ... They were playing Brazil and the US does not posses the skills to control the middle.... Too much pressure applied throughout the game...They played very well and should get some respect around the world.
I know what you mean, but here's what I saw: Brazil scoring their first goal, and US folding. It was almost instant. It is one of the fatal flaws of the team. They lack mental strength. They would never be able to trade, that's for sure!
  • #2,378
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:49pm Jun 28, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting clockwork71
They gave the game away - they SHOULD have won. I don't care if it's Brazil or Haiti.....you have to finish the job.
Our lucky U.S. didn't finish the job while they could...

Unfortunately for U.S. that it was Brazil, not Haiti that was given the chance...

Indeed US played very well...

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #2,379
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:58pm Jun 28, 2009 6:58pm
Good game, the USA left that game with their head held high...I applaud them.
  • #2,380
  • Jun 28, 2009 7:12pm Jun 28, 2009 7:12pm
Hello,

I am having some difficulty deciding on a PPZ for the eur/gbp on the weekly... here are my zones for now.... anyone agree with them?

Thanks
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Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
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