Sweet, sweet Oil

Crude moved lower in early trading touching an intraday low of $66.79 and looked poised for another sell off. However, the 9 day moving average proved once again good support level (a common feature of this short term up trend).Failure to cross below this indicator has brought additional buying power pushing crude higher to close at $68.74 giving a 69 cents gain for the day. So the consolidation in crude continued with the chart still showing an overall bullish picture for the near term.
The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bearish.
WTI:
Support: $66.79 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $70.40 (high of 05/06/09)
Support: $66.40 (low of 01/06/09) Resistance: $69.60 (high of 04/06/09)
Support: $65.92 (low of 04/06/09) Resistance: $68.95 (yesterday's high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $66.88 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)
Support: $65.49 (low of 01/06/09) Resistance: $69.91 (high of 05/06/09)
Support: $64.91 (low of 03/06/09) Resistance: $68.79 (yesterday's high)

Oil breached the previous mentioned neckline at 69.35, approaching the technical target around 72.00 zones. We still expect further inclines toward the targets around 72.00-72.35 zones but also some kind of volatile movements might be seen as the overbought signs of the momentum indicators may cause a negative pressure and take the price towards 69.90 - the initial support of the minor channel appearing on the secondary image- before resuming its bullishness.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 65.75 and the key resistance at 73.00.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at $73.00 a barrel.
Support: 69.90, 69.30, 68.80, 68.20, 67.55
Resistance: 71.40, 72.00, 72.30, 73.00, 73.95
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the contract above 69.90 with targets at 72.00 and stop loss with a four-hour closing below 68.80.

I don't trade Oil, but I do need to take watch at oil price since it's correlated with gold usually.

Thanks for the information JS.

highest price so far 73.23 on Jul09 contract

Is anyone actually trading oil?

Seems like every time oil goes up by $10 OPEC says they've reached a new fair price where supply meets demand.

So what's actually moving oil prices? From what I've heard the market is oversupplied with oil and tankers are being parked on the seas for oil storage.

Here's an interesting article one to build off of Fridays' post. CAD/JPY potential play for those following the oil markets. I'm guessing the world bank growth forecast caused a slide in the oil market thereby causing a slide in cad/jpy; though the drop in stocks couldn't hurt either.

Another day of oil declines. Trend line one has been broken, now to trend line 2.

Hi,

May I know where do you get the chart?

Love your screenshot and simple analysis. Thx

Hi sanzaru,

Good to have you in the oil thread. The chart is from FXCM's CFD trading platform. Here's how you can access the chart. Register for an FXCM CFD demo account HERE. After you download the software and login to the demo, goto the top of the platform and click on Chart > Create Marketshot. In the symbol list choose US Oil. It's at the very bottom of the list.

Do you trade oil yourself or just use it for analysis when trading other currencies? I'm watching it against CAD/JPY and USD/NOK, but I'm a commodity bull in general.

Enjoy,

Jason


Oil Quote:
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.
- J. Paul Getty

Hi

I'm using oil price as indicator for my gold physical trading. If the oil rise, the gold also tend to rise. It's not always like that, but most of it like that, especially in the gold production country like australia, africa and US.

Thank you for the source I'm registering in FXCM know to see the oil price. Fiuuh.. more platform hahaha.... I wish i have it all in one platform. Thanks though

Latest push in oil prices above $70 is being given credit to MEND in Nigeria for attacking one of the oil pipelines. Article

BTW, if you want free oil and gold analysis you can sign up here http://www.cfdtrading.com/cfd-sign-up/

oil will fall from here i guess

hi shashashuber,

Anything in particular you're watching that would cause oil to drop?

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- America’s biggest oil companies will probably cope with U.S. carbon legislation by closing fuel plants, cutting capital spending and increasing imports.
Under the Waxman-Markey climate bill that may be voted on today by the U.S. House, refiners would have to buy allowances for carbon dioxide spewed from their plants and from vehicles when motorists burn their fuel. Imports would need permits only for the latter, which ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Jim Mulva said would create a competitive imbalance.
“It will lead to the opportunity for foreign sources to bring in transportation fuels at a lower cost, which will have an adverse impact to our industry, potential shutdown of refineries and investment and, ultimately, employment,” Mulva said in a June 16 interview in Detroit. Houston-based ConocoPhillips has the second-largest U.S. refining capacity.
The same amount of gasoline that would have $1 in carbon costs imposed if it were domestic would have 10 cents less added if it were imported, according to energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie in Houston. Contrary to President Barack Obama’s goal of reducing dependence on overseas energy suppliers, the bill would incent U.S. refiners to import more fuel, said Clayton Mahaffey, an analyst at RedChip Cos. in Maitland, Florida.
“They’ll be searching the globe for refined products that don’t carry the same level of carbon costs,” said Mahaffey, a former Exxon Corp. refinery manager.
Prices Seen Rising
The equivalent of one in six U.S. refineries probably would close by 2020 as the cost of carbon allowances erases profits, according to the American Petroleum Institute, a Washington trade group known as API. Carbon permits would add 77 cents a gallon to the price of gasoline, said Russell Jones, the API’s senior economic adviser.
“Because it’s going to be more expensive to produce the stuff, refiners will slow down production and cut back on inventories to squeeze every penny of profit they can from the system,” said Geoffrey Styles, founder of GSW Strategy Group LLC in Vienna, Virginia. “We will end up with less domestic product on the market and a greater reliance on imports, all of which means higher, more volatile prices.”
U.S. motorists, already facing the steepest jump in gasoline prices in 18 years, would bear the brunt as refiners pass on added costs, Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson told reporters after a May 27 meeting in Dallas.
Democrats in the House plan to bring the climate bill to a vote as soon as today. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, stopped short of predicting victory at a press conference yesterday, saying she was making progress in building support for the bill.

last time IMF threats to sell gold to manipulate gold price, it goes to 860 then to 990....

now the new bill wants to manipulate and surpress coke price again...
it's a good chance to long coke when price drop by 10%, 20% and 30% percent...

let me rush to open acc supporting coke futures hahaha
whenever governments wants to manipulate price by their tricks, it create oppotunity for us to buy...

why not pass a bill require that man don't eat rice, meat and drink water so the resources of the earth could be saved...
so we can invest in looking for a energy 'cell' where you can eat one and live for a day.... hahahaha

oh, probably on the other hand retail oil provider can raise price for this bill also now...?
there is always someway they get in more money, last time when crude oil price drop by 2/3, retail oil did not drop at all...

Thanks for the article. I was aware of the carbon legislation but hadn't seen how it may affect the oil industry. Interesting stuff and looks like it could have big implications for the future.

Maybe oil has fallen into the same trading range that has sucked in the USD pairs.

And China's in the news with bidding for Iraqi oil fields . Good planning on their part trying to secure oil where possible to support their growth.

I was in about a month ago when oil's @ 72 near peak, nonetheless it dropped and I've been holding. Far as I understand through Bloomberg, people dived into commodities as the US dollar sunk and stocks and commodities surged as a safe haven against the dollar, now the opposite happening and the USD gaining strength on economic uncertainties and lack of recovery.

I'm still very bullish on oil though, and don't plan on removing my position anytime soon.

Currently the crude oil is priced $60 which is 0.19 higher. Can any forecast on it's price.

Regards,
Conan