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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #8,141
  • Jun 26, 2009 7:41am Jun 26, 2009 7:41am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
eh....bring back the gold standard ? I am betting on gold. hehehe
Sorry , not enough gold to go around. sea shells would be nice.
  • #8,142
  • Jun 26, 2009 7:48am Jun 26, 2009 7:48am
Quoting fti
Sorry , not enough gold to go around. sea shells would be nice.
  • #8,143
  • Jun 26, 2009 8:33am Jun 26, 2009 8:33am
preparing for the $ devaluation, when?
  • #8,144
  • Jun 26, 2009 8:34am Jun 26, 2009 8:34am
3rd World War
  • #8,145
  • Jun 26, 2009 8:45am Jun 26, 2009 8:45am
war...no I am too young...my govt will force me to go war nononono...not now.
  • #8,146
  • Jun 26, 2009 8:49am Jun 26, 2009 8:49am
Quoting fti
preparing for the $ devaluation, when?
IN GOD WE TRUST....amen
  • #8,147
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:11am Jun 26, 2009 9:11am
Not much productivity today.

The map is confusing, politicians are talking, ticks are spiky.... seems nobody in the market...

Good night, dear fti and all, have a nice weekend.
  • #8,148
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:19am Jun 26, 2009 9:19am
dont think war will happen anytime soon ,
nkorea cant win a nuclear war , they know that pretty well ,
all big talks usually just for intimidation purpose ,
if they really wanna do it , they would have done it by now
but throughout history , war never ceased , I just hope I dont have to witness one in my lifetime

allrite I think Im done for the week
good trade to all n good weekend


ps : when blood is on the street , buy property (Rothschild)
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #8,149
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:28am Jun 26, 2009 10:28am

ok cu guys. Upstairs ghost. downstairs siege.
market like ghost town , brok ers like crocodiles,
hai, ya better finished for week.

regards
  • #8,150
  • Jun 26, 2009 11:02am Jun 26, 2009 11:02am
Looks like everyone is calling it a week. Only one trade today, shorted the E/Y. S-L-O-W day. Next week, 4th of July celebration in US late in week, so 1st half of week may be exciting. Hope everyone has a relaxing and fun weekend.
  • #8,151
  • Jun 26, 2009 11:03am Jun 26, 2009 11:03am
Quoting fti

ok cu guys. Upstairs ghost. downstairs siege.
market like ghost town , brok ers like crocodiles,
hai, ya better finished for week.

regards
Hi fti

Agree with you that this terrein is not good for trading. Wishing you a great weekend.

I have a question regarding AOW. Does attack by fire relate to Blietzkrieg by any chance? My curious mind at work.

kind regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #8,152
  • Jun 26, 2009 11:31am Jun 26, 2009 11:31am
not a conspiracy theory.. but a nice summary on Goldman SACHS

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...ery-major.html


cya .. alll
  • #8,153
  • Jun 27, 2009 12:59am Jun 27, 2009 12:59am
Quoting fti
Thanks for the kind word.
With 20 years trading experience, it would be easy pisy for you to understand. Go get back on track and get your money back, carefully, sir lost a lot. And change your call sign to sir got my money back.

regards
Hello Fit and all

My handle is a left over from a 4X4 forum ( my favorite saying “ I wonder where this road goes”) although it is apt here as well, as I have lost in business and trading too.

As to the mindset it is easy to understand and implement (it is similar to my original training ) what is hard is dealing with the Scorpion, it’s what led me to this thread.
Though I was trained 20 years ago I only active traded for about 5 years, started as a retail customer managing family portfolio at local IB then went on to take a position in house but got very disillusion about practice & policies and just moved on. Have traded on and off since then mostly in stocks.

Had to restart active trading last year due to mismanaged investments, I had retired for about 4 years ago, sold my last business ( I’ve had too many adventures) and just traveled and being the family guy, Long and short my former accountant and friend put me in some very high risk derivatives well beyond my 15% of portfolio instructions, my fault for not looking too closely. Had he been successful there may have been a step 2 to his plan, which I most likely would not have known about.

Since I have no interest in stating new ventures right now, I have fallen back to active trading for income while my long term stuff tries to get back to par.
Family has been very supportive, and I have been doing quite well since September last year, my ROI is approx 15% month on month, problem is, I’m risk taker, always have been that’s why I have many trading rules ostensibly to offset and control the Scorpion, but it found a chink in my armor. You see success can be dangerous too.

I average 60-65pips per trade for 8 months, at beginning of May it dropped to 45, this in itself was of note but not dangerous, as market changes returns change, what alerted me to the scorpion was that my Book was growing at the same rate as before, meaning I had increased my skew to compensate but this was against my protection rules.

You see while crossing the river, we need to look at our refection in the water, if we see a frog, no problems but what I saw was a shiny black tail, I attempted to rectify but it was too late I had gotten too “full of myself”.. I became inpatient with profits and took trades out too early and at the same time gotten to comfortable with drawdown, many times allowing them to pass the cut zone, which was already set at 2.5 times my delta. Exactly opposite to the most basic of tenets. I ended the last week of May with my book 55% down.

Most of this analysis is in hindsight of course, least you think I’m schizophrenic, but the very nature of trading is bipolar as you are in a titanic struggle with yourself much more than the market but just as there is light in darkness and darkness in light.. solutions bring us new problems and problems lead us to new solutions, so here I am.

I will be stating the 2nd read through soon where I hope to rebuild my house this time with flexibilty as well as strength.


I have much of old to discard still, but this may be of use to some of you.

In days of yore people only traded in pits, face to face, reading each other’s body language, watching eyes and gestures, in short fighting hand to hand. Back then anybody in the vicinity of the pits could tell you what sentiment was, what the market was doing, how strong the move simply by the sound and fury, no need for charts or prices.

Today we only have color bars on a screen….…so my method to recapture this “feel” is to imagine the shouts of Buy! Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Sell! As the bar moves up and down…… I often do this with just watching the price quotes, no bars, especially near significant levels or market times…. This is very useful for timing entries and is as close to the “breath of the market” as I have every gotten.

Hope some can find use in this or other parts of my post; as that is what it is for.
Mario

Ps: I hope you all truly appreciate what FTI has done here...you couldn’t pay to get this sort of mentoring...even if you were got in an institute today (not ward 13) you would not get the same level of training you have here. As unfortunately they have gone on to almost absolute rigidity in MO….… every night I pray that the world will never be ruled by economist, I fear my prayers are too late.
Change your Mind and you will Change your World
  • #8,154
  • Jun 27, 2009 1:42am Jun 27, 2009 1:42am
Quoting Sirlostalot
Hello Fit and all

My handle is a left over from a 4X4 forum ( my favorite saying “ I wonder where this road goes”) although it is apt here as well, as I have lost in business and trading too.

As to the mindset it is easy to understand and implement (it is similar to my original training ) what is hard is dealing with the Scorpion, it’s what led me to this thread.
[size=3][font=Calibri]Though I was...
great read
  • #8,155
  • Jun 27, 2009 7:43am Jun 27, 2009 7:43am
Marion, thanks for such an inspirational post. I will try to remember it. Welcome to fti dance hall

Quoting Sirlostalot
Ps: I hope you all truly appreciate what FTI has done here...you couldn’t pay to get this sort of mentoring...even if you were got in an institute today (not ward 13) you would not get the same level of training you have here. As unfortunately they have gone on to almost absolute rigidity in MO….… every night I pray that the world will never be ruled by economist, I fear my prayers are too late.
Appreciate FTI?
Are you kidding?
As far as I am concerned, I went beyond appreciation. The man awe me....he is the very best.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #8,156
  • Jun 27, 2009 10:11am Jun 27, 2009 10:11am
Quoting Sirlostalot
Hello Fit and all

Ps: I hope you all truly appreciate what FTI has done here...you couldn’t pay to get this sort of mentoring...even if you were got in an institute today (not ward 13) you would not get the same level of training you have here. As unfortunately they have gone on to almost absolute rigidity in MO….… every night I pray that the world will never be ruled by economist, I fear my prayers are too late.
great read there ,
thanks for sharing

good fortune to you
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #8,157
  • Edited 2:22pm Jun 27, 2009 1:55pm | Edited 2:22pm
Fti,
Id like to give another shout out of thanks as Ive finally progressed to watching, seeing and begining to understand what the groups of candles and their formations are telling us.
I knew this is one of the things to watch for but for some reason I wasnt comprehending there lead at least to the degree I do now.

Id like to say it was a couple of your posted entries that made me see the isolated candle formations within the group which gave me an example of what were looking for.
So, the connection of what I should be looking for is being made and I believe Im at the begining of moving on to another level of experience.

Thanks

Id like to give an example and that being in my last post as I looked at the group of e/u candles thurs 6-25 1650 gmt as she was getting prepared for her next move bounceing around from 3895 to 3960. ( And yes I paced with her).
Next, I pick up on the isolated candles @ 1st clue 3895 and when I posted.
2nd clue and isolated candle formation in the group was 3926 where I believe you would have jumped into battle gear as the candle formations within the group and the train was pointing north.
  • #8,158
  • Jun 27, 2009 2:40pm Jun 27, 2009 2:40pm
Hi everyone, I can see from the participants on fti's thread that there are many people from all over the world here. I have a question that some of my friends in the US are beginning to ask: What are the countries in the world today that still believe in individual liberty and responsibilities? The US is putting itself on the fast path to third world status, and we have seriously begun to consider our alternatives. Our list thus far consists of New Zeland and maybe Australia, but we are not sure of these countries either. In the US today, about 1/2 of the people are worried sick about what Obama and the Dems is doing, and the other 1/2 are idiots. FYI -- we are heavily discounting all European countries for I think obvious reasons, unless a strong anti-socialist movement is underway.
  • #8,159
  • Edited Jun 28, 2009 3:23am Jun 27, 2009 4:19pm | Edited Jun 28, 2009 3:23am
Quoting GEfx
What are the countries in the world today that still believe in individual liberty and responsibilities? The US is putting itself on the fast path to third world status, and we have seriously begun to consider our alternatives. ...we are heavily discounting all European countries for I think obvious reasons, unless a strong anti-socialist movement is underway.
hello GEFX.

i think "individual liberty" confused with "individual wealth" got the world in the mess it's in in the first place together with not taking responsiblities.... americans should have read "paper money" 20 years ago.

in europe the only reason anti-socialist movement would be possible is because of racism. the sick thing is: average people vote for the guys who want to make them poor and the rich richer, because they want to kick muslims out.... it's all about fear.

the same as bush got re-elected on abortion and gay-marriage.

about part of the quote made red: i am not an economist/analyst but the charts say last 4 months euro is up againt the dollar.

gordon gekko said: "richest one procent owns half of the nations wealth" i think he is right about the US. and these wealthy should bail their country out like in europe countries with "low" defecits.

since there is no trading going on i guess (like GEFX) a political dissusion is ok...

hope everyone is enjoying their weekendss
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #8,160
  • Jun 27, 2009 5:55pm Jun 27, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting j-pax
hello GEFX.

i think "individual liberty" confused with "individual wealth" got the world in the mess it's in in the first place together with not taking responsiblities.... americans should have read "paper money" 20 years ago.

in europe the only reason anti-socialist movement would be possible is because of racism. the sick thing is: average people vote for the guys who want to make them poor and the rich richer, because they want to kick muslims out.... it's all about fear.

the same as bush got re-elected on abortion...
Hi j pax,
Yea, I hope this is an OK discussion on a non-trading day. Appreciate your comments, but do not agree with much of what you say. I am going to mark The Netherlands off my list (nothing personal, love Brussels). Maybe Switzerland, my mothers side of the family came from there about 250 years ago.
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