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Silent Service Method

  • #2,341
  • Jun 26, 2009 4:40pm Jun 26, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting drebin
CW: Thanks for your advice here and on your blog, it is awesome.

I took a serious look on the Daily last night (6/25 or 6/26 gmt), there was a pseudo pin bar and 2 recent touches on major resistance and I did not take the trade, because of the minor support or "noise" right to the left of the trade.

Just to be sure, by saying there is too much noise to get through: does that mean too much minor resistance levels to make profit,etc.??

It just isn't clear - which means it's not worth bothering with in my opinion.
  • #2,342
  • Jun 26, 2009 6:47pm Jun 26, 2009 6:47pm
Quoting clockwork71
It just isn't clear - which means it's not worth bothering with in my opinion.

CW: Thanks again for the answer. I am 99% sure of what you mean, but can you post an example or cite a recent trade which seemed clear vs one that wasn't? Is the most recent daily bar on USD/CHF an example of an "unclear" trade? Do you consider a fib or minor resistance an example of a roadblock; thus making it unclear?

By the way, thanks for recommending "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"....good read. I just started it. I am waiting on my order of "Pring on Price Patterns." I am excited to educate myself further.
  • #2,343
  • Jun 26, 2009 7:26pm Jun 26, 2009 7:26pm
Apparently, Mozilla Thunderbird (email client) is too smart for it's own good.

Check the "From" field.

http://i40.tinypic.com/axb7ua.png
  • #2,344
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:20pm Jun 26, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting drebin
CW: Thanks again for the answer. I am 99% sure of what you mean, but can you post an example or cite a recent trade which seemed clear vs one that wasn't? Is the most recent daily bar on USD/CHF an example of an "unclear" trade? Do you consider a fib or minor resistance an example of a roadblock; thus making it unclear?

By the way, thanks for recommending "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"....good read. I just started it. I am waiting on my order of "Pring on Price Patterns." I am excited to educate myself further.

This is 2 examples.....I will post more as time goes on to better explain.

CW
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  • #2,345
  • Jun 27, 2009 1:10pm Jun 27, 2009 1:10pm
These charts are open for any criticism, my weekly review has yielded 3 possible plays, and I'll start with the prettiest.

Silver: Weekly SR, nice pin, also some fib confluence if you draw them. I'll be looking to go long sometime Sunday night with 1% risk on my live account. This one looks that good to me.

http://i40.tinypic.com/r0376u.png

Next up: GBP/AUD, this one I'm not so sure about, but it looks like a swing high rejection at weekly SR, but the red line it's sitting is the second lowest low of a weekly chart going back to December 1996, I'm not that comfortable selling at the bottom, so I'll short it on demo with a tiny position.

http://i42.tinypic.com/2gyan9l.png

Last but not least Disney CFD (DIS), also a nice pin at weekly SR, but not much else going for it fibs or otherwise. Maybe some of you could find more reasons to enter, I am having trouble justifying it.

http://i40.tinypic.com/5txgt2.png

Any opinions would be welcome.
  • #2,346
  • Edited 4:04pm Jun 27, 2009 4:03pm | Edited 4:04pm
Any advice?

I was really excited about this silver play, until I looked at my brokers computations, and the calculate it to the 5th decimal place=1 pip.

So if I buy around $14 and target $16, I end up with something like a 5500 pip stoploss (at about $13.60), and 20K pip TP. I can still take small enough positions to keep my risk at 1%, so I may just go ahead and do it, but the size of these figures really freaks me out. Maybe it doesn't matter as long as my risk profile is unchanged.
  • #2,347
  • Jun 27, 2009 4:24pm Jun 27, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting clockwork71
This is 2 examples.....I will post more as time goes on to better explain.

CW
Thanks CW! I appreciate it. This really helps; I look forward to more examples.
  • #2,348
  • Jun 27, 2009 5:16pm Jun 27, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting Low
These charts are open for any criticism, my weekly review has yielded 3 possible plays, and I'll start with the prettiest.

Silver: Weekly SR, nice pin, also some fib confluence if you draw them. I'll be looking to go long sometime Sunday night with 1% risk on my live account. This one looks that good to me.

http://i40.tinypic.com/r0376u.png

Next up: GBP/AUD, this one I'm not so sure about, but it looks like a swing high rejection at weekly SR, but the red line it's sitting is the second lowest low of a weekly chart going back to December...
I agree with the DIS one.....you could enter, but there are better set ups out there to take. (Remember, we don't worry about what we trade - just that it's a good trade.)

I do like the SLV set up. In fact, I will be watching that one myself. I also read that Gold is trying to form a upside down head and shoulders......so it would make sense, as they both tend to move together.

The second chart - I agree wholeheartedly.

CW
  • #2,349
  • Jun 27, 2009 6:40pm Jun 27, 2009 6:40pm
I've started to expand my trading beyond Forex and into stocks. I've just looked at all the daily pin bars thown up by www.stockcharts.com for the NYSE and NASDAQ on Friday and I've been trying to find tradable setups based on weekly S/R, which brings me to SMBL (see charts). There's a daily bullish PB off the 7.0 PPZ and the 50% fib from the last decent upswing. There's also a significant rise in volume on Friday's PB.

A couple of questions about this potential setup:

1. I've never heard of SMBL (Smart Balance, Inc), but is a daily volume of 3 million plus sufficient liquidity to make the PA reliable enough to trade? Or do you look for greater volume?

2. The weekly chart appears to have PPZs at 7.0, 7.5, 8.0 and 9.5, and then there are a load of bar lows on the daily at 7.25. Have I got this right? If so, then would this be more of a short term trade (or move to BE at 7.25 type of trade)? Or would you just not take it at all?

Cheers
Simon
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  • #2,350
  • Jun 27, 2009 8:48pm Jun 27, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
I've started to expand my trading beyond Forex and into stocks. I've just looked at all the daily pin bars thown up by www.stockcharts.com for the NYSE and NASDAQ on Friday and I've been trying to find tradable setups based on weekly S/R, which brings me to SMBL (see charts). There's a daily bullish PB off the 7.0 PPZ and the 50% fib from the last decent upswing. There's also a significant rise in volume on Friday's PB.

A couple of questions about this potential setup:

1. I've never heard of SMBL...
I don't know this company either. But to be honest, I like the set up. I like the sudden spike in volume, and I like where the pinbar is. I would be alright taking this trade. I know it's not a huge company, but that's alright....I think that 1 million a day is doable. Not as great as 50 million.....but it works. I might take a break a little higher than usual. So....maybe 15 cents instead of 10 on something like IBM.

Beyond that - it should work just as well. You could also look into options....maybe sell a put under that pinbar or something?

Great post by the way....I like how this thread is about different trading, not just forex. I love trading forex, but I have learned that trading is trading, only the nuances change, not the skills/disciplines.

CW
  • #2,351
  • Jun 27, 2009 9:00pm Jun 27, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't know this company either. But to be honest, I like the set up. I like the sudden spike in volume, and I like where the pinbar is. I would be alright taking this trade. I know it's not a huge company, but that's alright....I think that 1 million a day is doable. Not as great as 50 million.....but it works. I might take a break a little higher than usual. So....maybe 15 cents instead of 10 on something like IBM.

Beyond that - it should work just as well. You could also look into options....maybe sell a put under that pinbar or something?...
Thanks Chris! So in this instance would you be moving your stop loss to BE when price touches the resistance at 7.25 or would you wait until price touches the next weekly PPZ at 7.5? The PB isn't the biggest ever seen so I was thinking price might react adversely to the 7.25 area. Is this the right way to think about it or am I barking up the wrong tree?

And what's the advantage of selling a put under the PB rather than just buying the stock on the break of the PB high?

Simon
  • #2,352
  • Jun 27, 2009 9:03pm Jun 27, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
Thanks Chris! So in this instance would you be moving your stop loss to BE when price touches the resistance at 7.25 or would you wait until price touches the next weekly PPZ at 7.5? The PB isn't the biggest ever seen so I was thinking price might react adversely to the 7.25 area. Is this the right way to think about it or am I barking up the wrong tree?

Simon
Because of the possibility of a reaction at that level, you could move to b/e kind of quick.....but I also feel that 7.5 is a more serious area. I am going to watch this one myself on Monday......will be interesting.

By the way, was going to send you a PM....you have them turned off?

CW
  • #2,353
  • Jun 27, 2009 10:11pm Jun 27, 2009 10:11pm
Quoting clockwork71
Because of the possibility of a reaction at that level, you could move to b/e kind of quick.....but I also feel that 7.5 is a more serious area. I am going to watch this one myself on Monday......will be interesting.

By the way, was going to send you a PM....you have them turned off?

CW
Have turned the PMs on now.

So I take it you'd be more inclined to only move to BE as price approaches 7.5 then, especially since 7.25 is a bit too close to an entry around 7.15ish?

I'm still on demo right now, but when you want to place a stock trade do you wait for market open before placing the trade in case there's a gap? Or do you just place your buy/sell stop on Sunday night and let it do its thing at market open?

Simon
  • #2,354
  • Jun 27, 2009 10:41pm Jun 27, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
Have turned the PMs on now.

So I take it you'd be more inclined to only move to BE as price approaches 7.5 then, especially since 7.25 is a bit too close to an entry around 7.15ish?

I'm still on demo right now, but when you want to place a stock trade do you wait for market open before placing the trade in case there's a gap? Or do you just place your buy/sell stop on Sunday night and let it do its thing at market open?

Simon

If I can, I do it at the open. If not - I just place it ahead of time. But I have to be honest, it makes me a bit more comfortable being there when it starts.....

CW
  • #2,355
  • Jun 28, 2009 9:34am Jun 28, 2009 9:34am
Quoting MinceMeat
Unreal, Doctor Khumalo was an SA soccer legend and still is. Believe he is still involved in the game, mainly coaching now. I do recall him spending some time over in the States around 95 / 96, didn't realise he was captaining the Columbus Crew side until reading up on it now.

Anyways, not a bad way to go out for SA. 1 -...

S.A. just scored a really nice goal against Spain. SA looks pretty sharp. Hope they can hold on for 15 minutes.
  • #2,356
  • Jun 28, 2009 9:51am Jun 28, 2009 9:51am
Quoting clockwork71
S.A. just scored a really nice goal against Spain. SA looks pretty sharp. Hope they can hold on for 15 minutes.

Ok.....so what in the hell just happened? Too bad.

S.A. does show some promise though. I think they should get out of the first round none-the-less.

Spain on the other hand, is going to disappoint as usual.

WAIT. SA JUST SCORED AGAIN! WHAT A GAME!

2-2
  • #2,357
  • Jun 28, 2009 11:16am Jun 28, 2009 11:16am
CW
forex is the first and only market I have traded. Do you trade stocks with out indicators? Ive noticed that almost everyone posting charts has indi's is the stock market a place where you need them?
  • #2,358
  • Jun 28, 2009 11:34am Jun 28, 2009 11:34am
Quoting kodflakes
CW
forex is the first and only market I have traded. Do you trade stocks with out indicators? Ive noticed that almost everyone posting charts has indi's is the stock market a place where you need them?

The charts are from a place called stockcharts.com, which by default has a few on.....you can take them off.....but for illustration purposes I think they don't bother.

I will say that the 200 day MA tends to be watched by wall st., but not a sole reason to take a trade. For me, it's all about Volume.

CW
  • #2,359
  • Jun 28, 2009 12:43pm Jun 28, 2009 12:43pm
Anyone looking at GBPCHF.

Its right on the 50 fib and a ppz with I3B.

the 200ema is also close

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  • #2,360
  • Jun 28, 2009 1:30pm Jun 28, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone looking at GBPCHF.

Its right on the 50 fib and a ppz with I3B.

the 200ema is also close

Attachment
Hi there, i'm a relative newbie, and perhaps someone could help me out.
I've got exactly the same on my charts, which was pleasing as it looks as if i'm getting there setting up my charts correctly, with fibs etc!
On this chart, it's clearly in a downtrend from mid Aug to end of Dec, where it puts in a SL, and starts retracing.
It's now been creeping up for the last 6 months or so. So although i understand that, looking at the big picture, it's retracing, and is now at the 50 fib, does that mean if you had bullish PA, in the last 6 mnths, you are trading against the trend?
I suppose it all depends on what TF your'e looking at. If your trading 1hr charts, i presume you would consider yourself to be in an uptrend anyway.
I'm thinking aloud here, and perhaps i've just answered myself.
Sorry for the question, but i'm still trying to get to grips with identifying where i am in a trend.
Any advice welcome.

Regards
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