Damion's Tribute

If strong price action in the form of an evening star / bearish engulfing occurs around the blue region, I would take a short position on this pair.

Hey soya! I'm very pleased to see you start a trading journal. This will be one of the very few threads I'll actively visit. I've been focusing on the daily TF as of late due to my schedule, but I still love this method.

-Hoping to learn

Looking at this one. We have 2 up trendlines there.

Anybody looking at this one?

Daily chart looks really bearish.

Entered this trade earlier, bounce off the broken up TL

You are right. Maybe best to go short on the retest then.

What do you think of this one?

Thanks.

What are your thoughts on this one as well?

Could possibly come back a little lower to test the back of the trendline with such a huge move upwards but the thing is to wait for THAT candle formation.

Am I seeing price like the way you guys are looking at it?

Thanks.

Just the revised chart. Did not take the down trendline into consideration.

It looks good on your chart, but i have a very different chart on mine, price seems trapped between down weekly tl and up daily tl.

Anyway, these 2 weeks have been rough for my trading, i have suffered 4% drawdown on my accont so far, =(

Turned out to be a good trade.

Hi Soya,

Which trade caused the draw down? Would it be possible for you to post your chart and thoughts here.

Mate hats off to you to confess you lost money. Very few people can openly admit that they have lost money. I respect you Soya for your frankness.

Thanks.

Soya,

Just thought I would post my charts for the week.

These are the pairs that I am looking at for the time being.

Please let me know what you think...and yes you were very right about the CAD chart. I only drew the 4HR trendlines.

Excuse some of the comments...

Thanks.

PS: Trendlines - Red is monthly except on 1 chart where I have mentioned 4HR, Yellow is weekly, Green is daily, Blue is 4HR

Thanks aftab for your kind words, I am not an expert in trading, and certainly won't act like one. I like to post charts of real time trades, even on Dra's thread I try to be honest with my charts.

I lost 130 pips on this cj trade. the red lines are my entry and SL. I tried to catch the bounce off the daily trendline on the 4h chart but my SL was hit. I still believe this move is going up after testing the up tl. I was too aggressive, I tried to trade a daily move using an intra day chart to squeeze max pips haha.

I also lost 120 pips on the nj trade. This was a poor trade, counter to daily trend, again, I was being very aggressive, tried to trade a 1:1 down to the up tl.

Both trades could have been avoided if I was more conservative.

Also, my nzdusd trade is running negative 150 pips now. Again, I might be too aggressive here as I took a daily bearish engulfing candle, based on a weekly downtrendline. I am greedy, trying to catch on to the move too early. haha.

But these did not contribute much to my overll drawdown. My main loss was due to a long term GBPCHF trade that just got stopped out 2 weeks ago. Again, I took a daily candle entry based on a weekly setup.... It is time for me to learn

Nice charts,

AUDUSD - There was a good entry for a long position, respect of the daily up tl. My chart seems different from yours, could be due to data differences?

EURGBP - I agree we might be getting a bounce off the weekly up trendline, but we will need confirmation candle on the weekly chart.

EURUSD - on the intraday chart, I think there is still potential for upside, but i don't like to predict price movement, it is too early to make a call. there is much resistance at 1.412, would love to see it break it and complete a nice abcd pattern, then i would look for a retrace at the 4h up tl that you have got on your chart for a possible entry.

GBPUSD - I scalped a 50 pips short at the 1.66 level just a couple of hoours ago. It was a really nice level to fade given the strong resistance at this area. I have no comments on the possible price movement, but I will be looking for a retrace for a long trade opportunity if 1.66 is broken to the upside, with 1.66 level as support.

USDCAD - I like what you have drawn, i am looking for strong price action at the down tl now for a short position. But price movement has been really weak, a bearish engulfing/evening star does not seem to be coming anytime soon, PASS this trade?

USDCHF - this pair is consolidating, stay away. I cant identify a trend here, possibly why you have so many conflicting trendlines

USDJPY - no comments on this chart too.. it's too confusing for me haha, at a glance I just feel UJ has no clear direction now, stay away.

In all, I realize you have been doing alot of analyzes on price prediction. My advice is to not place too much emphasis on such work. The market is random, my personal opinion is there are no tangible benefits in trying to forecast price movement. Even the best institutional research analysts cant predict fx movement accurately (try trading based only on research analyses lol), there is simply no room for such deep level analyzes at our level. Forecasting and trying to predict future price movements will only lead you to be blinded from quality technical signals when they appear, there is a saying that you only find what you want to look for. You also tend to get more emotional when price don't go your way. In essence, trade what you see.

While the market is random, we can exploit certain technical patterns to give us a statistical edge. When I enter any trade, I am prepared to accept that the price can go ANY direction. However, I also understand that statistically, trades taken from the bounce of trendlines with good confirmation candles can lead to winning trades 60% of the time (my winning ratio is 64%). Hence, I try to exploit this advantage, by ensuring my R:R is greater than 1:1, I will be profitable in the long run. What these all mean is that we should concentrate on improving our edge, in other words, learning from past charts and patterns that have worked will probably give us better results than trying to analyze price movement. It also helps to keep us open minded and keep our heads clear when we take trades.

Just my 2 cents... not everyone will agree with me though

I agree with you Soya.

Thanks for posting your loosing trades. One gets to learn more from them than the winning trades.

While you have lost out on trades which you think you could have avoided, I have lost on on not taking trades. I need to loosen up a bit.

While I lost the trendlines on my charts, I have had to redraw them. Surprisingly they are in line with your thoughts on the charts above.

I will post them tomorrow - maybe they could help others to know how important it is to draw the trendlines correctly.

Thanks.

A bearish engulfing is forming nicely for usdcad on the daily chart. Will enter for a short position if it closes at the current level. 1st target would be at 1.124, 2nd target 1.1000 and final target at 1.058. SL @ major resistance 1.18.

That's great to hear, look forward to your charts sharing brother.

divergence on RSI and price is approaching the weekly down trendline. 63.32 level is also serving as major resistance. Would look for bearish price action on the weekly chart for a long term trade.

Waiting for a bullish engulfing.