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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,861
  • Jun 22, 2009 12:42pm Jun 22, 2009 12:42pm
Oops , gang on m.
OK, watching the japanese girl.
Thanks ana girl.
wait till the s hits the fan.

remember , you still gotta dance her.
Don't be arrogant and become the deer on headlights.
  • #7,862
  • Jun 22, 2009 12:51pm Jun 22, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
WOT ? ! now ?!
don't know, be careful, load of the s , is gonna come in this fight.

for me "ops market garden " is airborne.
You may like to do "Battle of bulges", but make sure the bulge is in the right position. Remember your MM strategies.


regards
  • #7,863
  • Jun 22, 2009 12:52pm Jun 22, 2009 12:52pm
3K is confused or I am confused, was thinking cable provided more clues, on the news front UK presented lots of conflicting info.
  • #7,864
  • Jun 22, 2009 12:56pm Jun 22, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting fti
don't know, be careful, load of the s , is gonna come in this fight.

for me "ops market garden " is airborne.
You may like to do "Battle of bulges", but make sure the bulge is in the right position. Remember your MM strategies.


regards
ok roger
  • #7,865
  • Jun 22, 2009 1:29pm Jun 22, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting fti
Oops , gang on m.
OK, watching the japanese girl.
Thanks ana girl.
wait till the s hits the fan.

remember , you still gotta dance her.
Don't be arrogant and become the deer on headlights.
come to think of it, I had bento for dinner, gonna have the yen next...grrrr

mr fti, that avatar...is you ? at first I thought is bruce lee
  • #7,866
  • Jun 22, 2009 1:39pm Jun 22, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
come to think of it, I had bento for dinner, gonna have the yen next...grrrr
paid in yen?
  • #7,867
  • Jun 22, 2009 1:48pm Jun 22, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
come to think of it, I had bento for dinner, gonna have the yen next...grrrr

mr fti, that avatar...is you ? at first I thought is bruce lee
nope that's not bruce, thats me, many many moons ago.

my eagles are having a hard time hands to hands.
here comes rescue.
  • #7,868
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:05pm Jun 22, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting fti
nope that's not bruce, thats me, many many moons ago.

my eagles are having a hard time hands to hands.
here comes rescue.
hahaha no lah i paid in SGD.

that pic sure looks retro hehehe

Sorry I didnt take any position, coz I scared the battle might go into over time mode especially at this time. I am not good at pro-longed wars.
  • #7,869
  • Edited 2:38pm Jun 22, 2009 2:15pm | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
hahaha no lah i paid in SGD.

that pic sure looks retro hehehe

Sorry I didnt take any position, coz I scared the battle might go into over time mode especially at this time. I am not good at pro-longed wars.
still keeping my eyes outfor the long leggy girls,but seems only watching bow legged ladies running around giving the eagles a hard time.

Running out of leg space now, may have to run away to fight another day.

Now keeping some behind enemy lines just in case , she shows.

I have lots of rations(coffee) to last this fight.
Todays, performance is mission critical for the things that may come. But the dance dictates.

regards

To be honest the coiling action is giving me the jitterbugs.
But I gotta see if the leggies will show.
Maybe , comes late, only for the patient, and willed.

As it stands , the odds are in my favour, for now.
Inserted Video


feel like rusputin now.
Inserted Video
  • #7,870
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:02pm Jun 22, 2009 3:02pm
boney m ?

wished I could join you sir, but I need to stick to my schedule, my yield curve has strong correlation with my sleep curve. I want to watch that japanese baby but my body is rejecting. Trading was like cat and mouse for me the whole day.

Goodnight mr fti, c you in a few hours time.

GOD bless

mark
  • #7,871
  • Edited 3:15pm Jun 22, 2009 3:04pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
How's the going?
Sorry haven't been around a a couple.
Had some ironing out some issues with some hard head retail brok ers.
Seems they using every trick up their sleeves to block people arbitrageing the prices. Well they didn't count on anyone could screw them.
What they think people don'ytknow how to cal overnight swaps. trying to screw me there.
Like I said if they annot take the heat, stay out.

careful bull sniffing around.

regards
i do not know if i understand... i was thinking to trade usd-aud long and collect interest from my favorite broker and open a "non-interest" broker account and go short aussie with same lotsize....

is this calling overnight swap???

ï was planning to try this on a demo account.

kind greets
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #7,872
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:07pm Jun 22, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
boney m ?

wished I could join you sir, but I need to stick to my schedule, my yield curve has strong correlation with my sleep curve. I want to watch that japanese baby but my body is rejecting. Trading was like cat and mouse for me the whole day.

Goodnight mr fti, c you in a few hours time.

GOD bless

mark

10 4
Don't get numbed like me.
I am hard core. CU London zone.

regards
  • #7,873
  • Edited 3:31pm Jun 22, 2009 3:10pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting j-pax
i do not know if i understand... i was thinking to trade usd-aud short and collect interest from my favorite broker and open a "non-interest" broker account and go long aussie with same lotsize....

is this calling overnight swap???

ï was planning to try this on a demo account.

kind greets
At the yields this days, swap dn't matter.
Its negative yield after the hair cuts.
deciding factor MUST be the dance.
No other way, my friend.

But of course if you were arbitraging, then cost of carry must be factored in.
Like they say, after its gone thru the banks calculus,after that ,even the grass can't grow.
regards


Hey long cool woman in black dresses , are you gonna show?
during twinlight?

No,j-pax, swap pips are the interest rates differencial you get or pay for short rate carrys depending on the yield differentials. Rates do not play a part unless you carry positions over. Carry could be for long spans if you arbitrage prices. unless you have the opportunity to unwind your hedges intraday. For spot positions the focus is on the "tom next"(tomorrow to the next day) for marking to markets. Short rates can be extremely volitile depending on the yield humps. If your MO is spot, don't worry too much about it.
To get a handle on how this works, you have to understand Money market operations.
  • #7,874
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:33pm Jun 22, 2009 3:33pm
Quoting fti
At the yields this days, swap dn't matter.
Its negative yield after the hair cuts.
deciding factor MUST be the dance.
No other way, my friend.

But of course if you were arbitraging, then cost of carry must be factored in.
Like they say, after its gone thru the banks calculus,after that ,even the grass can't grow.
regards


Hey long cool woman in black dresses , are you gonna show?
during twinlight?
i don't know how to arbitrage. only know it was a mysterious (to me) game george soros played..... your 3kngdms sound like a way of arbitrage to me

i was thinking retail carry trade because sometimes i collect more interest than i gain with my dancing..... this does mean i have to improve my dancing i guess...

thank you for your guidance
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #7,875
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:41pm Jun 22, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting j-pax
i don't know how to arbitrage. only know it was a mysterious (to me) game george soros played..... your 3kngdms sound like a way of arbitrage to me

i was thinking retail carry trade because sometimes i collect more interest than i gain with my dancing..... this does mean i have to improve my dancing i guess...

thank you for your guidance
Yes your ability to dance determines your "face"(directional exposure risk). Sometimes you are accorded +ve carry opportunities. Then you should make haste to gain from both the position risk as well as get interest differential gain for carrying the exposures over the international dateline(GMT)
. Otherwise if the trade is negetive carry , you try manipulate the exposure to zero interest carry. But for the rates now, carry will aways be negative after bro ker hair cut.So It is unlikely to experience +ve carry, even for exotic currencies. So your "face" risk gain is of paramount importance to book health.

regards
  • #7,876
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:49pm Jun 22, 2009 3:49pm
Ai ya , teasing moves.
Squared to fight another day.

Since I am up,will monitor todays closing performance. Like I said mission critical for the dances ahead.Sets the MO & MM bias possibilities.

Since coming out of the Xpanding wedge, had triple flagged, on short charts. Beaware, BIG opportunities awaits. With right tempo into the impulses , it can be extremely rewarding. But of course the dance still dictates.

Note that this is happening on a big picture daily shs. The flags are on your right shoulder.



regards
  • #7,877
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:58pm Jun 22, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting fti
Yes your ability to dance determines your "face"(directional exposure risk). Sometimes you are accorded +ve carry opportunities. Then you should make haste to gain from both the position risk as well as get interest differential gain for carrying the exposures over the international dateline(GMT)
. Otherwise if the trade is negetive carry , you try manipulate the exposure to zero interest carry. But for the rates now, carry will aways be negative after bro ker hair cut.So It is unlikely to experience +ve carry, even for exotic currencies. So your...
thank you for once again destroying one of my dreams/ illusions.... that's why i am still around your thread. one of these is :"there must be an easy way"..... you say: NO and i believe you.

time for bed now

kind greetings
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #7,878
  • Jun 22, 2009 4:14pm Jun 22, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting j-pax
thank you for once again destroying one of my dreams/ illusions.... that's why i am still around your thread. one of these is :"there must be an easy way"..... you say: NO and i believe you.

time for bed now

kind greetings
Sorry to destroy your dreams.
You see at banks, there is a whole section(desk) looking out for swap(interest rates) advantage. And another larger section watching forex risk. It is not easy for a lone trader to compete, unless very experience and handling a large portfolio.
I had see "ocassionally", overnight rates of exotic currencies,as high as 300%pa, it is rare, but much opportunities of much lesser magnitude exist in markets on day to day operation. Unfortunately, access is difficult for retail players,mostly this for interbank and corp plays.

Goodnite
regards
  • #7,879
  • Jun 22, 2009 4:47pm Jun 22, 2009 4:47pm
Hi everyone, been a long day of marching across a mine field. My mine detector was working so it was a positive day with a few pips. Hope you all are trading well. Time for a rest and then back at it for London. May not be around for a few days but may check back later. Not sure of trends lately so working some charts in both directions and jumping in when it makes sense.
  • #7,880
  • Jun 22, 2009 5:10pm Jun 22, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi everyone, been a long day of marching across a mine field. My mine detector was working so it was a positive day with a few pips. Hope you all are trading well. Time for a rest and then back at it for London. May not be around for a few days but may check back later. Not sure of trends lately so working some charts in both directions and jumping in when it makes sense.
Hi GEfx,
You survived the minefields.
The thing is that we are at the apex of a triangle on the horly and the short chart is sitting on the triple support.
Tokyo's play seems critical. If what I am expecting comes, London may be too late to get into the flow of things. BUT thats alot of ifs.
All I can say is that Tokyo seems to have much to ponder, and I would be ibclined to believe, the paper orders, will be in the market. If you do have the energies, Tokyo may be very interesting today.

regards
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