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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #2,461
  • Edited 8:24pm Jun 21, 2009 3:33am | Edited 8:24pm
http://i002.radikal.ru/0906/a6/8ecf53c5a132.gif
gj1w
http://s40.radikal.ru/i089/0906/65/faff4c07cee9.gif

http://s58.radikal.ru/i160/0906/fe/38fb6d1b78cb.gif
  • #2,462
  • Jun 21, 2009 7:48am Jun 21, 2009 7:48am
I've read it & it's interesting, I picked & edited a part of the book which I think it would be useful for the readers of this thread.
it's from the chapter 7 [using setups]:

[ Setups refer to conditions that must occur before other action is
taken. They are an essential aspect of most entry and exit portions
of any system. ]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[ I recently consulted with an expert in Elliott Wave. He claimed that he was right on about 70 percent of his ideas, but only 30 percent of his trades made money He typically had a very tight stop below his exit to preserve his capital. Quite frequently, the market would take him right out of a position. Thus, he would have to enter three or four times in order to capitalize on the idea.
In addition, by the time the market went against him three or four times, he was often too nervous to reenter the market and would subsequently miss the move. Other times, he would be right about the idea, but the market would start to move so violently that he felt there was too much risk to take the move.
Essentially, this trader’s problem was confusing what is a setup (i.e., the right conditions with respect to Elliott Wave analysis) with an entire trading system. He had no real entry criteria and he had no way of capitalizing on the great reliability of his idea because he got stopped out too often. ]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[ If you learn one critical thing from this book, it should be that a setup is about 10 percent (or less) of your trading system.
Most people will place 90 percent of their emphasis on finding the right setups, but setups are actually one of the least important parts of the system. ]
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is there any other recommendation?
  • #2,463
  • Edited 3:44pm Jun 21, 2009 3:30pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting Phi
I've read it & it's interesting, I picked & edited a part of the book which I think it would be useful for the readers of this thread.
it's from the chapter 7 [using setups]:

[ Setups refer to conditions that must occur before other action is
taken. They are an essential aspect of most entry and exit portions
of any system. ]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[ I recently consulted with an expert in Elliott Wave. He claimed that he was right on about 70 percent of his ideas, but only 30 percent of his trades...
For books there are so many.. Its better not to get confuse.. Just focus on few strategies combine with. .. Elliot wave.. to get positive result..No system works for ever..though..!

The problem with above Trader is the Discipline and Emotions..

True set ups are deceiving, also Pivots. . indicators .. etc etc are just distraction to traders.. some times.

In markets one should expect the unexpected..within limits.

Anyways this thread is not for discussions. so I will leave it at that..

All the best to your Trading.

thanks.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #2,464
  • Jun 21, 2009 3:46pm Jun 21, 2009 3:46pm
  • #2,465
  • Jun 21, 2009 8:15pm Jun 21, 2009 8:15pm
hi all,


my usdcad weekly chart..

comments are welcome
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad weekly.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #2,466
  • Edited Jun 22, 2009 12:26am Jun 21, 2009 11:58pm | Edited Jun 22, 2009 12:26am
Good Morning all,

What are you expecting to see the GBP/USD do this session?

From my 4H count, I've got 3 waves up (wave 4 on 1H chart completed @ 16446, but not on the 4H chart), so that would leave one more move above the last high of 1.6559, which I think will likely fall into the 1.6630-1.6660 zone.

If I'm correct, that will make wave B of IV of Y complete, and from there the move should be bearish to the 1.5800 area again to complete C if IV (38.2% retracement).

That said, if price action breaks below the 1.6450 area, I think we may find that (currently) we have only seen a and b of the wave 4 on the 4H chart, which would allow for a move down into the 1.6300 area before the wave 4 is complete and the move up to the 1.6630-1.6660 zone takes place.

One way or the other we'll need to see some bearish (or at least sideways) movement on the 4H chart before we go much higher. If we don't see any majoy pullback on the 4H chart I don't expect price action to get much above 1.6616's resistence level.

Where do you sit on things?

(Sorry for all the edits/additions...just trying to get it all in as I see it)
  • #2,467
  • Jun 22, 2009 12:34am Jun 22, 2009 12:34am
The grand synopsis of my lengthy (and edited post) is that I'm looking for short the GBP/USD because (by my understanding) there has to be a good pullback coming before any further upside potential can come about.

Currently, (again, by my understanding) wave 5 on the 1H chart is coming into completion. Wave 3 on the 15 min. chart is almost done, and a pullback for wave 4 should materialize. Wave 4 on the 5 min chart is currently underway, which I'm expecting will complete in the 1.6473 area.
  • #2,468
  • Jun 22, 2009 1:48am Jun 22, 2009 1:48am
Looks like we have a nice bearish monday
  • #2,469
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:01am Jun 22, 2009 2:01am
Quoting 200ema
Good Morning all,

What are you expecting to see the GBP/USD do this session?

From my 4H count, I've got 3 waves up (wave 4 on 1H chart completed @ 16446, but not on the 4H chart), so that would leave one more move above the last high of 1.6559, which I think will likely fall into the 1.6630-1.6660 zone.

If I'm correct, that will make wave B of IV of Y complete, and from there the move should be bearish to the 1.5800 area again to complete C if IV (38.2% retracement).

That said, if price action breaks below the 1.6450 area, I think we may...


Hello ema
thanks for your great analysis .
can I ask you that you also explain by picture ?
  • #2,470
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:27am Jun 22, 2009 2:27am
Ok. Here is my 4H chart EW count for you to see.

The OrangeRed numbers (i, ii, iii, iv, v) are my likely count for the 4 hour chart.

I think the rest explains itself.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h chart ew count.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #2,471
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:32am Jun 22, 2009 2:32am
...I only put on the most current count data, not much for past counts.

If you want to see my FULL count (for the 4H chart) I'll post it too, it will just take some time for me to get all of it on there.
  • #2,472
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:51am Jun 22, 2009 2:51am
Just noted another error in my original post. In my original post I price should drop to 1.6300... That should have been 1.6400 as the top of my wave i is at 1.6397.

Sorry about that.....

I am now long the GBP/USD at 1.6415.
  • #2,473
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:09am Jun 22, 2009 3:09am
Quoting 200ema
Ok. Here is my 4H chart EW count for you to see.

The OrangeRed numbers (i, ii, iii, iv, v) are my likely count for the 4 hour chart.

I think the rest explains itself.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Hope this helps.
Hi 200 ema, great to see your chart finally . Your count makes sense to me. Hope it plays out.

Can b terminate beyond the start of a? I can't see a flat correction here.
  • #2,474
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:11am Jun 22, 2009 3:11am
All the signals are bearish
  • #2,475
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:18am Jun 22, 2009 3:18am
Quoting Phi
All the signals are bearish
Good morning. I'm struggling to find an alternative count. Do you have one?
  • #2,476
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:19am Jun 22, 2009 3:19am
Quoting 4cfx
Hi 200 ema, great to see your chart finally . Your count makes sense to me. Hope it plays out.

Can b terminate beyond the start of a? I can't see a flat correction here.
My price projections for wave v of (b) are 1.6658-1.6700
  • #2,477
  • Edited 3:44am Jun 22, 2009 3:26am | Edited 3:44am
Hi Phi,

I agree. The overall momentum of the day is bearish, but I trade both directions, and tend to hold my own rather nicely.

That said, the 4H chart is still working out the wave iv though and I still expect price to come back down, and (dispite EW theory) I won't be too surprised to see price action make a new low below the current move of 1.6406, because the market momentum has some steam left to the downside. By Tom Demark methods, we should see price get down into the 1.6330 area before the bearish move runs out of steam, and 1H chart TDTL (Tom DeMark Trend Line) agrees with the 4H and gives me a price of 1.6308.

So....which will be correct EW or TDTL???
  • #2,478
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:43am Jun 22, 2009 3:43am
Quoting 200ema
My price projections for wave v of (b) are 1.6658-1.6700
Hi 200ema, you have confused me now. Do you mean wave v of (c) of b?

wave a terminated at 6620, wave b terminated 6179 and we are now in the process of completing wave (v) of c. So according to your projection, wave c will terminate beyond the start of wave a, which means a flat correction.

But wave b was nowhere near the starting point of wave a, so can it still be a flat. And if not, what is it?

Apologies for my numerous questions but you seem very knowledgeable on EW so maybe you can help me clear my thoughts.
  • #2,479
  • Jun 22, 2009 4:08am Jun 22, 2009 4:08am
Quoting 4cfx
Hi 200ema, you have confused me now. Do you mean wave v of (c) of b?

wave a terminated at 6620, wave b terminated 6179 and we are now in the process of completing wave (v) of c. So according to your projection, wave c will terminate beyond the start of wave a, which means a flat correction.

But wave b was nowhere near the starting point of wave a, so can it still be a flat. And if not, what is it?

Apologies for my numerous questions but you seem very knowledgeable on EW so maybe you can help me clear my thoughts.
Hi 4cfx,

I'll try to clarify what I've posted, but remember that (all things said and done) this is only my interpretation of EW and may well be wrong....Only price action can prove me right.

...anyway.... IF what I expect takes place we'll see wave c of (b) exceed the high of wave a AND the high of wave (a) or darn close to it.

I don't intend to hold any medium term short GBP/USD positions until I see indications that a top is in for wave (b). Now, that said, I tend to be a scalp trader and take multiple small profits as the market moves up and down...that just me and my way of trading and like I said I tend to hold my own.

With regard to EW terminology, I believe what we would be looking at is an "Expanded Flat". By definition, it is a flat where wave B terminates beyond the starting point of wave A, and wave C end below the end point of wave A....So, both extremes in price wave A are exceeded.

Does that help?
  • #2,480
  • Jun 22, 2009 4:13am Jun 22, 2009 4:13am
The 1H chart TDTL has closed off and put in a bottom....and it looks like price may be starting to work its way into a triangle of some form? Whatever it is, it's still corrective.
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