Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

lol! i was actually thinking of a 65 for g-j, and i am preparing my money bags... will need them when i'm gonna buy a loaf of bread.
tough times are just around the corner.

p.s. and i bet they are gonna find a way to permanently ban us out of market profits - either more absurd regulations or just a completely incoherent-erratic-crazy market behavior.

Good fundamental commentry..

But technically... what about the Bullish hammer on Quarterly chart.. How should this hammer be cancelled. What we need is strong reversal on Weekly.. Monthly.. Daily.. Other wise it is a strong reversal sign at the bottom of the TREND.

I am pretty sure it will retrace down. but it will be limited. Up move seems more favourable.. to reach or breach the all time resistence Trend line around 179xx-- 181xx.. IMO.

Euro is not gonna become the currency of the world ( unless gbp merges with Euro) . Us will not let this happen.. If it does then Welcome Amero.. or better yet.. One WORLD.. One ruler...One currency.!!

Stronger currencies would be Pound.. Swiss frank..And as Peter Shiff Mentioned.. Singapore Dollar.( something to do with China).

What I need to explore on this Chart( 30 years) is ...What happened at and after great depression.. or during and after recession.. to the Pound!!

Lets not have any Crazy Biases as of yet..( keep the thought in the back of our Head) . Trade our charts!!

Are you all ready for phase 2? 158/59/60/61/62 to 117 and below? My shorts are loaded and Ive been chewing Karmo pills for 3 weeks now....

Let the show begin...

It will not be euro ... but a euro based currency ... I bet within 10 years we see this. China have been slowly getting rid of their USD bonds and US allowing them time for this.

US wants to have a single north American currency . They have more to gain owning Canada's resources and by having single monetary policy for Canada us and mexico , they will essentially own them.

too much speculations going on with this pair.
well here is my thoughts on the pair

The overall trend is bearish and a healthy one. the aggressive bullish drive is a retracement to for further dip.

well price is at a decision zone now, 38.2 of the second leg of abcd count move, anything could happen here.

but here are possible scenario

1. range from present level to 150
2. a bounce up to 178.68 and struggles to either break the triangle
3. a break of the black TL which will signal strong bearish move

for now am on the sideline, waiting for price to tell me wot's gwam

Yup.. THIS WILL BE THE ROBBERY OF THE CENTURY!!

No forex in future... lol.

They will trade world currency for GOLD..( MYTH)

The new GOLD will be fresh clean water. Russia and Canada shall dominate this area

The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen its growing debt burden.

Sure, everyone understands the potential inflationary implications of the ultra-stimulative policy actions taken by the Fed. But inflation is unlikely to become an issue for quite some time. And when it does appear, then a judgment can be made as to how the Fed is managing it. Plus, other major countries have taken similar paths and will be facing the same challenges.

Nonetheless, huge stakeholders in the dollar like Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries), the fastest growing emerging market economies of the past decade, have used the opportunity to stir the global power pot — making threats to move out of the dollar.


In total, the BRIC countries own nearly 32 percent of the U.S. Treasury market.

These countries hold a combined total of nearly 42 percent of the world's currencies. China has $2 trillion worth of currency reserves. Russia has $400 billion ... India $260 billion and Brazil $206 billion. And combined they own nearly 32 percent of the U.S. Treasury market. So their threats tend to make some waves.

First it was China that called for a new world reserve currency just prior to the April G-20 meeting. Since then, those comments have been reinforced and repealed many times. And the issue was ignored at the G-20 meeting.

Now Russia is piling on, calling for a new "supranational" currency and recommending that the BRIC countries begin trading in local currencies, abandoning dollar-based trading.

Russian President Medvedev said, "We have to consolidate the international monetary system, not only through the consolidation of the dollar but the creation of new reserve currencies."

But these comments out of the Russian administration have been balanced with just as many contradicting, dollar-supportive statements.

So is this simply political posturing or do these countries have the clout to make such assertions — and make things happen?

In just a matter of days, we will reveal the timing approach that Wall Street investors have been keeping a secret for years. This scientific discovery has helped predict nearly every major turning point in the stock market since the 1970's!


In reality, politicians do not determine a world reserve currency, markets do. And if the dollar continues to be the globally accepted currency of trade and store of value, then the majority of global governments and investors will continue to denominate capital in dollars.

Can Emerging Market Economies
Make a Credible Movement Against the Dollar?

It's no secret that the BRIC countries want more global political influence. In fact, they explicitly asked for it this week.

This is their attempt to strike while the iron is hot, to win market share of global influence. And the dollar is the media whipping boy ... a perfect political tool. But then again, these countries have a large stake in the dollar, so the punches they throw have to be calculated and followed with counters and ambiguity.

It's also important to remember that we're talking about a group of countries that could sink back into economic anonymity just as quickly as they emerged.

Take a look at Russia for example ...

When the housing market began to fall in the U.S. and the financial system began to crack, the mantra of decoupling was making the rounds. Experts thought that emerging super-growth economies could operate independently of the U.S. and the world economy would keep on plugging away.

That was quickly and clearly proven wrong. And there was no country hit harder than Russia ...


When the global demand for oil and natural gas collapsed, so did prices and the Russian stock market.
First there was the collapse in global demand for oil and other commodities, followed by the collapse in prices. This sent Russia's economy, heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, into a tailspin. The country's stock market tumbled. In fact, after climbing 6600 percent between 1998 and 2008, Russian stocks fell 80 percent in just eight months last year — one of the steepest and deepest stock market declines in the world!

And as money was fleeing the Russian stock market, it was fleeing their currency, too. The ruble came under attack losing 58 percent of its value. The freefall stopped only after the Russian central bank stepped in to defend the ruble's value by burning through more than 1/3 of its currency reserves buying rubles and selling more than $200 billion worth of dollars. The outlook for Russia was looking very bleak.

And it wasn't just Russia that was exposed ... it was the entire BRIC contingent! From peak to trough Chinese stocks lost 73 percent, Indian stocks lost 64 percent and Brazilian stocks lost 60 percent.

What a Difference
Three Months Make ...

With the total collapse of the global financial system seemingly averted, the global risk appetite has now improved. And the perception of recovery is breathing life back into commodities, global asset values and emerging market investments.
This week the BRIC countries gathered. And on the premise of diversifying their exposure to the dollar, they proposed buying each other's local–currency denominated bonds.

So instead of buying U.S. Treasuries, they think a safer bet would be a healthy mix, including the likes of Russian debt?

Boy, that sounds like a bad idea to me!

After all, Russia is just 11 years removed from defaulting on $40 billion in government debt.

Just Posturing?

In the face of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and unprecedented U.S. policy actions, the U.S. dollar is still up 14 percent, against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, from its all-time lows last year. On top of that, as you can see in the chart below, the dollar remains in an uptrend ...



Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, currencies in the BRIC region have been decimated, with the exception of China — which has manipulated its currency in a virtual flat-line against the dollar since the crisis commenced.

Today, even after some recovery, the Russian ruble remains down 35 percent, the Brazilian real is down 27 percent and the Indian rupee is down 23 percent versus the dollar.

But most importantly, from peak to trough these currencies lost 58 percent, 69 percent and 33 percent respectively against the dollar at the height of the crisis. Take a look at my second chart below, and you'll realize how drastic this fall was.



Source: Bloomberg

This underscores the vulnerability of these less developed, less dynamic economies and emphasizes the fragile nature of their financial markets and currencies.

Despite all of the tough talk, the dollar is holding firm and central bank reserves continue to build dollar exposure at an increasing rate. So beware of the scare headlines — the dollar's demise is greatly exaggerated.

[quote=rgitt05;2818544]

Despite all of the tough talk, the dollar is holding firm and central bank reserves continue to build dollar exposure at an increasing rate. So beware of the scare headlines — the dollar's demise is greatly exaggerated.[/quote]



I agree, they have been forcing the strong dollar policy for around a decade at least, and to do that they drove it into the dirt, and from the ashes the Dove shall soar to great heights.

hmmm Gj heading towards support level 157.57. lets see if it breaks probably go more down

or low volume shake out before move to 160.5

I hit long 158.10 , closed 158.40 , waiting for low vol test 158 or break back into value range 158.4 for move to 159.17 , if gj spends 1 hour in the value area ... 158.4 or just above 80- % chance it will move to 159.2

i can see all side of market moves.
if we are realistic, lets say that market can do 3 move, in this level , upside or downside will be wild, and Ranging in 154.xx- 161.xx is predictable too.
on the down side we may see head & shoulders, so it will be profitable.
guys who wants go short , you can go short on break of 157.36 and SL at 159.6X ,if your capital is large enough, if not you can go on break of 154.90 .
on the upside we can say that this retrace move from 161.xx is a retrace to preceding congestion , and if we break this level we will go higher.
i still believe in more upside move so as you can see i will buy break of 159.25 , and please do not follow. ( i'll monitoring for further decisions)

I am expecting upside too, just got long 158.08, SL 157.70.. I think by wednesday we possibly break or bounce from 162.55.. but a retest is my thinking.

Looks like the start of pending witchy twitchy hour!! we might break 162.xx Today!!?

I am looking for 38% retracement at least... 158.64..

on the down side if we breaks 154.90 , i can see 149.xx (149.4x) first , then 147.00 , if we gets to 147.00 it means that we broked the trend line, so we must see more lower prices, may 118.80 again!!!!
but my outlook is still upside.
please trade with care.

may be, may not
,
if not,
we may see 156.50 today , and then 160.2x tommorrow, if breaks then we will see 162.xx Tuesday or wednesday.

on the down side becareful about 153.00 area too.

Lets see how the weekly candle closes tonight??

3 Hrs left.

Last thursday, auslanco said price will spike up (stop hunt) 159.60 before it goes down. and the next day was friday, and what was the high? 159.61. Aus is and always will be king. Piters is the prince next in line to take the throne. majority of others on this thread are just wanna be's

Did He say where its gonna go after that??