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Can I make 40% per month consistently

  • #41
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:50am Apr 25, 2007 3:50am
We have negative divergence on 1 hr MACD histogram, neg div on 30 min MACD and stoch, neg div on 15 min MACD and stoch.

So we should have a good chance of price going down, would just like that trendline that now gives support at around 2.0030 to break.
  • #42
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:10am Apr 25, 2007 4:10am
Whilst price is doing its post news sort out does anyone have any good jokes?

I'm not at work today, manage to do this on a news day when theres no set ups that I see that fit my system.

Oh yes on that divergence thing, whilst it does indicate generally that price should come down it doesn't show by how much - 1 pip or 100. Which is why I'm waiting for the TL to break.
  • #43
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:23am Apr 25, 2007 4:23am
If GBPUSD gets up to 2.0060 and fails then we'll have had a triple top, at this stage all the divergences are holding. Will be looking to sell should price again turnaround from this level.
  • #44
  • Edited 7:48am Apr 25, 2007 5:38am | Edited 7:48am
Since 2.30 am est today GBPUSD has had a series of ever so slightly lower highs. Now if that damn could break we may see some nice moves down, that trend line has been giving good support, in the 2.0030 area now.

Of course it could be thousands of bank traders, all doing nothing waiting for the news chatting to their mates whilst I watch the paint dry, wind my watch and say good boy to the dog for the 8000th time.

Of course Murphy's law could apply price could hit a run blast through and run up to 2.130.

Good boy Hooch, damn 8001. Patience is a virtue.
  • #45
  • Edited 12:35am Apr 26, 2007 12:13am | Edited 12:35am
Sometimes I just crack myself up. Yesterday was full of news, I love news days (actually I don't I'm just trying some positive thinking) OK so I love the news days. It was very frustrating for me not a trade in sight that I liked.

The whole day watching the screens had a day off work even.

Now if I'd only been watching our good friend USDCAD, 8am est yesterday!!!

30 min and 15 min charts. If I talk about divergence in future this is what I mean. You'll see price has gone slightly up, on both charts you'll see in various places stoch, W's % R either level or waving down. On both time frames even!

Thats divergence, I'll trade that every day of the week and twice on Sundays (if I traded on Sundays). You can get divergence on MACD and its histogram same applies.

There's no one stop solution I feel but if I had to pick one it would be tough but I'll trade divergence when I see it. So next time I talk about divergence this is what I mean. See divergence, wait for your trigger of choice - here I have good old daily fozzy RSI crossing SMA and W's % R crossing the -50 line.

Oh yes the 20 pips a day, yesterday was a gimmie if only I was watching at the time. Really guys divergence is a gimmie.

Sorry see next post for screenshot didn't come out here for some reason.
  • #46
  • Apr 26, 2007 12:17am Apr 26, 2007 12:17am
Take 2 on loading the screenshot. Sorry normal service will be resumed shortly.
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  • #47
  • Apr 26, 2007 2:48am Apr 26, 2007 2:48am
I'm just wondering if you're still on track to make 40% monthly, and if so, what percentage of your account equity are you risking per trade.
  • #48
  • Edited 6:39am Apr 26, 2007 3:04am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting aicccia
I'm just wondering if you're still on track to make 40% monthly, and if so, what percentage of your account equity are you risking per trade.
Unfortunately not on track winnings wise but I'm still learning lots (no pun intended). I've only taken 1 trade this week and I hit that one outta the ball park for a massive 4 pips.

I was watching GBPUSD this am at around 2.0050 wanted it to get a bit nearer the resistance level for the last week of 2.0060. So I left it and left it and boom 2.0029 as I write, was I too greedy waiting for a better entry.

I try to get entries on GBPUSD not bigger than 25 pips, so today with a pivot level at 2.0060 and price struggling to get through this general area again today (as it has for the last week) I could have taken a trade at 2.0050 with a stop of say 15 pips (on a $10000 acc).

Would have been on target for the magic 20 pips per day. Price stopped to the pip on the 100 day EMA on 30 min chart, a good place to look to exit.

Oh yes if I miss a trade like the last USDCAD I'll post a chart and explain how I see things so that over time people will see what my trading style is.

My trading plan is in place, its some of the execution that I have to work on and work day getting in the way. Its 10 am here. Gotta go!!
  • #49
  • Edited 5:29am Apr 26, 2007 5:06am | Edited 5:29am
Hey don't you just love this business of forex that we are all trying to master.

Just got the chance at work in my lunch time to have a look at the GBPUSD trade I was looking at earlier. We ended up dropping 60 pips and I missed out because at 2.0050 I wanted it just to push up a little to get a better entry, ha. Lesson number 2472 learned!

If a large chunck of your trading plan is divergence (we had on W's % R 30 min and on stoch 15 min), stoch OB crossed turned both time frames, W's % R OB crossed turned 2 time frames, daily fozzy cross on 30 min, W's % R cross -50 line 15 min, at a pivot level 2.0060, in and around a resistance area for the last week, trend line breaks all over the place. With this many reasons to sell then who cares about a couple of pips!!!!!!!!!!!!

As I write we are at 1.9960 that couple of pips cost me lots, a 90 pip lesson.

NEEEXXXXXXT trade please.

Ooops wrong chart added pls see the next post. Can't see how to get a chart off if the wrong one is added.
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  • #50
  • Apr 26, 2007 5:09am Apr 26, 2007 5:09am
Sorry this is the correct chart, I had too many saved.
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  • #51
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:36am Apr 26, 2007 10:36am
Hi Vantage.

I'm trying to follow along.
Can I check the setup. What is the indicator used for the williams' % R. I've dropping the 3 W%R's into one window, and just end up with 3 different line making it hard to line up divergence. You seem to have one line in the window that changes colour. Can you help me out here.

Ta

Yellow
  • #52
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:58am Apr 26, 2007 10:58am
Quoting Yellow2
Hi Vantage.

I'm trying to follow along.
Can I check the setup. What is the indicator used for the williams' % R. I've dropping the 3 W%R's into one window, and just end up with 3 different line making it hard to line up divergence. You seem to have one line in the window that changes colour. Can you help me out here.

Ta

Yellow
Hi Yellow2
I run 2 computers a laptop that I have my broker, email, FF and charts for screenshots and another computer with multiple screens basically just for my trading charts. When I take screenshots having the multiple W's % R on looked a bit squashed but I will add on to be consistent. Hopefully they will come out.

W's % R settings: 14 green up red down, 28 black and 56 blue.

In the normal course the 14 will react quickest and thats why I have the 2 different colours. If they are all overlaid thats great because it means the longer time frames have also gone OB or OS. When they all turn it usually means a nice trade.

If say the 14 has gone OB and the other 2 have stayed below the -50 line it usually means the longer term time frames are still negative and the turning down of the 14 is again a good sell.

I hope this makes sense.

Hopefully this example from this morning GBPUSD 1 hr chart (still kicking myself over this missed trade) will clearly show all 3 W's % R grouped OB and turned. All 3 W's % R turn 2 hit the -50 line, Daily Fozzy RSI crosses the SMA divergence on MACD can anyone tell why I didn't get this one. I'm stunned.
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  • #53
  • Edited 11:25am Apr 26, 2007 11:07am | Edited 11:25am
Hi Yellow2 again

Just wanted to clarify that (for me at least) W's % R divergence is not as common as MACD or stoch divergence. If you do get divergence on % R great but don't wait for it.

You are much more likely to see div on MACD, MACD histogram and 8,3,3 is great for stoch. I have looked at several other stoch settings and always come back to this one.
  • #54
  • Apr 26, 2007 11:59am Apr 26, 2007 11:59am
Thanks for your reply, you've clarified heaps.

Yellow
  • #55
  • Apr 26, 2007 12:09pm Apr 26, 2007 12:09pm
I apologise if the reason you missed the trade was because you were stunned by the World Cup cricket score yesterday.

yellow

"Go Aussie"
  • #56
  • Edited 1:40pm Apr 26, 2007 1:19pm | Edited 1:40pm
Quote
Just got the chance at work in my lunch time to have a look at the GBPUSD trade I was looking at earlier. We ended up dropping 60 pips and I missed out because at 2.0050 I wanted it just to push up a little to get a better entry, ha. Lesson number 2472 learned!
If you were watching my journal, i was in the EXACT same situation where i was waiting for it to get closer to 2.0060 again

Sorry i forgot to send you the major bids and offer levels last night i was writing a big paper till 5 while trying to trade while being sleep deprived (not the best combination lol!)

But here were the major levels of last night:
Offers:
1. 2.0070-75 (heaviest offers)
2. 2.0060 (resonably heavy offers- said this was pretty strong due it capping the rally of the week)
3. If 2.0075 was breached then price would see heavy resistance at 2.0100

Bids:
1. 2.0020 (intraday bids, not as heavy)
2. 2.0000 (resonably heavy)
3. 2.0050-60 (heaviest bids)

When i got the information price was at 2.0050 so i waited for it to reach about 57ish... just like you lol

since the week hasnt had one good trend, i figured id enter the market at 2.0010... i dont know why i did this considering a long term support trendline had just been broken around 2.0040 and was destined to come down.
Trend manager then gave the signal to go short in the 1.9980's but i held my stop which was right below the heaviest bids level at 1.9950-60.
Price actually bounced up when it reached that level, but the retracement wasnt enough to stop me from getting burned.

So, this was the first time this week that i chose to ignore trend manager and what do ya know lol theres finally a trend that went over my target strategy by less than 10 pips for a profit of about 100pips.

So yea i just wanted to let you know not to feel bad about missing that trade, because i not only missed the exact trade you did, but got burned by trying to go against it

The heavy bids and offers levels were not as effective as seen before, but still the level of 2.0060 where he said was capping the rally, did indeed cap the rally, which would of helped us both had price come close enough.. o well you live and you learn
  • #57
  • Apr 26, 2007 1:23pm Apr 26, 2007 1:23pm
Oh one more thing

price is getting closer to a long term support trendline that start 3/14/07

I will wait for the bids and offer information tonite and will trade this trendline accordingly if the bids are in the right place.

If not i will just wait for the next trend manager signal because i need to stay disciplined with the strategy that made me profitable in my previous demo journal

oh and i tried to log into that link you sent me but it keeps giving me the error saying it cant open my audio input
  • #58
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:56pm Apr 26, 2007 10:56pm
Quoting Yellow2
I apologise if the reason you missed the trade was because you were stunned by the World Cup cricket score yesterday.

yellow

"Go Aussie"
No excuses for the cricket or for the trade!! I have 2 possible solutions, we get a whole load of new players or I move to Perth. Perth does seem perfect. If my time calcs are correct London open is around 2pm there and Asian session would be in the day get some good entries on the yen pairs (have a look at the Williams % R thread) and have free time in the morning!!

Oh yeah and inherit some good rugby and cricket teams - just joking.
  • #59
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:58pm Apr 26, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting brxxt
If you were watching my journal, i was in the EXACT same situation where i was waiting for it to get closer to 2.0060 again

Sorry i forgot to send you the major bids and offer levels last night i was writing a big paper till 5 while trying to trade while being sleep deprived (not the best combination lol!)

But here were the major levels of last night:
Offers:
1. 2.0070-75 (heaviest offers)
2. 2.0060 (resonably heavy offers- said this was pretty strong due it capping the rally of the week)
3. If 2.0075 was breached then price would see heavy resistance at 2.0100

Bids:
1. 2.0020 (intraday bids, not as heavy)
2. 2.0000 (resonably heavy)
3. 2.0050-60 (heaviest bids)

When i got the information price was at 2.0050 so i waited for it to reach about 57ish... just like you lol

since the week hasnt had one good trend, i figured id enter the market at 2.0010... i dont know why i did this considering a long term support trendline had just been broken around 2.0040 and was destined to come down.
Trend manager then gave the signal to go short in the 1.9980's but i held my stop which was right below the heaviest bids level at 1.9950-60.
Price actually bounced up when it reached that level, but the retracement wasnt enough to stop me from getting burned.

So, this was the first time this week that i chose to ignore trend manager and what do ya know lol theres finally a trend that went over my target strategy by less than 10 pips for a profit of about 100pips.

So yea i just wanted to let you know not to feel bad about missing that trade, because i not only missed the exact trade you did, but got burned by trying to go against it

The heavy bids and offers levels were not as effective as seen before, but still the level of 2.0060 where he said was capping the rally, did indeed cap the rally, which would of helped us both had price come close enough.. o well you live and you learn
Yeah I saw that you also missed, lucky for us theres another chance today and everyday coming!!!!!

This bid/offer stuff looks very interesting keep it coming.
  • #60
  • Apr 26, 2007 11:01pm Apr 26, 2007 11:01pm
Quoting brxxt
Oh one more thing

price is getting closer to a long term support trendline that start 3/14/07

I will wait for the bids and offer information tonite and will trade this trendline accordingly if the bids are in the right place.

If not i will just wait for the next trend manager signal because i need to stay disciplined with the strategy that made me profitable in my previous demo journal

oh and i tried to log into that link you sent me but it keeps giving me the error saying it cant open my audio input
I understand the big dogs are long $ and short the pound on COT - committments of traders - so whilst there could be some/a good deal of jumping around at this level could be GBPUSD is maybe at the start of a trend down???

If anyone has other views please comment, especially re COT.
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