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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #15,001
  • Jun 9, 2009 11:36pm Jun 9, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting johnscorpion
GBP/JPY's break of 158.56 minor resistance suggests that pullback from 160.44 has possibly completed at 154.85 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside. Further break of 160.44 high will confirm recent rise has resumed and should target 55 weeks EMA at 162.21 next. On the downside, below 156.61 minor support will indicate that fall from 160.44 is still in progress and argue that a short term top is in place already. Deeper decline could then be seen to 150.86 resistance turned support.
In the bigger picture, there is no sign of topping...
nice analysis....tq. Good luck to u.

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At this moment, I believed market in progress to complete wave 5 either in yellow or magenta. Favourably, I'm looking forward for any possibility to a truncated wave 5 in yellow before expecting for a bearish reversal trend to complete major wave 5. But please be careful since we may see an impulsive wave 5 to complete major wave 4 in magenta. A breakout either to the lower red trendline or white/yellow critical line would unfold the more likely trend to be perform later. Good luck.
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  • #15,002
  • Jun 10, 2009 9:35am Jun 10, 2009 9:35am
At this moment, please be noted that the alt count in white is already invalid. Therefore I believed market in progress to complete subwave 5 in 4 before expecting for a major bearish continuation trend to complete major wave 5 either in yellow or magenta. Preferably, I'm looking forward for any opportunity towards a truncated wave 5 in yellow. Otherwise we may see another bullish continuation rally to complete subwave 5 in magenta. Good luck.
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  • #15,003
  • Jun 14, 2009 11:10pm Jun 14, 2009 11:10pm
At this moment, I'm looking for a bearish trend either to perform a reversal corrective wave a in yellow or retracement to complete wave iv in white. A breakout to the lower yellow and red trendline would bolster towards this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any bullish continuation trend and any breakout towards the white/yellow critical line. Good luck.
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  • #15,004
  • Jun 15, 2009 5:21am Jun 15, 2009 5:21am
GBP/JPY's retreat from 162.56 continues today and with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment, with risk of some more decline. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 159.74 minor support will argue that a short term top is likely formed and should turn focus to 154.85 support for confirmation. However, before that, another rise could still be seen. Above 162.56 will target channel resistance at 166.33. However, upside momentum will likely continue to diminish.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of topping in GBP/JPY yet and the rise from 118.81 might extend further. But after all, there is no change in the view that such rise is merely a correction in the larger down trend and hence we'll continue to look for reversal signal as GBP/JPY is now staying in 155.88/167.34 resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 215.87 to 118.81). On the downside, break of the trend line support will be an indication that whole rise form 118.81 has completed and focus will then turn to 143.00 support for confirmation.
  • #15,005
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:56pm Jun 15, 2009 11:56pm
Quoting johnscorpion
GBP/JPY's retreat from 162.56 continues today and with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment, with risk of some more decline. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 159.74 minor support will argue that a short term top is likely formed and should turn focus to 154.85 support for confirmation. However, before that, another rise could still be seen. Above 162.56 will target channel resistance at 166.33. However, upside momentum will likely continue to diminish....
Tq for the info. Anyway I hope u could include ur chart analysis for better understandng. I'm very much appreciate it if u could do that. Thanks.

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At this moment, price already break the lower red trendline. Preferably, I believed market in progress to perform a corrective wave a either in yellow or gray. But, please be careful for any bullish retracement trend to perform a corrective wave b before expecting for another bearish continuation trend to complete corrective wave c. Otherwise, please be careful for any possibility towards the alt count in white where as market might perform a double top wave v in 5. Good luck.
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  • #15,006
  • Jun 16, 2009 10:10pm Jun 16, 2009 10:10pm
Preferably, I'm looking forward to see a further bearish continuation trend scenario. A further breakout towards the bearish continuation critical line 1 would bolster this scenario. But, market may perform for another bullish retracement trend either to complete the unfinish wave b in gray or subwave ii in yellow before expecting for another bearish continuation trend. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the yellow critical line. Favourably, advisable to look for any bearish continuation trend entry signal from BSTS later. Good luck.
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  • #15,007
  • Jun 17, 2009 9:07am Jun 17, 2009 9:07am
Preferably, I'm looking forward for a further bearish continuation trend to perform a subwave iii either in yellow or gray. Otherwise, please be careful for any possibility toward any bullish continuation trend refering to the alt count in magenta. Good luck.
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  • #15,008
  • Jun 17, 2009 8:21pm Jun 17, 2009 8:21pm
Thank you for all your posts, please keep posting, I believe in you.

Best regards
  • #15,009
  • Jun 17, 2009 10:55pm Jun 17, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting bpenbert
Thank you for all your posts, please keep posting, I believe in you.

Best regards
Tq but pls be careful since in EW there is ALWAYS have another possibilities (alt counts). Happy trading.

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At this moment, I'm looking forward for any possibility towards an extension of subwave 3 (cyan) in iii (yellow). But please be careful for any double bottom scenario which is we may see another bullish retracement rally either to perform a corrective wave b in gray or wave 5 in white. Otherwise, all those bearish scenario will be invalid if there is a further true breakout toward the bullish continuation critical line 2 that would bolster the alt count in magenta scenario. Good luck.
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  • #15,010
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:50pm Jun 18, 2009 11:50pm
Due to the market failed to break the bearish continuation critical line 1, therefore I have to do a recount towards the alt count in yellow. Favourably, I'm looking forward for another bearish continuation trend scenario in 5 waves bearish structure refering to the alt count in yellow. But, please be careful for any breakout toward the major green upper trendline which would bolster towards either the alt count in gray or white scenario (or even magenta). From my point of view, advisable to look for any bearish entry signal from BSTS or any system that you are using later. Good luck and happy weekends.
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  • #15,011
  • Jun 21, 2009 11:25pm Jun 21, 2009 11:25pm
At this moment, I'm looking forward market to perform a major bearish continuation trend refering toward the alt count in yellow. A valid "Head and Shoulder reversal pattern and a breakout towards the white critical line would bolster toward this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any bullish continuation trend and a breakout to the upper green trendline that would favour to the alt counts either in white or magenta. Good luck.
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  • #15,012
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:26am Jun 22, 2009 2:26am
Quoting Jebatfx
At this moment, I'm looking forward market to perform a major bearish continuation trend refering toward the alt count in yellow. A valid "Head and Shoulder reversal pattern and a breakout towards the white critical line would bolster toward this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any bullish continuation trend and a breakout to the upper green trendline that would favour to the alt counts either in white or magenta. Good luck.
Yes I hear you Jebatfx. Looking for the head and shoulders on the hourly to break and re-test 157.50 then target 155.

And the larger head and shoulders on the H4/D1 which breaks at 155 targeting 148, or at least 150, anyway.

This may well coincide with a correction in stock markets.

Thanks for your posts, keep posting.
Gone to a better place
  • #15,013
  • Jun 22, 2009 10:33pm Jun 22, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting smikester
Yes I hear you Jebatfx. Looking for the head and shoulders on the hourly to break and re-test 157.50 then target 155.

And the larger head and shoulders on the H4/D1 which breaks at 155 targeting 148, or at least 150, anyway.

This may well coincide with a correction in stock markets.

Thanks for your posts, keep posting.
Now, looking to see either the neckline will be broken or bounce to perform subwave ii (yellow). So need to wait and see either there will be an extension of subwave i or not. Good luck to u.

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Preferably, I believed, market in progress just to perform a subwave i before expecting for a bullish retracement trend to complete subwave ii in yellow. Please be aware that there is a possibility that market may perform an extension of subwave i if there is a true breakout towards the white critcal line. Otherwise if market fail to break it and perform a bounce scenario, then perhaps subwave i (yellow) is already completed. My advise is please look for any bearish continuation entry signal later either from BSTS or any trading system that u have. Otherwise, please be careful for any bullish retrcement or bullish continuation trend and any breakout towards the upper green trendline. Good luck.
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  • #15,014
  • Edited 2:24am Jun 23, 2009 1:40am | Edited 2:24am
Well the hourly head and shoulders played out in text book fashion. I can't believe how perfectly. I was able to enter a small position on the re-test of 157.50. Four pips drawdown.

Now I have small positions set from 155 down. Currently 155 is being tested. Looking at the way the Asian stock markets have been behaving this larger head and shoulders could play out.
Gone to a better place
  • #15,015
  • Jun 23, 2009 11:21pm Jun 23, 2009 11:21pm
At this moment, I believed market either in progress to complete subwave ii in yellow or the unfinish corrective wave b in white before expecting for any possible major bearish continuation trend to complete major wave 5. A true breakout towards the neckline would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the upper green trendline or the latest white critical line. Good luck.
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  • #15,016
  • Jun 24, 2009 11:00pm Jun 24, 2009 11:00pm
At this moment, I'm looking forward for any possibility towards the bearish continuation trend either refering to the alt count in yellow (truncated subwave 5 in ii) or white (wave b). Therefore, advisable to look for any bearish continuation entry signal later either from BSTS or your own trading system. A breakout towards the neckline would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any bullish continuation trend and any breakout to the yellow or white critical line. Good luck.
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  • #15,017
  • Jun 25, 2009 11:06pm Jun 25, 2009 11:06pm
At this moment, I'm looking forward for any opportunity towards the bearish continuation trend refering to the alt count in yellow to perform subwave iii. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the upper green trendline (white or magenta). Good luck and happy weekends.
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  • #15,018
  • Jun 28, 2009 11:27pm Jun 28, 2009 11:27pm
At this moment, I'm still waiting for any strong breakout to determine which alt counts that is more favourable. Preferably, I'm still looking for any possibility towards any major bearish continuation trend either in yellow or white. Unless there is any true breakout towards the white critical line, my advise is to look for any good bearish entry signal before making any entry later. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout toward the yellow critical line. Good luck.
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  • #15,019
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:44pm Jun 29, 2009 10:44pm
Please be noted that market already break the upper green trendline and the previous yellow critical line. Therefore, I have to do a re-count towards the alt count in yellow. Due to that, preferably I believed market in progress to perform corrective wave b either in yellow or white before expecting for a bearish reversal trend. As long the white critical line is remain intact, I would favour to look for any possible bearish entry signal later. Otherwise, if the white critical line is taken, then I believed market still in progress to complete the major wave 4 (magenta) before expecting for any major bearish continuation trend to complete major wave 5. Good luck.
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  • #15,020
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:56pm Jun 30, 2009 11:56pm
At this moment, I'm looking forward market to perform a bearish reversal trend refering to the alt count in yellow. But, please be careful since we may see a double top scenario refering to the alt count in white. And please be noted that all those bearish scenario would be invalid if there is any true breakout towards the white critical line later. Advisable to look for any good bearish entry signal from BSTS later. Good luck.
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