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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #2,421
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:50pm Jun 18, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting 4cfx
This is why I like elliot wave - so many possibilities but also so many eliminations. We will know soon enough which way it will be. I don't think that triangle is going to hold for much longer. Also, according to a delta analysis done by someone else, we should see either an intermediate term top or a bottom by 22 June (give or take 3/4 days). It's a waiting game
Hi 4cfx,

Delta analysis??? I'm aware of what it is in general, but beyond that I don't know how good it actually is, since I have no personal experience with it.

I know that there is software out there that calculates the various delta points too. That said, it would be interesting to see a chart with a delta "prediction" as to where the market is about to go (direction and rough price range). If I could see something like that now, and it proves to be correct, I might take a closer look at it. Until then, I'll stick with what I know.

Do you have any more info. on your contact's delta analysis?
  • #2,422
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:04pm Jun 18, 2009 5:04pm
Quoting 200ema
Hi 4cfx,

Delta analysis??? I'm aware of what it is in general, but beyond that I don't know how good it actually is, since I have no personal experience with it.

I know that there is software out there that calculates the various delta points too. That said, it would be interesting to see a chart with a delta "prediction" as to where the market is about to go (direction and rough price range). If I could see something like that now, and it proves to be correct, I might take a closer look at it. Until then, I'll stick with what I...
Hi 200ema

This is the guy's blog. His analysis is pretty cool and I use it to corroborate. I don't think you can trade on its own.

http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/

Take a look and see what you think.
  • #2,423
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:32pm Jun 18, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting 4cfx
Hi 200ema

This is the guy's blog. His analysis is pretty cool and I use it to corroborate. I don't think you can trade on its own.

http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/

Take a look and see what you think.
Thanks 4cfx. I'll check it out.
  • #2,424
  • Edited 11:58pm Jun 18, 2009 11:46pm | Edited 11:58pm
Well, I'm starting to look to short the GBP. We'll see if that happens, or if Frankfurt/London change my mind.

That said, the 1H chart is pretty unclear as to market direction right now, so I'll be watching that one closely, and keep and current shorts to scalping size.
  • #2,425
  • Jun 19, 2009 12:19am Jun 19, 2009 12:19am
Is anyone here familiar with "The Neely Method" for counting EWs?

If so, what is your view point of his methods?

Thanks,
  • #2,426
  • Jun 19, 2009 1:34am Jun 19, 2009 1:34am
Price action looks to be winding up to go bullish to test the 1.6500 level.

London open should be interesting....
  • #2,427
  • Jun 19, 2009 1:52am Jun 19, 2009 1:52am
Quoting 200ema
Price action looks to be winding up to go bullish to test the 1.6500 level.

London open should be interesting....
Morning 200ema. How do you see the cable count at the moment? I have the lastest rise to 6398 as end of wave e of the triangle. Now we seem to be in yet another triangle. Might it be a nine wave triangle?

Need some help to decipher this one.
  • #2,428
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:13am Jun 19, 2009 2:13am
Quoting 4cfx
Morning 200ema. How do you see the cable count at the moment? I have the lastest rise to 6398 as end of wave e of the triangle. Now we seem to be in yet another triangle. Might it be a nine wave triangle?

Need some help to decipher this one.
The move up from 1.6303 to 1.6376 "looks" like a wave 1 (5 min chart count goes 1, 2, i, ii, iii, iv, v/3, 4, 5) with the retracement back to 1.6328 looking like a wave 2 from where I'm sitting right now.... I'll be long if price action moves into a new high above 1.6376.

IF that is correct, we can look at having 5 waves up for a wave 3...beyond that I've got a few counts...but the one I'm starting to think is most likely to be correct is my count off of the 4H chart which makes the high of 1.6661 the top of wave III of Y, then A of IV at 1.5802, (a) of B at 1.6620, (b) of B at 1.6188, which would then leave a 5 wave up for (c) of B of IV.

I'd post a chart, but I honestly don't know how.
  • #2,429
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:34am Jun 19, 2009 2:34am
You just gotta love dynamic price action.

It looks like price has met resistence in the 1.6400 range of the channel its been in this last 24 hours, and I don't know if it will push through or not...but the momentum doesn't appear to be there to go much higher....which then makes one look at the short side.

All the fun
  • #2,430
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:57am Jun 19, 2009 2:57am
Quoting 200ema
........

I'd post a chart, but I honestly don't know how.

Good instructions here.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3205
  • #2,431
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:59am Jun 19, 2009 2:59am
Hi 4cfx,

I think that 5 waves up that I was able to count on the 5 min. chart may have been an "a" wave, because it can't be a 1 the way price has moved...but things could still make sense if it IS and a, b, c zig-zag, and that would still put the price target in the 1.6400 range....and from there short....

We'll have to see if THAT pans out now.... ( I just love all these little faces! )
  • #2,432
  • Jun 19, 2009 3:23am Jun 19, 2009 3:23am
Quoting 200ema
Hi 4cfx,

I think that 5 waves up that I was able to count on the 5 min. chart may have been an "a" wave, because it can't be a 1 the way price has moved...but things could still make sense if it IS and a, b, c zig-zag, and that would still put the price target in the 1.6400 range....and from there short....

We'll have to see if THAT pans out now.... ( I just love all these little faces! )
That agrees with what I'm seeing on my 4h. Looking at it, wave e of the triangle doesn't look complete. So there's room to 64 which is where I'll be looking to short too.

I find it really hard to count on the smaller tf. 30m is the smallest that my pea brain can deal with. When it gets to 5m or 1m, I just find the waves too confusing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable 4H 19062009.jpg Size: 169 KB
  • #2,433
  • Jun 19, 2009 5:14am Jun 19, 2009 5:14am
....Almost finished topping out.
  • #2,434
  • Jun 19, 2009 5:27am Jun 19, 2009 5:27am
Quoting 200ema
....Almost finished topping out.
I've taken a short at 6425. Not sure if it's a bit too early.
  • #2,435
  • Jun 19, 2009 5:28am Jun 19, 2009 5:28am
CAD JPY
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD JPY D 19-6-2009.gif Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD JPY 1H 19-6-2009.gif Size: 100 KB
  • #2,436
  • Edited 5:59am Jun 19, 2009 5:49am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting 4cfx
I've taken a short at 6425. Not sure if it's a bit too early.
I expect that it will be dropping down below 1.6400 fairly soon.

I'm still looking for one more new high for this move, but I might not see it....
  • #2,437
  • Jun 19, 2009 7:06am Jun 19, 2009 7:06am
I expect long to 1.6480-1.6500 then consolidate & then drop heavy.
  • #2,438
  • Jun 19, 2009 9:16am Jun 19, 2009 9:16am
I think we've now had our wave e top. South we now go. If this thing doesn't break the lower tl of 6210, then my count will be invalidated. Does anyone agree?
  • #2,439
  • Jun 19, 2009 9:30am Jun 19, 2009 9:30am
first let's have a cup of tea with the market and then we'll see
  • #2,440
  • Jun 19, 2009 9:39am Jun 19, 2009 9:39am
Quoting Phi
first let's have a cup of tea with the market and then we'll see
I just want to see if the wavecount play out . Plus I'm short. Are you still seeing a retest of 65?
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