GBPJPY River Theory | Forex Factory

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GBPJPY River Theory

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 24, 2007 6:30pm Apr 24, 2007 6:30pm
Our long strategy worked very well and should have put you in the market near the low in front of River.
The market closed above the River level at 235.99, so short trades continue to be aggressive.

Long Strategy
If you are long, stay long. Risk would be an hourly close below 236.53 which should lock in some profit. Target is 238.38 where traders should take partial profits, then 238.87 where all longs should exit.

New Traders can look to set longs on a move down through 236.53. Risk would be an hourly close below River at 235.99. If this occurs, traders should exit. You can always re-enter if we move back above. Targets are same as existing longs.

Short Strategy (Higher Risk)

Traders can enter new shorts if we get a strong move down through River at 235.99. If this occurs look to enter on a push back to this level. Risk would be an hourly close back above 236.53. Target is 234.28 where traders should exit.
http://www.theviewdownriver.com/stor...y4-25-2007.PNG
  • #2
  • Apr 24, 2007 8:37pm Apr 24, 2007 8:37pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Our long strategy worked very well and should have put you in the market near the low in front of River.
The market closed above the River level at 235.99, so short trades continue to be aggressive.

Long Strategy
If you are long, stay long. Risk would be an hourly close below 236.53 which should lock in some profit. Target is 238.38 where traders should take partial profits, then 238.87 where all longs should exit.

New Traders can look to set longs on a move down through 236.53. Risk would be an hourly close below River at 235.99. If this occurs, traders should exit. You can always re-enter if we move back above. Targets are same as existing longs.

Short Strategy (Higher Risk)

Traders can enter new shorts if we get a strong move down through River at 235.99. If this occurs look to enter on a push back to this level. Risk would be an hourly close back above 236.53. Target is 234.28 where traders should exit.
http://www.theviewdownriver.com/stor...y4-25-2007.PNG
I have been following your analysis closely.it has taken me a couple of weeks of observation to be come familiar with the system.The accuracy of your levels is truly amazing.I plan on trading with you alot ,with all the currencies you analyze.
  • #3
  • Apr 26, 2007 6:01pm Apr 26, 2007 6:01pm
The market traded up today and longs should have taken partial profit as we were just a few ticks away from our first target.
The market closed above the River level at 236.23, so short trades continue to be aggressive.

Long Strategy
If you are long from the 236 area, stay long. Risk would be a failure to close above 238.87 Final target above this level is 241.21 where all longs should exit.

New Traders can look to set longs on a move down through 236.53. Risk would be an hourly close below River at 236.23. If this occurs, traders should exit. You can always re-enter if we move back above. Targets are 238.74, then 241.21 where all longs should exit.

Short Strategy (Higher Risk)

Traders can enter new shorts if we get a strong move down through River at 236.23. If this occurs look to enter on a push back to this level. Risk would be an hourly close back above 236.53. Target is 234.63 where shorts should cover.

http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/gbpjpy4-27-2007.PNG
  • #4
  • Apr 29, 2007 3:46pm Apr 29, 2007 3:46pm
The market closed above the River level at 236.51, so short trades continue to be aggressive and we continue to hold longs.

Long Strategy
If you are long from the 236 area, stay long. Risk would be a failure to close above 238.87 which we are testing now. If we do not overcome this level exit. Final target above this level is 241.21 where all longs should exit.

Traders can look to set longs on a move down to 236.53. Risk would be an hourly close below River at 236.23. If this occurs, traders should exit. You can always re-enter if we move back above. Targets are 238.87/239.16, then 241.21 where all longs should exit.

Short Strategy (Higher Risk)

Traders can enter new shorts if we do not close above the 238.87 area. Look to enter on an hourly close below this level. Risk is an hourly close above 239.16. Target is 236.53. Cover completely here.

http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/gbpjpy4-30-2007.PNG
  • #5
  • May 1, 2007 8:19pm May 1, 2007 8:19pm
Please note that I have made adjustments to both the static levels (black) and the dynamic River levels (blue) based on the price action over the last 5 weeks. The static levels will be fixed for approximately 4-5 weeks depending on volatility.

The model has changed and we are trading at the River level of 239.27 so my bias has moved to Neutral until this level is resolved. Traders may wish to stand aside until the next directional move becomes clearer. If you trade, expect volatility on the hourly closes.

Long Strategy (Neutral)
If you are holding longs, stay long. Risk is an hourly close below 239.27. Target is 241.84. Exit completely here.
Traders can look to set new longs on an hourly close above 239.18. Target is 241.84. Exit completely here.
Short Strategy (Neutral)

Traders can enter new shorts on an hourly close below 238.80. Risk is an hourly close above River at 239.27.Target is 236.53. Cover completely here.

http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/gbpjpy5-2-2007.PNG
  • #6
  • Oct 9, 2007 7:03am Oct 9, 2007 7:03am
10/9 North American Session 8:00 AM

Here's an idea for a trade.

Look to set longs on a push down into 237.44

Target 238.33

http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/g...010-9-2007.PNG
  • #7
  • Oct 9, 2007 9:03am Oct 9, 2007 9:03am
Good morning.

So, how is the river looking right now? It went well below your entry recommendation, but starting to climb back up? Thanks.
  • #8
  • Oct 9, 2007 9:11am Oct 9, 2007 9:11am
Here's the update for 10:00 AM EST.

http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/g...y10-9-1000.PNG
  • #9
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:02pm Oct 9, 2007 3:02pm
DRT, missed morning post, I'll keep an eye open for future post if you have time. thanks again lilpip
  • #10
  • Oct 9, 2007 6:32pm Oct 9, 2007 6:32pm
Looks like this one worked out okay. Stay long above the 238.48 area and target 239.22.



http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/g...010-9-1900.PNG
  • #11
  • Oct 9, 2007 9:08pm Oct 9, 2007 9:08pm
price action came right to ya, great job. It sure is nice seeing your work.I didn't catch your post till after the fact. Trying to short gby/jpy as close to 239.22 as possible. THANKS
  • #12
  • Oct 10, 2007 12:52am Oct 10, 2007 12:52am
Nice to see you posting again, I thought you had been washed out to sea !!

I value your postings.

Cheers
  • #13
  • Oct 10, 2007 4:11am Oct 10, 2007 4:11am
Since were trading on a shorter time frame so I decided to exit at 293.72 till I have a clearer picture where this might be heading.
  • #14
  • Oct 10, 2007 4:28am Oct 10, 2007 4:28am
This trade has met its objective. It is time to start looking for shorts. Let's let value build a bit first.

http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/g...10-10-0500.PNG
  • #15
  • Last Post: Oct 10, 2007 6:00am Oct 10, 2007 6:00am
I am going to continue to post the GBPJPY charts in this thread....
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31651&page=3
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