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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,801
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:05pm Jun 18, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting 1234
I can only speak for my self, but I do not take any notice of chart patterns. My main concern is money management and trading with the trend. As I trade full time, I am more concerned with the opening times of Europe, London and New York as I often notice that the trend may change as say for example the Asian Session when Europe starts. For me it means just being careful at these times and I try not to have the whole army out. Fti pointed out today an expanding wedge and to be careful, I did not even notice it until he talked about it, but I have...

... I can not so nicely explained

  • #7,802
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:33pm Jun 18, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting 1234
I can only speak for my self, but I do not take any notice of chart patterns. My main concern is money management and trading with the trend.
1234 nicely put this is really good .....
  • #7,803
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:22pm Jun 18, 2009 1:22pm
"Elephant is moved"
  • #7,804
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:24pm Jun 18, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Do others on here think it's possible to read PA without thinking about particular chart formations? The reason I ask is that previously I used to be put off trades because of certain patterns that looked like they were forming. Since I stopped trading live and went back to hopefully my last demo account, I don't so much look at formations as try and follow the general flow. I've done much better than before and made steady profits for two months.

Maybe it is that chart patterns are not that helpful until you have more experience with them - i.e....
Hi UkManThailan,

I'm using chart pattern very rarely I thought. But writing this posting showed me, that that statement is far from being true. Will try to explain.

Very important are the reversal patterns, because we always try to trade with the trend an we also need good opportunities for our rescues.

Of course when reading PA you can not avoid using and recognizing patterns, when you try to derive any trading decisions. Congestions, ranges, double tops or bottoms, etc we are scanning the charts for such patterns all the time.
I believe that there many many patterns and formations, that are recognized by our sub-conscious brain and give us the feeling for the dance ...

Hmmmh - will say we are using patterns heavily, but not in the way that we are waiting for special patterns to do predefined actions. We are using pattern and formation recognition to have a feeling for the market and it's moves ...

Ok - I'll stop here, because I'm not able to get my thoughts expressed in the english language. Sorry :-)
  • #7,805
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:44pm Jun 18, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi UkManThailan,

I'm using chart pattern very rarely I thought. But writing this posting showed me, that that statement is far from being true. Will try to explain.

Very important are the reversal patterns, because we always try to trade with the trend an we also need good opportunities for our rescues.

Of course when reading PA you can not avoid using and recognizing patterns, when you try to derive any trading decisions. Congestions, ranges, double tops or bottoms, etc we are scanning the charts for such patterns all the time.
I believe that...
Yes MaMood
... we all do trade psychology of other traders.

I have a unique system:

pain ... pain ... joy and joy not take me
(joke)

  • #7,806
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:54pm Jun 18, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi UkManThailan,

I'm using chart pattern very rarely I thought. But writing this posting showed me, that that statement is far from being true. Will try to explain.

Very important are the reversal patterns, because we always try to trade with the trend an we also need good opportunities for our rescues.

Of course when reading PA you can not avoid using and recognizing patterns, when you try to derive any trading decisions. Congestions, ranges, double tops or bottoms, etc we are scanning the charts for such patterns all the time.
I believe that...
Hi, MaMood:

Agree. And I observe the fightings between the bulls and bears, get a conclusion which side will win, then I will jump in at the time of change. 5m and 1m chart will tell you a lot of strories, and be patient for the big fall/rise unless story changed. Square all the time is very bad. No rescues, add to winners most of time.

How is your day today? I shorted G/U again early European session, rided till end, some position got almost 200 pips, some 20 as I closed as the price went down. Being a flee like you, longed again and shorted again, sqared just now. I also shorted E/U about 2 hour ago, 60+ pips. Made more than 10% today.

See you tomorrow.
  • #7,807
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:59pm Jun 18, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting Green_David
Hi, MaMood:

Agree. And I observe the fightings between the bulls and bears, get a conclusion which side will win, then I will jump in at the time of change. 5m and 1m chart will tell you a lot of strories, and be patient for the big fall/rise unless story changed. Square all the time is very bad. No rescues, add to winners most of time.

How is your day today? I shorted G/U again early European session, rided till end, some position got almost 200 pips, some 20 as I closed as the price went down. Being a flee like you, longed again and shorted...
Hi David
nice
  • #7,808
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:47pm Jun 18, 2009 3:47pm
hello all,

great to see this thread alive and well now fti is back!

iam still studying and struggeling with my lack of time to trade.... often i try to rescue in a range and have to close my position when i have to go to work.

many times is see/feel the PA but when i have litle time, hope takes me and i try to rescue a scout with no opportunity.

when i have no scout in i see things more clearly. and what was a rescue is an attack now....
i attack for 10-20 pips and close when it does not feel right (i watch 15, 5 and 1m.tf) this works good for about 2 weeks now(demo)

i guess this is scalping in the path of the higher TFtrend. do you veterans think this is stuppid or it is a way to go for people with litlle time to trade??

kind greets. jacco
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #7,809
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:58pm Jun 18, 2009 4:58pm
Thanks for the answers guys.

(I find it hard to articulate what I am thinking too MaMood, and English is my native language)

My problem now, is that I have been making profitable trades for a couple of months and I am not sure if I have the hang of it or if it is just luck. I haven't had to cut my losses on a single trade in that period - I have conducted several rescues - one that got rather serious and I should have really walked away from, in retrospect.

I can't really believe that I have improved so much in a few months though. The first 8 or 9 demo accounts I trashed in a matter of days, as I mentioned quite a while ago. So I am very happy that I no longer trade like that but not happy that I fully understand this method. In some ways it seems too simple. By that I don't mean it's easy, as it requires great attention. On a couple of occasions I noticed myself getting a little too relaxed and opening a trade just before important news or missing an entry because I wasn't concentrating.

So, I am of two minds now. Part of me is saying don't be an arrogant fool, there is no way you could have picked it up yet. And part of me is saying don't try to overcomplicate it, if it works. I'm very wary of arrogance as it used to be a big fault of mine. That's what's making me question myself.

Another thing that occurs to me is that maybe the markets have been a lot easier the past two or three months, and were they to go back to how they were six months ago I might be in a whole heap of trouble again.

Sorry to ramble on. Maybe I have to find what I am looking for inside of myself, instead of seeking help / reassurance from others.
  • #7,810
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:03pm Jun 18, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks for the answers guys.

(I find it hard to articulate what I am thinking too MaMood, and English is my native language)

My problem now, is that I have been making profitable trades for a couple of months and I am not sure if I have the hang of it or if it is just luck. I haven't had to cut my losses on a single trade in that period - I have conducted several rescues - one that got rather serious and I should have really walked away from, in retrospect.

I can't really believe that I have improved so much in a few months though. The first...

Hi ukmanthailan

Increasing success = the greater the Skorpion (when I think that is guarded, he nip mine back - my experience).

  • #7,811
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:06pm Jun 18, 2009 6:06pm
Yes, complacency is one thing to look out for, for sure.
  • #7,812
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:15pm Jun 18, 2009 8:15pm
Quoting MaMood
Thanx Auxesis!

Very touching video.
Have tears in my eyes...
Did know Laminin before, but not in that context.
Great.
Thank you very much.
Mamood & Fti,

Glad you enjoyed it, I wish I could post a link for the complete message, as the Laminin was just the ending part, the first part relates the universe in comparison to golf balls. If the earth were the size of a golfball then our sun would be.... and if our sun was the size of a golf ball, ect ect.

Makes you feel very small.

regards,
  • #7,813
  • Edited 8:50pm Jun 18, 2009 8:38pm | Edited 8:50pm
Patterns! Patterns?…… Oh my!

There’s the basic 8wave Elliott pattern, 5 up, 3 down. You’ve got Double tops Adam & Eves or vice versa or twins , Triples, Head & Shoulders, 1,2,3’s, 2b’s, 3 drives/dives, scallops, cup and saucers, wedges, flags, pendants, triangles, big bad Wolfes, the harmonics… gartleys, butterflies, and bats and a gazillion others and enough variations to make your head swim.

Any pattern by itself can complete, break or fail at any time so trading just a pattern is a statistical wager.

So it's best to view the pattern or recognition of such as just one small part of the mental process to help you - not the definitive answer to your trade.

A heads up if you will.

Enough of my ranting…. Good trades everyone.

Fti cautioned everyone about the expanding wedge, do you know why?
  • #7,814
  • Edited 9:22pm Jun 18, 2009 9:10pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks for the answers guys.

(I find it hard to articulate what I am thinking too MaMood, and English is my native language)

My problem now, is that I have been making profitable trades for a couple of months and I am not sure if I have the hang of it or if it is just luck. I haven't had to cut my losses on a single trade in that period - I have conducted several rescues - one that got rather serious and I should have really walked away from, in retrospect.

I can't really believe that I have improved so much in a few months though. The first...
ukmanthailan,

Just my own thoughts here,

You asked about patterns, if you can see them without imposing a directional bias that influences or clouds your view then, Ok. If you find yourself trading better without, then without, but for me, I'd ask myself why to address any mindset problem that exists.

Trading is by far the hardest thing i've ever done, at any given time there are a 1000 curve balls the market can throw you, not to mention the 10,000 mental blunders, lack of discipline or scorpion stings that i can self-inflict but with experience you learn from them... don't underestimate the computer that sits between your ears, train it.

Sooner or later you have to throw money into the equation, as controlling the emotions are a vital part of the equation....... start small.

Yes the biggest lessons and questions are about self. Be true to yourself when answering, it will save you alot of money.

regards,
  • #7,815
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:20pm Jun 18, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting auxesis
Patterns! Patterns?…… Oh my!

Fti cautioned everyone about the expanding wedge, do you know why?
Because the risk is increasing and our size should decreasing, and we should stay alert on whatever is going to happen?
  • #7,816
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:27pm Jun 18, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting auxesis
Fti cautioned everyone about the expanding wedge, do you know why?
No, not really. Without looking it up, if I try to think it out logically, I guess I would say that although the price was still going up, the swings were getting wilder (more volatile), possibly indicating bears and bulls battling it out...... That's probably complete rubbish, but my best guess.
  • #7,817
  • Jun 19, 2009 12:08am Jun 19, 2009 12:08am
Good morning Friends!

Hope you ahve had a good rest or some successful trades in Asian session.

CU,
MaMood
  • #7,818
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:09am Jun 19, 2009 2:09am
Hello all,
No news today, low volatility, me feel dozy, but still hope something to move, here's some info:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today we have Quad or Quadruple Witching on the calendar. Quadruple witching only occurs four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.
It is a day when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire. This usually leads to some erratic price action in the equity markets. Since currencies like to take its cue from equities, we could see some uneven price action in the forex market.
  • #7,819
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:12am Jun 19, 2009 2:12am
oh i love these witching days
closed short when gbp started moving up
morning all , good trade for today n stay nimble
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,820
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:15am Jun 19, 2009 2:15am
Quoting imjscn
Hello all,
No news today, low volatility, me feel dozy, but still hope something to move, here's some info:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today we have Quad or Quadruple Witching on...
I had my biggest profit during Triple Witching a few months ago if i recall correct. Lets see what market offers today. Thanks for the memo.
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