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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,861
  • Apr 24, 2007 12:25pm Apr 24, 2007 12:25pm
Seriously, there are trendlines that look as if they are getting ready to be broken to the downside. Now anything can happen, just take a look. The next candle that closes on the hourly may hold the key here.

Tra-x any insight?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,862
  • Apr 24, 2007 12:29pm Apr 24, 2007 12:29pm
Quoting Sami7
Seriously, there are trendlines that look as if they are getting ready to be broken to the downside. Now anything can happen, just take a look. The next candle that closes on the hourly may hold the key here.
I agree, it has already tried to break the trendline once but didn't succeed so hopefully it'll break it n go through it this time..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #3,863
  • Apr 24, 2007 12:37pm Apr 24, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting karmostaji
I agree, it has already tried to break the trendline once but didn't succeed so hopefully it'll break it n go through it this time..
Can you post a chart with the line?

Sami7 < request to you as well.

PS: Guys that chart was a twisted fun don't try to find anything in there.
  • #3,864
  • Apr 24, 2007 12:38pm Apr 24, 2007 12:38pm
Quoting Sami7
Seriously, there are trendlines that look as if they are getting ready to be broken to the downside. Now anything can happen, just take a look. The next candle that closes on the hourly may hold the key here.

Tra-x any insight?
Looking at super choppy moves right now, imho the pattern is simple: uncertain.
But now try to open your chart and look from recent 239+ high till now. Compare the pattern with below chart between the blue rectangles. That's the only thing I see now lol.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #3,865
  • Apr 24, 2007 12:51pm Apr 24, 2007 12:51pm
Correlation between the stock market and the carry trades are getting blurred for quite sometime.

It was very easy to trade GJ just after the Chinese stocks shakeout. Once the panic was over, investors got back to risk and GJ took advantage of that and the end of Yen repatriation for the end of fiscal year.

This carry trades redemption was so strong that even with USD ultra-bearish, USDJPY managed to go up.

Now the story has changed. The main Yen driver now it the concern that Japan is on its way to strengthen its currency. This week's economic data are very important, since expected Core CPI (-0.1%) And CPI (0%) already means that Japan may be heading back to inflation. Imagine it coming up ABOVE forecast.

I guess the market is not willing to trade UJ above 119 and below 118. Actually keeping it as it is to wait for the data to drive. This bag of data will tell what's the price of Yen across the board for a good while.

Until the news, I'm out of Yen...
  • #3,866
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:01pm Apr 24, 2007 1:01pm
For those of you anxious to trade, the EURJPY was actually a good buy. Apparently the Euro did so well against the dollar that it shrugged off the small gain in Yen. I am 10 pips up looking to abandon ship soon. Agree strongly with those staying out of market. GJ and UJ need a therapist.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #3,867
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:08pm Apr 24, 2007 1:08pm
I've tried to upload my chart - just got too much up. Like I said, we could get a spike up. However, strangely we keep testing this trendline.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,868
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:20pm Apr 24, 2007 1:20pm
Maybe this is what sami7 means. Thanks for bringing this up.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #3,869
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:24pm Apr 24, 2007 1:24pm
Quoting Traex
Maybe this is what sami7 means. Thanks for bringing this up.
Yes, thanks Tra-x - I'm working on upgrading my computer.

looking for one more hourly candle closing, then unless something changes most probably short.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,870
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:34pm Apr 24, 2007 1:34pm
Maybe this scenario will tell us what's going to happen?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: triangle.gif Size: 18 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #3,871
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:44pm Apr 24, 2007 1:44pm
By the way, those lines look amazing on the 15min chart just now...
Gone to a better place
  • #3,872
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:53pm Apr 24, 2007 1:53pm
Quoting smikester
By the way, those lines look amazing on the 15min chart just now...
How so?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,873
  • Apr 24, 2007 2:04pm Apr 24, 2007 2:04pm
Well, only in my opinion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: triangle.jpg Size: 68 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #3,874
  • Apr 24, 2007 2:14pm Apr 24, 2007 2:14pm
Cesarnc, This is for the morning drop for UJ. Sorry for late responce. Got caught up in meetings.



Consumer confidence tumbles to 9-month low
Index falls to a lower-than-expected 104.0 on rising gasoline prices;
inflation expectations rise to highest since August 2006.
Aslo Current Home sales dropped BIG!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/24/news/economy/consumer_confidence.reut/in
dex.htm?postversion=2007042410


Quoting cesarnc
hey... just dropping by to check things up.... Damn uj took another tumble off the 119.00 level.... Unbelievable... Well, on my side I got a long 118.40 and TPed 118.80 this morning, but I had the feeling this time uj would bust the 119.00 level furiously....

Guess the USD-news was the trigger...

Well, I'll be back to biz in a few hours.
  • #3,875
  • Apr 24, 2007 2:24pm Apr 24, 2007 2:24pm
http://i136.photobucket.com/albums/q.../063GBPJPY.jpg
  • #3,876
  • Apr 24, 2007 2:41pm Apr 24, 2007 2:41pm
Quoting newjersey24
Cesarnc, This is for the morning drop for UJ. Sorry for late responce. Got caught up in meetings.



Consumer confidence tumbles to 9-month low
Index falls to a lower-than-expected 104.0 on rising gasoline prices;
inflation expectations rise to highest since August 2006.
Aslo Current Home sales dropped BIG!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/24/news/economy/consumer_confidence.reut/in
dex.htm?postversion=2007042410
Thanks... UJ just initiating another trip down. With Yen failing in the top side and USD weakness on the spot, those sudden moves are becoming familiar already... Looks like NYC is gonna cut selling $. I'm dying to see Tokyo fix
  • #3,877
  • Apr 24, 2007 3:05pm Apr 24, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting cesarnc
Correlation between the stock market and the carry trades are getting blurred for quite sometime.

It was very easy to trade GJ just after the Chinese stocks shakeout. Once the panic was over, investors got back to risk and GJ took advantage of that and the end of Yen repatriation for the end of fiscal year.

This carry trades redemption was so strong that even with USD ultra-bearish, USDJPY managed to go up.

Now the story has changed. The main Yen driver now it the concern that Japan is on its way to strengthen its currency. This week's economic data are very important, since expected Core CPI (-0.1%) And CPI (0%) already means that Japan may be heading back to inflation. Imagine it coming up ABOVE forecast.

I guess the market is not willing to trade UJ above 119 and below 118. Actually keeping it as it is to wait for the data to drive. This bag of data will tell what's the price of Yen across the board for a good while.

Until the news, I'm out of Yen...
cesar, do you have the schedules of these meeting that will drive market?
  • #3,878
  • Apr 24, 2007 3:06pm Apr 24, 2007 3:06pm
My opinion GDP/JPY is still in consolidation phase for 1 more day and then continue to bullish
  • #3,879
  • Apr 24, 2007 3:25pm Apr 24, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting trader8686
cesar, do you have the schedules of these meeting that will drive market?
In the calendar
  • #3,880
  • Apr 24, 2007 4:14pm Apr 24, 2007 4:14pm
I can see smoke gathering here ... moves are smaller and smaller ... something will happen soon ...
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