Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 385 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,681
  • Edited 10:46pm Jun 17, 2009 10:36pm | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting Green_David
Thank you. So basically you also don't like resuces.

"Why set a figure on how many pips it has to move against you, before you look to rescue? " Because I have to allow some reasonable negative pips. No body's timing is so good that after he openned the position, it is in the money right after. Even so, a retracement could bring the position in red. Yes, I shoud look the chart for opportunity, but beforehand I must have some allowable negative pips either for MM and for resources to rescue.

Btw, if the negative pips are so small, say 20 pips,...
I have to ask myself what type of market I’m in, if it’s trending or range bound, and then if I want to trade it.

If trending then I have to look to the last turn behind me for my anchor, that should hold if the trend is intact, my entries (scout) will be when I feel the market is turning my way , or sometimes on a deep pull back with my anchor to support….. army is sent in when I feel the push coming.

Adding as the move goes against me, (as long as my anchor has held), is attempt to re-average to move scout in better position….. you must understand that this is adding against the trend…. You are assuming the last fractal will hold with out any type of price action to support the trend has resumed.

Once the anchor breaks, you have to accept that the trend has reversed or range has set up. Do you want to stay with your position? Here the turn on wind can be attempted on the next correction…. But it’s easier for me to just cut the position and look to enter on the reverse.

Having a feel for the higher time frame can help keep you out of this scenario more often than not. If you have missed the start of the move, it’s often better to wait for the next leg, than trying to chase price. Patience is key here, looking for the better opportunities.

I disagree with your thoughts on timing…. My best trades seem to come when I’m in tune with the market, my entries are in the money quickly. When I’m waiting on the market to do something, I often find my self sitting there on a bad date… her name is hope.

Regards,

edit: imho, just like the immediate time frame anchor, i have a higher time frame anchor and direction, a rescue would be in that direction, given that the higher anchor held. Basically your caught entering in the middle , bc, of a 3 wave, abcd, correction. You would have to wait for the cd to finish and then resume the trend, but i'd think it would be better to just trade the correction in the now.
  • #7,682
  • Jun 17, 2009 10:47pm Jun 17, 2009 10:47pm
OK. Fine, except that how could you know it is ranging or trending beforehand?

Let's see what chief would say.
  • #7,683
  • Jun 17, 2009 10:53pm Jun 17, 2009 10:53pm
Quoting Green_David
OK. Fine, except that how could you know it is ranging or trending beforehand?

Let's see what chief would say.
If it's in a range to start it's obvious.....

At any time a trend can go range, you never know in advance, you just have to adapt when it happens, when the trend does not make new ground a higher high or lower low, on the next wave you have to ask yourself why?

Off to sleeepy.

good night everyone.

a
  • #7,684
  • Jun 17, 2009 11:02pm Jun 17, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting fti
thats a nice picture sir...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,685
  • Jun 17, 2009 11:24pm Jun 17, 2009 11:24pm
Hi David,

I'm very sorry that I missed to answer your PM.
I remember now ...

I think my time lines are very different to yours, so I guess my answer is not of much help to you. But let's try.

I never would let my positions run 100, 150 or 200 pips aginst me.
I'm really behaving like a little nimble flea. I'm thinking in terms of 10 or 20 pips "reversals" to rescue a bad position. And there are opportunities in nearly every strong move in any direction.
I'm doing very small dancing steps, when I start my trading session every morning. Someone may call it "hectic" or nervous. But with this small steps I get in touch with the market and get my feeling if I'm in a ranging or if I'm in a trending market. After I have been able to synchronize with my Lady (and after I have earned some foreign capital) my steps are getting larger.

But most important for my dancing is, that the pips I'm in profit or in loss are not relevant to me (Ok, after I have lost a predefined amount of money, which is represented in pips, I pull the plug). All my actions and decisions are based on momentum only. Of course there are some situations in my charts, when I get alerted very strong and I follow the PA tick by tick on all 3 kgds to time my rescues or attacks. And there times, when the market gives me the time to be little more relaxed.

And finally I can say from my experience that we are able to time our actions very accurate. Nearly all my mistakes are resulting out of distraction (posting, chatting and YouTubing).
By the way: The leveraged flip is one MO I'm using without hesitation. It's another approach to "rescue" a bad positon. Hmmmh, when I try to remember I would say I'm using the flip at least 2 to 5 times a week ....

But as I have said in the beginning, my characterisation as a little flea makes my experiences very difficult to use for you.

Regards,
MaMood
  • #7,686
  • Jun 17, 2009 11:29pm Jun 17, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi David,

I'm very sorry that I missed to answer your PM.
I remember now ...

I think my time lines are very different to yours, so I guess my answer is not of much help to you. But let's try.

I never would let my positions run 100, 150 or 200 pips aginst me.
I'm really behaving like a little nimble flea. I'm thinking in terms of 10 or 20 pips "reversals" to rescue a bad position. And there are opportunities in nearly every strong move in any direction.
I'm doing very small dancing steps, when I start my trading session every morning. Someone...
Thank you, MaMood. I will take some time to read carefully.
  • #7,687
  • Jun 17, 2009 11:34pm Jun 17, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting Green_David
OK. Fine, except that how could you know it is ranging or trending beforehand?

Let's see what chief would say.
Hi again David,

If this would be my problem, I would reduce my timeframe or better let's say TimeFocus.
Let me bring it to an extreme to make it more clear: If you are reducing your observation focus you can see any move as a micro trend. Yes I'm talkng about 10 pips for example.
That's the reason why I'm trading so hectically at the beginning of every session. The longer I'm in the market every day, my TimeFocus is getting larger and the swings, that I'm dancing, too.

Well - it is really difficult to explain for me.
And please don't forget, that is my way of dancing with my lady.
Most likely a "frightful Mutation" of fti's teachings ... ;-)
  • #7,688
  • Edited Jun 18, 2009 12:18am Jun 17, 2009 11:46pm | Edited Jun 18, 2009 12:18am
Quoting imjscn
Today's Tokyo seems dozy. There are talks about probably big buying EURJPY and AUDJPY will be around Tokyo fix.

Here's an article about mindset worth reading during the slow market:

Positive thinking's negative results

Words of wisdom (not really as wise as fti, but that's the article title)
[font=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][size=-2][color=#999999]Jun...
Hi Imjscn,

thanx for the read.

I'm sure we have to find ourselves and should handle our personality/character with respect. On the first glance our brains (conscious and sub-consciuos) are to clever to get duped by such a simple trick or masquerade.

But it is also true, that we are able to reconfigure some of our neural networks by practise and repetition. Means, if you are repeating such a statement very very often, you'll most probably start to believe it.
That's just the magic of the self-fullfilling prohecies as well ...
  • #7,689
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:27am Jun 18, 2009 12:27am
Hey friends,

the market is so lazy today.
Let us do a combined concerted action to give it a little impulse ...
I'll do the countdown and then we all sell USD, ok?
;-)
  • #7,690
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:29am Jun 18, 2009 12:29am
s x 13935
  • #7,691
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:30am Jun 18, 2009 12:30am
Quoting fti
s x 13935
Good Morning fti!

Ok - little correction: let's buy USD ...
  • #7,692
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:35am Jun 18, 2009 12:35am
Quoting MaMood
Good Morning fti!

Ok - little correction: let's buy USD ...
Good afternoon,
Haven't had my coffee yet.
saw some usd strength, and remembered this level.
seems still in play, so scout is on recee.

Should be interesting day, so be focused.
This level should be somewhere near the end of abc retrace wave, otherwise it is the spring leg of a big upwave, so be nimble as well.


regards
  • #7,693
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:42am Jun 18, 2009 12:42am
Quoting fti
Good afternoon,
[...]
This level should be somewhere near the end of abc retrace wave, otherwise it is the spring leg of a big upwave, so be nimble as well.


regards
Thx for your info!

All my scouts are at home and drinking coffee.
Have not made any decision about my first dancing steps so far.
At the moment I tend to USDJPY long ...
But will wait a little longer ....

will check the behavior at 9600 level first ...
  • #7,694
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:45am Jun 18, 2009 12:45am
Quoting Green_David
1. The scout is actually is against intraday trend. If scout has some -tive pips like -50 pips, then I may see an opportunity to add more. If there is a big rebound, I closed add-ons. The scout will be stop-lossed if price touched lower. In this senerio, normally the loss is very small or a little profits.

The Scout is not necessarily against intrady trend unless you pick top or bottom. Normally we entry after a reversal bar or something like. StopLoss is the real killer for Scout by the way.

2. The dipps turned out...
Instead of waiting 100~200 pips to rescue, I'd agree with Auxesis' --watch the chart. If lost feeling, just simply use fti's old good trick-- 3*AvgDailyProfit. That works like a charm.

The above is just my thoughts if I was in the same situation.
  • #7,695
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:46am Jun 18, 2009 12:46am
Quoting MaMood
Thx for your info!

All my scouts are at home and drinking coffee.
Have not made any decision about my first dancing steps so far.
At the moment I tend to USDJPY long ...
But will wait a little longer ....
wow, COFFEE ! and toast,
now for a little smoke.

later
  • #7,696
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:52am Jun 18, 2009 12:52am
s x 13931

s x 13941
  • #7,697
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:02am Jun 18, 2009 1:02am
Waiting and listening ...

Inserted Video
  • #7,698
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:04am Jun 18, 2009 1:04am
Quoting MaMood
Waiting and listening ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzFBvPpXCo4&fmt=18
Ahh,,, the lovely Laura...nice.
now I don't have to go CD digging.
fliped 13953 looks like you feel is good MaMood.
follow that car.Scout died.
  • #7,699
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:07am Jun 18, 2009 1:07am
preparing attack.
That option writer seems to know his stuff, or he is very BIG.
for now he's the friendly elephant. Hope he doesn't poop on me.
A little behind him.


Hey marion get out !. the flow is coming
  • #7,700
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:16am Jun 18, 2009 1:16am
Quoting fti
preparing attack.
That option writer seems to know his stuff, or he is very BIG.
for now he's the friendly elephant. Hope he doesn't poop on me.
A little behind him.
34 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
dbrown101