Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 384 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,661
  • Jun 17, 2009 12:13pm Jun 17, 2009 12:13pm
Master O is bring out a thick book of regulations.
-He know so much that he want to make the market better.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aUfFlXRCsp9U

How will Forex be impacted?
Watch out!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #7,662
  • Edited 1:21pm Jun 17, 2009 12:56pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting luSan
Master O is bring out a thick book of regulations.
-He know so much that he want to make the market better.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aUfFlXRCsp9U

How will Forex be impacted?
Watch out!

Ai Ya, Bad mistake.

in my opinion, the ecomomic woes stamps from managers at higher levels who do not understand their job description and tasks. A generation of managers who lack experience to tap on, but armed only by academic excellence. This caused the foundational problems, one of which you are witnessing now. Surely the advisors who crafted this does not have deep understanding of the problems and are addressing this only on the crest only.

The real horse that pushed the economy into the depression that the us is in ,was the monetary policy mismanagement, as the chairman had declared , that he over reacted to certain market rioting causing run away infaltion that burst the bubble.

But the real problem existed at a deeper and more wide spread cancer of unchecked corrupt practises on the ground.
What the administration is attempting to address is the excessive risk appetite of financial institutions, forgetting that risk is inevitable for growth and industrial dvelopment, and therefore such actions to curb participation in the speculative risk undertaking also dampens the ability of said risk to be hedged. The result of wich would be stunted growth due to risk adversity.

The real cancer of which the adminstration is missing is that, the horse that pushed the cart over the cliff, was excessive and uncollateralised lending. There are two cancers strains. One is that the financial institutions have risk model of lending. But the heavy weighted component is asset valuation, and if such was corruptly inflated, then the model would fail. So that problem was VALUATION at the core.
The other is blatant policies in "clean" uncollateralised lending. Well if you understand whatwill happen if you lend money , to people , who either have no means to repay you, or has no intension of repayment. You would already understand the corrupt action.

To introduce more laws and by-laws to curb financial risk abilities,just goes against the grains of free markets system. Bwtter to allow offenders who violate prudent banking and financial in-house best risk practises to pay the price and learn from their folly , than to impose operating boundaries,,for them, and in the process robbing them the ability to think prudently. Anyway financial institution captains have no business where they are, if they are unable to think and carry to best practises. LOSSES, is their best teacher. Moreover their in-house best practises guidelines had evolved thru out the banking history, there is heaps of experience in there. Always if you look at the problem squarely, its the people and not the practise at the core of fault.

There is no, more efficient vehicles to risk managing than free markets. Hand cuffing the swimmers that participates in the swim, only supresses their ability and in the process encourages ............. you tell me..


Just my 2 cts.

regards
  • #7,663
  • Jun 17, 2009 1:20pm Jun 17, 2009 1:20pm
Chief,

Thats a preety pic...

V
  • #7,664
  • Jun 17, 2009 1:25pm Jun 17, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

Thats a preety pic...

V
Thanks, that was when I was at my pinnacle of life.
Now just one old candle waiting to extinguish.


By the way,indianguyinny, did you hit the wall earlier?
  • #7,665
  • Jun 17, 2009 2:01pm Jun 17, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting fti
Ai Ya, Bad mistake.

in my opinion, the ecomomic woes stamps from managers at higher levels who do not understand their job description and tasks. A generation of managers who lack experience to tap on, but armed only by academic excellence. This caused the foundational problems, one of which you are witnessing now. Surely the advisors who crafted this does not have deep understanding of the problems and are addressing this only on the crest only.

The real horse that pushed the economy into the depression that the us is in ,was the monetary policy...
Hi fti,

I agree with you:
There is no stronger concept
than the responsible handled freedom.

By the way: Do you have any scout out there in the market?
  • #7,666
  • Jun 17, 2009 2:52pm Jun 17, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting fti
Ai Ya, Bad mistake.

in my opinion, the ecomomic woes stamps from managers at higher levels who do not understand their job description and tasks. A generation of managers who lack experience to tap on, but armed only by academic excellence. This caused the foundational problems, one of which you are witnessing now. Surely the advisors who crafted this does not have deep understanding of the problems and are addressing this only on the crest only.

The real horse that pushed the economy into the depression that the us is in ,was the monetary policy...
Chief, you really know your stuff.
Thanks for confirming my thoughts about the insanity going on in Washington.
Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #7,667
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:00pm Jun 17, 2009 3:00pm
Hi FTI and all

I tried to calculate the direction of the market and what happened to me?!?

Attached Image
  • #7,668
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:06pm Jun 17, 2009 3:06pm
scout in @ e/u 3959
out 3942, have to watch for a bit.
  • #7,669
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:11pm Jun 17, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI and all


I tried to calculate the direction of the market and what happened to me?!?

Don't like to calculate the future moves.
I fully rely on my Crystal Ball

Will call it a day now.
Trade well.

Cu tomorrow.

MaMood
  • #7,670
  • Edited 4:40pm Jun 17, 2009 3:48pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

I agree with you:
There is no stronger concept
than the responsible handled freedom.

By the way: Do you have any scout out there in the market?
Hi MaMood,
Nope, no scouts out, but I keep getting interupted in sleep.
Made good $$ today already. Don't know why, Since returning from the "holiday". Things seem to take longer to settle to norms again.

Maybe becoming market junkie. trying to get into form.

I see what I missed in the run, Our option writers , they got a big piece of the premium pie today. Anyways their battle isn't over yet for a long shot. Any info on what tenure the 13700puts were sold for and at what premiums?
Anyone. I am lazy to check. Ah ya , I detected that nowadays I seem a litte lazy to go for things.
Tires easily, symptoms of ?

For now music meditation again, for a little time.
Jasmine Flowers
Inserted Video

Gunn
Inserted Video

Inserted Video

return
Inserted Video

getaway
Inserted Video

Elena
Inserted Video

Begin
Inserted Video

regards
  • #7,671
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:46pm Jun 17, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting fti
Thanks, that was when I was at my pinnacle of life.
Now just one old candle waiting to extinguish.


By the way,indianguyinny, did you hit the wall earlier?

Chief,

I lost the Battle i lost 5% of my equity ... THIS IS A HARD rule i follow...though if i waited 10 more minutes i would have breakeven...

i am taking break for 2 days and will be back on Sunday trading...

Thihngs to clear: last 3 times i was doing rescue so i had no idea where market was... need to see how i check my BIAS... i guess i am not Listening to charts... Today rescue were good till like last (before the last rescue my % loss was only 1.5%) 30 pips which i used for heavy rescue and damn that took me out...

Problem is not 5% equity loss problem is not making 1-2% a day... thats main problem

lot of things but dont want to put a lot of words here..

Thanks for asking though...

V

BTW : totally off topic... i am going to NYC to flirt with some womens ( i.e. i do look a little good too some womens ignored them earlier ... as after trading i go to home and trade) today 2 are already in list and next week onwards i am starting p90x workout schedule.... you really have to take care of your body guys...
  • #7,672
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:53pm Jun 17, 2009 4:53pm
You win some lose some Dont ve greedy and just stick with an approach
  • #7,673
  • Jun 17, 2009 5:00pm Jun 17, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

I lost the Battle i lost 5% of my equity ... THIS IS A HARD rule i follow...though if i waited 10 more minutes i would have breakeven...

i am taking break for 2 days and will be back on Sunday trading...

Thihngs to clear: last 3 times i was doing rescue so i had no idea where market was... need to see how i check my BIAS... i guess i am not Listening to charts... Today rescue were good till like last (before the last rescue my % loss was only 1.5%) 30 pips which i used for heavy rescue and damn that took me out...

Problem is...
Hi indianguyinny,
I am hearing you,it hurts.

Today isn't an easy trading day for many.
You have to have enough experience to detect the break variance. To day is one of those days where the difference between suceess and failure is a very thin line.
Like you realised you had to be listening and focus to survive. However, your MM limit discipline save your behind. Ask a novice , many accounts probably were blown to smitterines, today.
You will have nightmares of your emotional state today.
Its a good idea, to lay off for a while and let this sink in. Next time you will identify it , if it ever comes your way again. Makes for good discipline training. Now you understand, why the focus and MM discipline will be so important for your long term survival.Never be complacient in markets, and never force. You should never attack or rescue too strongly unless you have foreign cap to do so. So start small . and build again. do the ants work.

For Now go be kind to yourself, and the girls too.

regards
  • #7,674
  • Jun 17, 2009 5:08pm Jun 17, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting fti
Like you realised you had to be listening and focus to survive. Now you understand, why the focus and MM discipline will be so important for your long term survival.Never be complacient in markets, and never force.
This i really realized for sure...need to keep focus up to mark...

Quote
You will have nightmares of your emotional state today.
Its a good idea, to lay off for a while and let this sink...
Chief,

Thanks for kind word it hurt till yesterday... taking time off as my mind is not clear i can feel it....

One thing i learnt and implemented long time ago... losing a fight is never a big deal but not giving a good fight is never an option ... i think i missed in last 30 pips...


But MM saved me this is same MM which only gives me .15% everyday in same trading time.. so dont know what to fix....catch 22 i guess...

As you said it is Imp to fight some other day... will do from sunday...


V

BTW i cant be easy on girl
  • #7,675
  • Jun 17, 2009 5:14pm Jun 17, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
This i really realized for sure...need to keep focus up to mark...

Chief,...
  • #7,676
  • Jun 17, 2009 5:32pm Jun 17, 2009 5:32pm
Good morning, dear fti and all !

I left early yesterday. From today on, I'll learn to be an early bird

By the way, fti, nice avatar
  • #7,677
  • Jun 17, 2009 8:01pm Jun 17, 2009 8:01pm
Today's Tokyo seems dozy. There are talks about probably big buying EURJPY and AUDJPY will be around Tokyo fix.

Here's an article about mindset worth reading during the slow market:

Positive thinking's negative results

Words of wisdom (not really as wise as fti, but that's the article title)
 Jun 11th 2009
From The Economist print edition


For some people, optimistic thoughts can do more harm than good
“I CAN pass this exam”, “I am a wonderful person and will find love again” and “I am capable and deserve that pay rise” are phrases that students, the broken-hearted and driven employees may repeat to themselves over and over again in the face of adversity. Self-help books through the ages, including Norman Vincent Peale’s 1952 classic, “The Power of Positive Thinking”, have encouraged people with low self-esteem to make positive self-statements. New research, however, suggests it may do more harm than good.
Getty Imageshttp://www.economist.com/images/20090613/2409ST3.jpgI am important. I am, really
Since the 1960s psychologists have known that people are more accepting of ideas close to their own views and resistant to those that differ. With regard to self-perception, if a person who believes they are reasonably friendly is told that they are extremely gregarious, they will probably accept the idea. But if told they are socially aloof, the idea will most likely be met with resistance and doubt.
Wondering if the same tendencies could apply to making positive self-statements, Joanne Wood of the University of Waterloo in Canada and her colleagues designed a series of experiments. They questioned a group of 68 men and women using long-accepted methods to measure self-esteem. The participants were then asked to spend four minutes writing down any thoughts and feelings that were on their minds. In the midst of this, half were randomly assigned to say to themselves “I am a lovable person” every time they heard a bell ring.
Immediately after the exercise, they were asked questions such as “What is the probability that a 30-year-old will be involved in a happy, loving romance?” to measure individual moods using a scoring system that ranged from a low of zero to a high of 35. Past studies have indicated that optimistic answers indicate happy moods.
As the researchers report in Psychological Science, those with high self-esteem who repeated “I’m a lovable person” scored an average of 31 on their mood assessment compared with an average of 25 by those who did not repeat the phrase. Among participants with low self-esteem, those making the statement scored a dismal average of 10 while those that did not managed a brighter average of 17.
Dr Wood suggests that positive self-statements cause negative moods in people with low self-esteem because they conflict with those people’s views of themselves. When positive self-statements strongly conflict with self-perception, she argues, there is not mere resistance but a reinforcing of self-perception. People who view themselves as unlovable find saying that they are so unbelievable that it strengthens their own negative view rather than reversing it. Given that many readers of self-help books that encourage positive self-statements are likely to suffer from low self-esteem, they may be worse than useless.
  • #7,678
  • Jun 17, 2009 9:16pm Jun 17, 2009 9:16pm
Hi, FTI:

Good morning. I read indianguy's misfortune. The loss is -5%. Not big deal, but his daily profit target is 1%, then -5% loss is too much. He had done some resuces, and I think the resuces added to his loss.

I'd like take this opportunity to discuss some issues with you about rescues. The following is what I sent to MaMood several months ago when you are not around. I received no reply. Wish you may help.

"
If my scout is in trouble, them there will be some different senerios to think about. To discuss for convenience, let's say we open long positions.

1. The scout is actually is against intraday trend. If scout has some -tive pips like -50 pips, then I may see an opportunity to add more. If there is a big rebound, I closed add-ons. The scout will be stop-lossed if price touched lower. In this senerio, normally the loss is very small or a little profits.

2. The dipps turned out to be just a correction, and then I lost add-ons which should have made a killing. This made me frustrated since I lost good positions.

3. The rescue add-ons' timing is also bad or it is a huge drop without any sound and catchable rebound and then rescues are also in trouble when say, after first -50 or 100 pips drops. Then this will be a very dangours situation. Then I will try to find an another opportunity to send more troops to rescue(let's say another -50 or 100 pips drop). And then the price keeps fallling and a much bigger loss created. Then I collapse into hope and lost the courage to cut all losses until a huge loss. All my big losses are like this.

4. In order to avoud situation in case 3, I will wait a bigger drop say 150~200 pips. But in this case why shoudn't I have cut the rescue and flip from the beginning?

Rescue sounds good in a range market or a wide ranging up(or down) trend with big retracement during the trend. But we don't know the way market shall go before hand.
"

In fact, all my big losses are from failed rescues. It becomes a repeated nightmare.
  • #7,679
  • Jun 17, 2009 9:52pm Jun 17, 2009 9:52pm
David,

Hi, just some thoughts from your post,

Why set a figure on how many pips it has to move against you, before you look to rescue? It seems the charts should tell you when and how far?

While you are waiting for the market to run it’s course going away from you, you are losing valuable real-estate that could be pips in your bag if you were not married to your position.

Why would you enter against the trend? If you are in range then trade the range, but once it breaks out, if your on the wrong side…. Your going the wrong way.


Once the charts tell you it's going one direction, and you are going down the wrong street, either kill it and reverse or be prepared to ride that wave until the charts tell you they have reversed, no one knows how far that will be.


Just my $.02 but trying to save the scout shouldn’t cost the battle…. Don’t let it lose the war.

fwiw,

Regards,
  • #7,680
  • Jun 17, 2009 10:16pm Jun 17, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting auxesis
David,...
Thank you. So basically you also don't like resuces.

"Why set a figure on how many pips it has to move against you, before you look to rescue? " Because I have to allow some reasonable negative pips. No body's timing is so good that after he openned the position, it is in the money right after. Even so, a retracement could bring the position in red. Yes, I shoud look the chart for opportunity, but beforehand I must have some allowable negative pips either for MM and for resources to rescue.

Btw, if the negative pips are so small, say 20 pips, maybe it is not worth adding more since it is almost the same as more positions. Maybe there is no perfect answer, since the PA is not always "perfect" following your MO.
89 traders viewing now