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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #2,401
  • Jun 17, 2009 2:31am Jun 17, 2009 2:31am
Quoting activ
Hey,

Here you have next E/U chart. Everything is going correct with my previous counting. I suggest longs until new top on h4.
The market seems losing it's momentum, it's normal before important news so it may turn into bearish sooner.
  • #2,402
  • Jun 17, 2009 2:35am Jun 17, 2009 2:35am
Quoting Phi
Good idea

I don't mind scalping but I think more than 200pips up & down is not in small category, so [range trading] should be more appropriate.
...ya, well, I guess that's getting technical. Either way, I just took 57 pips out of the market by shorting the GBP/USD. She'll still go a little lower on this move, but I'm good with 57.
  • #2,403
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:34am Jun 17, 2009 3:34am
Quoting 200ema
...ya, well, I guess that's getting technical. Either way, I just took 57 pips out of the market by shorting the GBP/USD. She'll still go a little lower on this move, but I'm good with 57.
Make that 67. I just took another 10 on the up move that just happened.

That's good enough for me for one night/day of "scalping". I'll check back in a bit and see what else is setting up so I can get some larger moves with lower risk.

Cheers.
  • #2,404
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:15am Jun 17, 2009 4:15am
I think it's the beginning of wave 3 of c of last corrective wave.
  • #2,405
  • Jun 17, 2009 9:39am Jun 17, 2009 9:39am
If I'm correct about the triangle, the lows we have been seeing for the last few hours will put in the E, which will open up the market for the larger move up above 1.6661.
....We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.
  • #2,406
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:54pm Jun 17, 2009 3:54pm
hi all,

attached is my gbp/usd h1 chart..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #2,407
  • Edited 4:44pm Jun 17, 2009 4:09pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting 200ema
If I'm correct about the triangle, the lows we have been seeing for the last few hours will put in the E, which will open up the market for the larger move up above 1.6661.
....We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.
Hi 200ema, I thought triangle are structured in 3s. However, I can see quite a few 5 waves in the recent cable moves. Is this still vaild?

I'm struggling for a cable count at the moment so any clarification would be helpful. I see a down wave c of correction.

PS: I think we are in c of the triangle, btw. I'm not sure if the first wave is part of the triangle. I have it as wave 1 of the wave down.
  • #2,408
  • Jun 17, 2009 11:38pm Jun 17, 2009 11:38pm
Quoting 4cfx
Hi 200ema, I thought triangle are structured in 3s. However, I can see quite a few 5 waves in the recent cable moves. Is this still vaild?

I'm struggling for a cable count at the moment so any clarification would be helpful. I see a down wave c of correction.

PS: I think we are in c of the triangle, btw. I'm not sure if the first wave is part of the triangle. I have it as wave 1 of the wave down.
Hi 4cfx,

The GBP/USD is not an easy one to count right now. For example you could count the move up from the 1.5800 area as Blue Bottle has (1,2,3,4,5), or it could also be correctly counted as a, b, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5/c (if c is c of II on the way down). The same move up from the 1.5800 zone could also be counted as a truncated wave 5 of Y....

I think the truth of the matter is that we won't know which count is correct until we see price action break out of the sideways channel that it is currently in.

Personally, I'm expecting some short term GBP weakness followed by a new high above the 1.6661 currently in place...but again, we'll have to see where price action takes us.

In the BIG picture, I think that the GBP/USD is in a large retracement that is now topping out...but we'll see.......
  • #2,409
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:46am Jun 18, 2009 12:46am
Quoting 200ema
Hi 4cfx,

The GBP/USD is not an easy one to count right now. For example you could count the move up from the 1.5800 area as Blue Bottle has (1,2,3,4,5), or it could also be correctly counted as a, b, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5/c (if c is c of II on the way down). The same move up from the 1.5800 zone could also be counted as a truncated wave 5 of Y....

I think the truth of the matter is that we won't know which count is correct until we see price action break out of the sideways channel that it is currently in.

Personally, I'm expecting some short term...
Good morning 200ema, many thanks for your clarification. Cable is playing out a narrowing triangle range on the 4h starting from the high of 6662. It looks like it will break any minute, either the upper or lower trendline which will give us a clue in the wave formation. It is playing more towards the lower trendline though...I bias is towards south.
  • #2,410
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:08am Jun 18, 2009 3:08am
I know it's irrelevant to Elliot but there's a perfect bearish confirmation signal of [shooting star] hourly candlestick on G/U .
  • #2,411
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:23am Jun 18, 2009 3:23am
Hi Phi,

Thanks for pointing that out.

I shorted the GBP at 1.6458....but in all honesty, I never saw that until you mentioned it.
  • #2,412
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:53am Jun 18, 2009 3:53am
There's an expression in my culture: [when the door is locked use the window ]
  • #2,413
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:56am Jun 18, 2009 3:56am
Quoting Phi
There's an expression in my culture: [when the door is locked use the window ]
Cheers
  • #2,414
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:53am Jun 18, 2009 4:53am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd h1.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #2,415
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:16am Jun 18, 2009 7:16am
Here's my interpretation. According to this, we should have a wave up to e before plunging. Time will tell.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable 4H 18062009.jpg Size: 153 KB
  • #2,416
  • Edited 9:04am Jun 18, 2009 8:49am | Edited 9:04am
Yes, I believe your count is prior possibility
I think (200ema) is also seeing it this way.
  • #2,417
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:37am Jun 18, 2009 9:37am
Quoting Phi
Hi Phi and 4cfx,

I think you guys might have something there. On the 1H chart, over the last 24 hours or so, you can count out a clear 5 wave movement...the top of which may well be 5 of c of B. If that is correct, we are likely to see the GBP drop into the 1.5740 range.

To further strengthen that count, I can count a straight 5 wave decline on the 15min. chart, followed by a 3 wave advance up to the 61.8% fib of the previous move down...wave II of C?

We'll have to see if the next bullish move is corrective or impulsive.... I'll be watching for a little bit yet (before I call it a day), and "might" short the GBP if things look good for that move lower.... We'll have to wait and see.
  • #2,418
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:03am Jun 18, 2009 10:03am
With the London close getting closer, I think what we may see is price action neutralizing/stabilizing close to where it currently is (1.6362). If that is correct, I think we'll likely see a new bearish move during the next European session...it's a possibility, but I don't have anything to back that (or trade that) on right now.

We'll see what Frankfurt/London open tells us in the next session.
  • #2,419
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:49pm Jun 18, 2009 1:49pm
usd jpy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD JPY 18-6-2009 H4.gif Size: 112 KB
  • #2,420
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:15pm Jun 18, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting 200ema
Hi Phi and 4cfx,

I think you guys might have something there. On the 1H chart, over the last 24 hours or so, you can count out a clear 5 wave movement...the top of which may well be 5 of c of B. If that is correct, we are likely to see the GBP drop into the 1.5740 range.

To further strengthen that count, I can count a straight 5 wave decline on the 15min. chart, followed by a 3 wave advance up to the 61.8% fib of the previous move down...wave II of C?

We'll have to see if the next bullish move is corrective or impulsive.... I'll be watching...
This is why I like elliot wave - so many possibilities but also so many eliminations. We will know soon enough which way it will be. I don't think that triangle is going to hold for much longer. Also, according to a delta analysis done by someone else, we should see either an intermediate term top or a bottom by 22 June (give or take 3/4 days). It's a waiting game
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