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1 trade a day

  • #621
  • Jun 12, 2009 4:35pm Jun 12, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting alien
Hi Paulus.. Great thread

This sytem shurly works, but I've been considering other Entry, TP and SL
and here it goes... just please let me know what ya think about it..


GBP/USD
Entry:
11pips higher or lower...


Hi! Alien,

I have been trading it on live account since May 1st till today on six pairs and it has not disappointed me at all.

This new idea, can you put a chart up so that we can understand it? cos there was this modification of putting the SL in the middle of the Asian H/L and TP @ 1.618 which I tried for a week and it was getting me out of market untimely by taking the SL and still go the trade's direction.

I reverted back to the default way of doing it and things became normal again.

So we are a group of six traders doing it together everyday as it is in the first post and it is working brilliantly.

thanks Paulus

p.s. post your chart let us see what that your idea is
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #622
  • Edited 6:32am Jun 13, 2009 6:04am | Edited 6:32am
here are some good example ...

FX_N00b/ Entry is 11 pips from HI/LOw Asian session + spread
or 12-13 from HI/LOW and don't care about the spread

Idea is to trade this way on 500 USD account on mini Lots and double the Lot size when you earn 100%

like on my previous post , I've earned almost 50% in one week only on GBP/USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EXAMPLE #2.jpg Size: 96 KB
Attached Image
  • #623
  • Jun 13, 2009 6:07am Jun 13, 2009 6:07am
example 1.bmp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example #1.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #624
  • Edited 9:35am Jun 13, 2009 8:36am | Edited 9:35am
The last week has gone well. I'm comparing two alternate close options but just trading the GBPUSD. One option is to close all trades at +.618, the second is to close 1/2 lots at +.618, and close second half of the lots at the end of day price about 22:00. I'm using the Trade manager expert I posted earlier in the thread. The return has been amazing but I'm sure unrealistic as there will be occasional losses with a close at the SL level. The screenshot below is the combined return this week. The account manager indicator is available through the Elite section at TSD-FX forum.

I've been trying to locate a breakout expert to run this strategy and did find a half dozen on several forums. Unfortunately, most don't seem to place trades. My guess is the new five digit data feed is confusing the coding. I've asked a couple of the programmers if they'd like to customize their expert to fit the Fibonacci level close feature used by Paulus. So far no response.

A similar strategy has been tested before with an expert created called 'Asian High Asian Low'. See the thread at Forex-TSD. It uses the same Asian session range for a breakout, but uses smaller TP levels.

There have been many breakout strategies tested over the last few years including such famous ones as the Hans 123. Their success wavered a year or so ago when many currency markets were less volatile with shorter trends. IMHO the recent global financial crisis will probably provide us plenty of volatility and big trends in to make this breakout method successful for awhile.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #625
  • Jun 13, 2009 9:26am Jun 13, 2009 9:26am
On Thursday's chart you can see what I think is fairly common in Fibonacci movements, after the Asian session range. I can see two positive options for best TP and SL levels for the GBPUSD.

1.)
Enter trade at end of 8 bar GMT, buy stop at High + 10 pips + spread. (~+13p for Buy Stop, -10p for Sell Stop)
SL at 23.6% of Asian range.
TP on 1/2 lots at +.618 (161.8%), move SL from 23.6% to BE.
TP on 1/2 at +1.618 (261.8%) , or End-of-Day 22:00.

2.)
Enter trade at end of 8 bar GMT, buy stop at High + 10 pips + spread (~+13p for Buy Stop, -10p for Sell Stop).
SL at 23.6% of Asian range.
TP on 1/2 lots at +.5 (150%), keep SL at 23.6%
At +.618 (161.%) move last 1/2 lots to BE.
TP on last 1/2 at +1.618 (261.8%) , or End-of-Day 22:00.

These settings would just be for the GBPUSD. As everyone knows, the personality is quite different between the various GBP pairs. Some pairs like EURJPY and GBPJPY can bounce around and reverse on a breakout entrance. On these it would be interesting to try a close all at +.50 and leave both the buy and sell stop in play. This could catch the short spikes that often move both above and below the Asian session range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: One-trade-day-best-fibolevels.png Size: 58 KB
  • #626
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:48am Jun 13, 2009 10:48am
I took a lot of time to look as far back February day by day checking with the SL @ high and low of Asian time which was the original rule by Paulus. and I again check back same period using the mid point of Asian session as SL

My findings are that it is better with the original H/L as SL at the long run more than using any point within the Asian H/L cos it easily SL and go that direction

if we use the H/L as SL the trades that TP are more than the ones that SL and a few BE

And since then I have been doing it that way and its been well with my account

Mate you can check and confirm this

kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #627
  • Jun 13, 2009 11:18am Jun 13, 2009 11:18am
Can't someone make an EA for this system. I have a hard time getting up at 4am in the morning to set my trades.
Gary
  • #628
  • Jun 14, 2009 1:12am Jun 14, 2009 1:12am
Quoting alien
example 1.bmp

Thx for the charts !
  • #629
  • Jun 14, 2009 5:24am Jun 14, 2009 5:24am
Hi,
I always like the idea of reducing losses and if your idea of 23.6% works then I'm all for it. However aren't the fib levels based on previous movememnt rather than opening ranges. As always we can use what we like and I would never put any ther idea down. Just looking for some thoughts here.

I have been away for 2 weeks and I took "The Logical Trader" book with me by Mark Fisher. I had read this before and discounted a lot of what was in there probably due to inexperience as I have had it a long time. However, his book is all about opening ranges so this timeround it was very interesting. A good technique which I am going to add to my EA will be the "Sushi Roll" technique of taking out the previous hi and lo before entering/confirming a trade as I notice we get a swing often before a breakout. I will see how it goes.

Regards
Steve

Quoting Leomeister
On Thursday's chart you can see what I think is fairly common in Fibonacci movements, after the Asian session range. I can see two positive options for best TP and SL levels for the GBPUSD.

1.)
Enter trade at end of 8 bar GMT, buy stop at High + 10 pips + spread. (~+13p for Buy Stop, -10p for Sell Stop)
SL at 23.6% of Asian range.
TP on 1/2 lots at +.618 (161.8%), move SL from 23.6% to BE.
TP on 1/2 at +1.618 (261.8%) , or End-of-Day 22:00.

2.)
Enter trade at end of 8 bar GMT, buy stop at High + 10 pips + spread (~+13p for Buy Stop, -10p for...
  • #630
  • Jun 14, 2009 7:23am Jun 14, 2009 7:23am
hello alien,
may i know what is ur time range of your asia session?
Thank you


Quoting alien
here are some good example ...

FX_N00b/ Entry is 11 pips from HI/LOw Asian session + spread
or 12-13 from HI/LOW and don't care about the spread

Idea is to trade this way on 500 USD account on mini Lots and double the Lot size when you earn 100%

like on my previous post , I've earned almost 50% in one week only on GBP/USD
  • #631
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:35am Jun 14, 2009 10:35am
Quoting stevecartwright
Hi,
I always like the idea of reducing losses and if your idea of 23.6% works then I'm all for it. However aren't the fib levels based on previous movememnt rather than opening ranges. As always we can use what we like and I would never put any ther idea down. Just looking for some thoughts here.

Steve
Steve you're right that the fib analysis is usually drawn from a fractal pivot hi-low, or low-hi. Maybe its that with eight bars in the session these are usually both included ? On the chart example I posted for last Thursdays GBPUSD, the session low on the hammer(hanging man) bar is slightly lower than the true fractal low three bars before it. But close enough to give the range for a fairly accurate fib measurement. If the 23% is a safe SL level it would most accurately be drawn from the true fractal low to hi even if that means including a a couple bars before our Asian session begins. I'll watch for that this week.
  • #632
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:48am Jun 14, 2009 10:48am
Hi Leomeister,
No problem. This is the most interesting & taxing area of trading when to get out with maximum profit/minimum loss.
As I noted earlier I am looking at the Sushi Roll as per Fishers book as a potential area for exiting. It basically looks (for a short trade) at taking out a high then a low over 10bars (last 5 versus previous5) and then closing to the low side. This can be reversed for stops/exits as it gives an indication of possible stop running before reversing. Its an interesting thought process but as yet I have no stats etc.
Regards
Steve

Quoting Leomeister
Steve you're right that the fib analysis is usually drawn from a fractal pivot hi-low, or low-hi. Maybe its that with eight bars in the session these are usually both included ? On the chart example I posted for last Thursdays GBPUSD, the session low on the hammer(hanging man) bar is slightly lower than the true fractal low three bars before it. But close enough to give the range for a fairly accurate fib measurement. If the 23% is a safe SL level it would most accurately be drawn from the true fractal low to hi even if that means including a a...
  • #633
  • Jun 14, 2009 11:08am Jun 14, 2009 11:08am
hi everyone..
1.sorry for this same stupid question,can u guys check my asian session hi and lo.should there be 8 candles or 9?i think my start of asian session is correct,but my end session should be 1 candle more or earlier.

2.the trading rules are:
Entry : session High/Low + 10pip + spread for Buy/Sell
SL : session Low/High for Buy/Sell or
23% or 50% of the asian session's high-low
TP : 1.68 fib extension of asian session or
1.23 fib extension

which of the sl and tp variant we can all agree with?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu asian hl.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #634
  • Jun 14, 2009 1:44pm Jun 14, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting wltam
hello alien,
may i know what is ur time range of your asia session?
Thank you

it's GMT 3
  • #635
  • Jun 14, 2009 4:17pm Jun 14, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting Leomeister
On Thursday's chart you can see what I think is fairly common in Fibonacci movements, after the Asian session range. I can see two positive options for best TP and SL levels for the GBPUSD.

1.)
Enter trade at end of 8 bar GMT, buy stop at High + 10 pips + spread. (~+13p for Buy Stop, -10p for Sell Stop)
SL at 23.6% of Asian range.
TP on 1/2 lots at +.618 (161.8%), move SL from 23.6% to BE.
TP on 1/2 at +1.618 (261.8%) , or End-of-Day 22:00.

2.)
Enter trade at end of 8 bar GMT, buy stop at High + 10 pips + spread (~+13p for Buy Stop, -10p for...
Leo,

Thanks for the very informative post...which of the 2 TP scenarios do you favor? I will incorporate your SL mod into GU trading this week.

Good trading,
Bob
  • #636
  • Jun 16, 2009 4:00am Jun 16, 2009 4:00am
Hi Guyz,
Been following this Thread quietly as i trade smething similar on the London Breakout.
I notice the Thread is quiet or are we all making some SOLID PIPS and have no time to post.
Am still in the G/U long (I love that it is in the direction of the Larger Time Frames) and hope my T/P of 1.6446 gets hit...was in at 1.6298 n my S/L at 1.6222......
  • #637
  • Jun 16, 2009 4:01am Jun 16, 2009 4:01am
Well guess what? Just as i was posting, my T/P got hit...another successful day.....
Nice trading guyz
  • #638
  • Jun 16, 2009 4:14am Jun 16, 2009 4:14am
GU target hit. I will stay out of GJ, For me box to large
  • #639
  • Jun 16, 2009 4:27am Jun 16, 2009 4:27am
Matlobien, good judgement on G/J.
Apart from the large Box, i also look at the ADR & today range...if the two are close, i do not bother with that particular pair....it has really saved me a number of times when am about to pull the trigger
  • #640
  • Jun 16, 2009 7:36am Jun 16, 2009 7:36am
1st trade made +88 pips profit at TP1; remaining lot is set at BE, but currently positive at +118 pips. Tempting to close the 2nd lot, but I'll try to curb my greed and follow the exit rules.

Thanks, Paulus!
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