Daily GBP/JPY analysis

Will be looking an upbump again (Mother's idea) and a nearly double bottom, it's a pretty common bottom fishing area.

cesar.... where are you getting this commentary?

just try gambling in those moments like this if you want to do something or just wait...wait. me-long from 237.54 just fighting with where to put SL like everytime 237 is ok I think, under this line its gonna touch the 236.20 again an then..? .. up again or a break down, need a big move to get back my money

Agreed, but USDJPY's volatility scares the crap out of me.. Tokyo started near 119.0. Frankfurt started at 118.30. NYC took it back to 119.0 and then 118.40.

If UJ ends the day at 118.77, it gave 200+ pips move to end a doji. Problem will be: what's next?

I'm waiting first chance to reduce severely (or zero) my Yen positions here, at least until some definition below 118.0 of above 119.0 takes place...

I agree with you, I managed to get out from short with few pips in profit, now i'm long but this doesn't look good anymore ...

Yea Yen is tough trade for sure, build both cases then work the probabilities, Yen ran a daily channel up, peaked now sitting on the lows of that channel. THE BUY ZONE, If smart money is bullish where is the buying, Also broke back within the decending channel 122.04 hi 115. lo which is now a strong res area, The banking scare was a shot across the bow for the carry trade, does it disappear overnight NO but you just have to know that smart money dont buy the highs unless they are bullish. Your order my order everyone in this forums orders dont move this market, Professional money moves the market. What are they thinking and how do we trade along side with them. Understanding volume can better our chances to see where when and how much they participate, will tell you what time frames are playing at once. But the LT trader month year quaterly guy he isnt buying, he will buy at the discount if he is bullish to add to his already NO RISK trade for many years already.

I'm getting a long signal in UJ monthly chart since ema 20 crossed ema 100 upwards there. Let's see tho, this month is still 5 trading days left.

13:26 We are going to keep a close mean eye on this EUR/JPY..We think the intra day market has been psychologically scarred selling today but with potential for Bund redemptions to hit this week the risk still must be to the downside

That's what I need to start planning my all-out.... This "Bund redemption" whatever the hell it means (I'll google later ) was responsible for UJ at 117.80, if I can recall properly....

In the other hand, Cable letargic at 0020, closing below 0044 will suggest further correction 9952 (78% fib 9902-0131) not traded yet.

I thought this Monday would give direction, but no. Dow Jones trading water today is also a call for "go do something else"...

I'll only get in when I catch the next trend, b/c this stuff is for things that fly (like the birds). The way it's looking I'm out until I get some kind of clear indication where we are heading.

And what beat's everything is b/c there is little news today - it was supposed to be a great non-volitile day for trading. Go figure.

I am seeing an equal triangle on the 4 hour chart and a descending triangle on the weekly. It looks to me like the price might break out to the downside?

Amen....my short on this pair frm 78.6 fibo (not again ) 237.89 awaits TP 236.31 (todays low)

What a day. Up, down, up, no news or anything or justify it. What the hell are these guys thinking? You know, it would be nice if the banks came together for some coffee before a session and decided on what the hell they want to do. Save us a lot of headache.

Anyway, price action has shown more aggressive selling than buying. The latest attempt at 119 in the USDJPY was utterly crushed. I wouldn't put money on this, but I think the Yen is gaining overall on the very short term.

Do u trade monthly charts in UJ? and if so, backtestng ema20/ema100 cross is not so promising, at least in the last three or 4 crosses.

This is a must-read.

Yen May Extend Gains Against Euro on Growth, BOJ Rate Outlook
By Min Zeng
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may extend its advance against the euro on speculation a strengthening economy will push the Bank of Japan to quicken the pace of interest-rate increases this year.
Strategists and traders said the BOJ may mention growing confidence in the economy when it releases its semiannual outlook this week, leading investors to cut investments in higher-yielding assets financed by borrowing in the yen, known as carry trades.

Full story

My view
Yen weakness is being the theme since Feb's G7 summit. All central bank officers keep the "must reflect fundamental" routine, which clearly indicates that, although Japanese economy is recovering, little is done in what concerns to value the currency.

In recent several sessions, USDJPY failed to go thru 119.00 mark and it is way far from 120 figure, that could inspire buyers for continuation.

Critical, though, is the Head and Shoulder formed in the daily USDJPY, which neckline lies at 115.00 and threoretical target at 105.00

I'm the one who refuses to call "trend reversals" at the first trendline broken. But in Yen's case, my red-alert is off already. I suspect that we may be in the verge of a major long-term trend reversal.

A basket of JPY news is due on Thursday, BOJ rate statement and Outlook on Friday. CPI coming positive with strong Retal Sales as forecast and the market is likely to start looking at UJ with new eyes. Rate is expected to be kept at 0.5%, but strong economical figures may lead the market to believe in a rate hike soon, pretty soon, specially with the pressure from the worldwide economic comunity.

I no longer nurture expectations for UJ above 120.00, unless the upcoming data comes really, really bad.

And with today's chaotic trades, I'm looking foward to upcoming Tokyo fix to get rid of my trades, losers or winners. No point in staying in the market with such messy sentiment, gossips, CB officers intervention and a pack of news right at the horizon.

H&S forming in the Daily

Thanks cesar for that insightful piece. This analyst is agreeing with me it seems, but from experience whenever I and the analysts agree we are usually both wrong

That's pretty much my sentiment ceasarnc, though I could never articulate it as well as you. I took a gamble & opened up a larger than usual lot size & recovered some of my losses on the bounce up at 236.60 yesterday so I can deal with a minor wipeout. The red flag for me was the Asian & European banks buying Yen like crazy yesterday, along with the rumors of a BOJ rate hike. I'm staying out until I see a clear direction & feel I have a good understanding of why it's moving the way it is, up or down. IF a true trend change is coming, it's going to fall hard. There should be no mistaking it.

We can feel the smoke getting thicker and darker, one candle after the other here...

Absolutely my friend trade like a big boys and not with a crowd because majority decision is always wrong (only in FOREX )

i am still buying that dip we just went through. maybe a bad thing. we will see. bought at .85, .90 and .95