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Attachments: New Variation on 7 am to 9 am Breakout Strategy
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New Variation on 7 am to 9 am Breakout Strategy

  • #81
  • Jun 9, 2009 12:40pm Jun 9, 2009 12:40pm
Gustav, you need the Fib EXTENSION tool, rather than the default retracement tool. The extension tool is not on the toolbar by default. Place it on the chart. Highlight, rightclick it, then alter the levels in the menu. You can then drag the three points to the edge of the box.
  • #82
  • Jun 9, 2009 2:39pm Jun 9, 2009 2:39pm
I've made backtesting and I would say this system doesn't work. One month the results are impressive and next month there is a big loss for example in march and in april
Anyway I've been playing live the oryginal system on GPBUSD pair a few months ago and faced the same results
  • #83
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:18pm Jun 9, 2009 3:18pm
look so good
i will try it
  • #84
  • Jun 10, 2009 8:17am Jun 10, 2009 8:17am
I've attached an Excel spreadsheet I've been using every morning. I believe it captures the rules that have been laid out in this thread.

This spreadsheet takes the high and low you enter and tells you what the entry and TP levels are. In addition, you can enter a max box size as a filter. In the thread, we've discussed the observation that if the high-low distance (i.e. "the box") is less that 45-50 pips, then the odds of the trade working out are better. You can enter any max box size you wish, but I've filled it in as 45 pips by default. There's a field that basically says Yes or No to say whether or not to take the trade based on this filter.

I'm on Oanda so we don't use lots or micro-lots but units. So my spreadsheet will also tell you how many units to trade based on you max risk amount and the initial entry and stop prices.

I protected the sheet with no password, so you can unprotect the sheet easily. I only did this to prevent me from screwing up the formula cells.

I've found it useful; hopefully at least one other person will too.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 7am-9am breakout calculator.xls   14 KB | 782 downloads
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #85
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:17am Jun 10, 2009 10:17am
Quoting mer071898
If you look at the box range on those days, especially 5/19 & 5/22, they were well over 70+pips. What's happening is your exhausting the range and not allowing room to trade. If it were me I would limit the box range to 1/4 to 1/3 of the average daily range to limit the risk. And do not trade if the box range is over 45-50 pips maximum. Obviously, this is just an opinion and not to be construed any differently.
can you post your template on this? I cant figure out how to set the fibs up like you have them
  • #86
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:26am Jun 10, 2009 10:26am
Quoting rizi
I've made backtesting and I would say this system doesn't work. One month the results are impressive and next month there is a big loss for example in march and in april
Anyway I've been playing live the oryginal system on GPBUSD pair a few months ago and faced the same results
I would agree that based on my original post it turns out fairly close to a breakeven. However, there was a backtest done and if the box size is limited to 45 pips, the gains are substantially higher than the losses trading the EUR/USD. The problem appears to be exhaustion if the box is too big. There are backtesting results posted in this thread where you can find the max box size and view the results that way.
  • #87
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:28am Jun 10, 2009 10:28am
Quoting jdsim1
can you post your template on this? I cant figure out how to set the fibs up like you have them
I do not have a template for this as I don't trade using MetaTrader. stevegee58 posted a spreadsheet to give you the numbers if you only know the high/low. I'm sure someone on here can post a template for it that does use MetaTrader.
  • #88
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:59am Jun 12, 2009 9:59am
Quoting lucashammer
This is my trade from 5/21. The first picture shows the pending orders as set up in FXCM which is who I trade through. The second picture shows after the long order was triggered and the stops were hit. I cancelled the short orders as soon as my long orders were triggered.
lucashammer,

I just started using Marketscope 2.0 and am new to Forex. I SIM traded your 7-9am strategy the past 2 days and have had all gains and no losses.

My question to you is you recommend placing 3 limits with the pending order and scale out of the trade.
Quote
You'll have three limits set up, one for each third of your trade. Take profit on one third at 1.500, take profit again on another third at 1.764, and take profit on the rest of the trade at 2.000. For the SL, move them up to break even as soon as the first TP is hit, then move them to the first TP line when the second TP is hit to make sure that you lock in some profit
.
I placed my pending entry order but how do I add the other 2 limits without opening 2 more pending entry orders?
  • #89
  • Jun 12, 2009 11:29am Jun 12, 2009 11:29am
Quoting Eminiforex
lucashammer,

I just started using Marketscope 2.0 and am new to Forex. I SIM traded your 7-9am strategy the past 2 days and have had all gains and no losses.

My question to you is you recommend placing 3 limits with the pending order and scale out of the trade. .
I placed my pending entry order but how do I add the other 2 limits without opening 2 more pending entry orders?
Eminiforex,

Glad to hear you've had success with my strategy. I actually place three pending orders in each direction, each for a third of what I would normally trade. There is not a way that I know of to place a single order with three limits. I know it gets a little tedious but it is worth it in my opinion.

Lucas
  • #90
  • Jun 12, 2009 11:37am Jun 12, 2009 11:37am
Which pairs have you traded this with?

According to the 45 pip filter rule, there wouldn't have been any trades this week.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #91
  • Edited 1:21pm Jun 12, 2009 12:25pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting stevegee58
Which pairs have you traded this with?

According to the 45 pip filter rule, there wouldn't have been any trades this week.
On 6-10-09 I traded the EUR/USD. I just did one pending order and one profit target. I hit the 1st profit target and made 19 pips and the price went a total of 107 pips.

The second trade was on 6-11-09 with the EUR/USD and I got 16 pips and it trended for 162 total pips. I will start putting 3 pending orders next time to get more pips.

I have attached screen shots of both days below:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-11-09 EURUSD.JPG Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-10-09 EURUSD.JPG Size: 98 KB
  • #92
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:40pm Jun 12, 2009 12:40pm
Earlier we determined that having the box smaller than 50 pips improved your odds in this setup. That said, I followed the rules but watched as price action moved so that it would have been profitable anyway. LOL
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #93
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:52pm Jun 12, 2009 12:52pm
Um you should have been able to upload a .doc file.

When I do a screen cap, I save it to a png or jpg file and upload it to either here or tinypic.com
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #94
  • Jun 12, 2009 1:37pm Jun 12, 2009 1:37pm
I just ALT+Print Screen and paste into mspaint, save as a jpeg.
  • #95
  • Jun 15, 2009 12:06pm Jun 15, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting lucashammer
zznbrm,

EDIT: Nevermind, I see it now. By the way, profit was noticeably higher limited the box to less than 50 pips.

EDIT: Final edit, 45 pips seems to be the magic number on this backtest. Pips showing around 1000 if the box size is limited to Less Than 45. zznbrm, Thanks again. This is invaluable in updating my system.
Lucas, how did you manipulate the box size using BigDogFibTestUSD-NY file?
  • #96
  • Jun 15, 2009 3:12pm Jun 15, 2009 3:12pm
hi guys.i am not familiar with fibonnaci retracement technique.can anyone give a link to a comprehensive tutorial on it 4 me pls cos i want to employ this Lucas strategy.thank you
  • #97
  • Jun 15, 2009 4:46pm Jun 15, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting forexkev
Lucas, how did you manipulate the box size using BigDogFibTestUSD-NY file?
I don't use the file since I don't use MetaTrader to make my trades. The backtest results were posted by someone else a little while back and using excel, I tested the results with different box sizes.
  • #98
  • Jun 15, 2009 4:46pm Jun 15, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting lucashammer
I don't use the file since I don't use MetaTrader to make my trades. The backtest results were posted by someone else a little while back and using excel, I tested the results with different box sizes.
I don't use the fibonacci retracements the way that most people do. I simply used them just to have mechanical entry and exit points to remove any emotion from it. I'm sure someone can post the uses on here somewhere.
  • #99
  • Jun 15, 2009 5:27pm Jun 15, 2009 5:27pm
Hi lucas:
It's been over a year since your first post, how do you think your system has done overall this past year? Thanks for your input

Jim
  • #100
  • Jun 16, 2009 8:06am Jun 16, 2009 8:06am
Quoting bigjim1958
Hi lucas:
It's been over a year since your first post, how do you think your system has done overall this past year? Thanks for your input

Jim
Hi Jim,

It's actually been about a month since my first post. However, keeping the box under 45 through backtests showed a much higher probability for success.

Lucas
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