Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 364 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,261
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:06pm Jun 11, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting Zoran
So when are you going to get into this a little deeper? I remember you said once that we'll know when we're ready.

I was wondering whether this strategy I have somehow relates to your long sword? I know the overnighter is just an extension of the short sword but the long sword terminology you use has me baffled.

Do we need to understand options to get the gist of things?
yes, Zoran.
spots, forwards,options, synthetics, theoritical edge and premiums and underwriting mastery. Not for the uninitiated, Moreover high cap intensive. For pros not for punters.
  • #7,262
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:07pm Jun 11, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting fti
so is Nic, anyway noted. not 27

yeah, they don't like me.
Sheeps still control.
Don't know what the toyko boys think.
Seems the sheeps keep making my profits disapear. lately.
anyway have lots of ammo, lets see.

maybe I am getting rigid? sure hope not.
Who motivates the motivator?
Who saves the a...a...a pro?
Only angels can, I guess.

I 'll probably give it a little more rope. Otherwise I call it a week.

regards
again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70GF-zPUuO4&fmt=18

....i am not saying you are old....just need to state the obvious so u will stop speculating lol

Not so sure about tokyo as i usually join them after lunch.

Are you experiencing this - "无敌是寂寞的“


calling it a day, cant take it anymore, just realized I got bloodshot in my eye from 18 hrs of watching....need to get a life...but later FRIDAY woohoooo

see you in London open

cheers
  • #7,263
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:10pm Jun 11, 2009 7:10pm
Quoting auxesis
Oh My!!

edit: right shoulder looking ugly.
Ai yah DAILY la.

wakey,wakey.

Dancers please dance the tune.
Inserted Video


regards
  • #7,264
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:12pm Jun 11, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting fti
yes, Zoran.
spots, forwards,options, synthetics, theoritical edge and premiums and underwriting mastery. Not for the uninitiated, Moreover high cap intensive. For pros not for punters.
OK, so I assume you still use your long sword? How does it assist with your short sword battles? Are they directly related or does it just set the background to those battles?
  • #7,265
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:24pm Jun 11, 2009 7:24pm
LOL eveybody so sleepy....

before i sign out,

hi zoran, you may want to google around the net for terms like financial greeks and black scholes, then decided if you want to proceed. like the way fti puts it, theorectical edge, look at ltcm, nothing is fail proof.
  • #7,266
  • Edited 8:32pm Jun 11, 2009 7:55pm | Edited 8:32pm
watching that e/u 4097 area, will see what that brings us, and watching that 4127 area tryiing to figure out which way she wants to go.

Hope all were able to grab profits as PA was another classic example of why its my favorite time here in the shallow end.
  • #7,267
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:04pm Jun 11, 2009 8:04pm
Quoting Zoran
So when are you going to get into this a little deeper? I remember you said once that we'll know when we're ready.

I was wondering whether this strategy I have somehow relates to your long sword? I know the overnighter is just an extension of the short sword but the long sword terminology you use has me baffled.

Do we need to understand options to get the gist of things?
Zoran:

I don't know what our master fti has in mind on the long sword, but option is not as simple as it appears in the everyday newspaper advertisement.

I has spent a little effort in exploring this option (for stocks) thingie, and come to conclusion that it is not my battlefield. Not my level now, at least.

You see, it goes beyond buying/writing put and calls. It goes beyond just combining 2 options to form a strategy. It requires proficient understanding of various greeks (rate of change) and strategies, their relationships/mutation routs, how/when to "dismantle/erect" another leg as changes come along, and when to continue/stop squeeze every bit out.

In a way, it is similar in principle to what fti has presented in the short sword - adapt and react to market, but the actual fistfight, one has to lay hand on more than just price movement (beside money management).

I am not sure how proficient are fellow fti followers here, but I don't think many can handle that, especially in a faceless online forum like this.
  • #7,268
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:50pm Jun 11, 2009 8:50pm
Quoting hcong168
Zoran:

I don't know what our master fti has in mind on the long sword, but option is not as simple as it appears in the everyday newspaper advertisement.

I has spent a little effort in exploring this option (for stocks) thingie, and come to conclusion that it is not my battlefield. Not my level now, at least.

You see, it goes beyond buying/writing put and calls. It goes beyond just combining 2 options to form a strategy. It requires proficient understanding of various greeks (rate of change) and strategies, their relationships/mutation routs,...
Myself, I look at the larger timeframes as I would the smaller 15, hrly, 4 hr. So after the close of last week and looking at the weekly for me 1.3839 was an area of interest or what I would watch for to buy and hold a portion for the week.
  • #7,269
  • Edited 9:04pm Jun 11, 2009 8:54pm | Edited 9:04pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
....i am not saying you are old....just need to state the obvious so u will stop speculating lol

Not so sure about tokyo as i usually join them after lunch.

Are you experiencing this - "无敌是寂寞的“


calling it a day, cant take it anymore, just realized I got bloodshot in my eye from 18 hrs of watching....need to get a life...but later FRIDAY woohoooo

see you in London open

cheers

嗤笑我 !

不懠不懠
我不懠
無友人孤獨
無敵鎗不利
人的一生
全靠奮門
唯有奮門
才能成功

Inserted Video

regards
  • #7,270
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:10pm Jun 11, 2009 9:10pm
Quoting Zoran
So when are you going to get into this a little deeper? I remember you said once that we'll know when we're ready.

I was wondering whether this strategy I have somehow relates to your long sword? I know the overnighter is just an extension of the short sword but the long sword terminology you use has me baffled.

Do we need to understand options to get the gist of things?
Hi Zoran,
Every one likes to fly before can can walk.
Why do you think most of long tenure traders normally end in the bin.
short sword does not need the long sword proficiency.
But long sword cannot be trained without short sword proficiency.

If you arrives you can figure it out for yourself easily.
Then I think you will probably laugh at the gamblings.

regards
  • #7,271
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:16pm Jun 11, 2009 9:16pm
Quoting Zoran
OK, so I assume you still use your long sword? How does it assist with your short sword battles? Are they directly related or does it just set the background to those battles?
No, I am retired. I spare myself the pain and inconvenience.
I am really trading , more for mental jogging,but of course to make some pocket money too.

regards
  • #7,272
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:18pm Jun 11, 2009 9:18pm
Quoting lilpip
watching that e/u 4097 area, will see what that brings us, and watching that 4127 area tryiing to figure out which way she wants to go.

Hope all were able to grab profits as PA was another classic example of why its my favorite time here in the shallow end.
shallow end
  • #7,273
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:26pm Jun 11, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting hcong168
Zoran:

I don't know what our master fti has in mind on the long sword, but option is not as simple as it appears in the everyday newspaper advertisement.

I has spent a little effort in exploring this option (for stocks) thingie, and come to conclusion that it is not my battlefield. Not my level now, at least.

You see, it goes beyond buying/writing put and calls. It goes beyond just combining 2 options to form a strategy. It requires proficient understanding of various greeks (rate of change) and strategies, their relationships/mutation...
multi dimensional. very skills intensive stuff.
much better than all the long tenure junkies, out there.
Sometime, very ball breaking. Whne it comes in.......lets say beyond your wildest imaginable, limited downside with unlimited potential due to synthetics TE. But not like buying options, thats insurance.

regards
  • #7,274
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:30pm Jun 11, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting lilpip
Myself, I look at the larger timeframes as I would the smaller 15, hrly, 4 hr. So after the close of last week and looking at the weekly for me 1.3839 was an area of interest or what I would watch for to buy and hold a portion for the week.
This way, the best you can achieve is extended gamble rides.(small boy rides) Could turn into "hope" junkie, if not careful with scorpions. VERY EASILY. Not too often, best view it as unnecessary gamble fixes, sometimes, when you get itch behinds.

Babysitting is already dangerous enough, Blind punting, not unless you have made too much money.

regards
  • #7,275
  • Edited 11:08pm Jun 11, 2009 9:36pm | Edited 11:08pm
Ok, guys, tokyo says,
So best square out to await London. Then lets test their resolves again.

gotta get some rest.

regards

Brother bear.
Inserted Video

yeap, I will be there trading , just like you.

OMG, Looks like I not gonna nap, maybe music meditation.
Beautiful vocal Woman 's heart coordination. So Sweet.
Inserted Video

bet , that these eve's will never burn their bras. LOL
But of course Elenor did the first cut so beautifully as well. The bass, wow.

Wow, Eric Clapton in a dress.Wow versatile.
Inserted Video

you judge.., and her audiophile cut is High end systems test CD.
Inserted Video

Sarah angel, for DutchAngel.
Inserted Video
  • #7,276
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:58pm Jun 11, 2009 10:58pm
Quoting fti
This way, the best you can achieve is extended gamble rides.(small boy rides) Could turn into "hope" junkie, if not careful with scorpions. VERY EASILY. Not too often, best view it as unnecessary gamble fixes, sometimes, when you get itch behinds.

Babysitting is already dangerous enough, Blind punting, not unless you have made too much money.

regards
You have taught me the dangers of holding positions when not babysitting and the market movements daily underscore that.
However, just as we watch and get a feel for the movement, that was the case last friday as I felt she was getting into position for the coming new weekly time frame testing for support just as we would see these attempts on 4hr, 1hr. 15 min.
As she continued down on mon., tue. verified support in the area of extra interest 3839 and the speed of moving out aloud in my mind a portion left to run overnight to build the long sword since that was telling me the trend was to be up for the weekly time frame from that point.
  • #7,277
  • Edited 11:43pm Jun 11, 2009 11:19pm | Edited 11:43pm
Hardcore. ccane PG18
Inserted Video

leela
Inserted Video


watch it, someones kicking sheep butts in Euroland, huh.
cannot be fft, too early, Who !

Sg, HK, Beijing?
  • #7,278
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:35pm Jun 11, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting Zoran
David, please explain the benefit of buy-and-hold and how it gets applied. There is nothing nimble about buy-and-hold.

The overnighter is a scout sized entry left to ride a trend if the trend looks to be continuing and sufficent capital was collected during the day. I don't see this as buy-and-hold based on the conversation you are having.
OK. First, buy-and-hold or riding, you should not do it on a wrong position (against trend).

For intra-day trading based on 5M chart, say, a price moved finally 100 pips. But during the process, it could be very complicated. No body can catch every small wave. If there is a 50 pips correction, fine, you can close and jump in again. What about there are very small corrections (yesterday's E/U big increase is a good example)? You just lost your positions and with no fixed cretiarea to jump in again. I don't think anybody is so smart that he can catch every small waves.

For the real application in mid-term, please see my post in TAF Lounge in March (around 20th).

As the reason to carry over, it depends the situation, of course you need confidence and correct judgement (Without these two, you will lose no matter what method anyway). And proper size is of course important. As for foreign capital, it has nothing to do with the market situation.
  • #7,279
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:43pm Jun 11, 2009 11:43pm
David,
was that you??
sweeps, sweeps, who?
joining in, S 14084

lets hope he doesn't turn belly in waters. lol
  • #7,280
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:55pm Jun 11, 2009 11:55pm
speaking about cocaine
I had a strange high last night ...
probably from the cough syrup I had
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
6 traders viewing now