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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #2,341
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:30am Jun 11, 2009 10:30am
The 88.6% retracement level at 1.6564 will likely produce a bounce downward at the least.

I'll be watching to see if a new 4th wave forms (on my indicator) on a higher time frame.
  • #2,342
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:42am Jun 11, 2009 10:42am
Top of a wave 5 on the 1H chart...We'll have to wait to see if their will be a further (small) push high above the 1.6564 level, but the 1H wave 5 is done (if not all but done).

4H chart is indicating a top of a wave 3. If this holds, we'll likely see the GBP/USD back down into the 1.6250-1.6170 range (4H charts are not that good for getting too precise for entry/exit points, but lower time frames get much better as the price action gets close to it's terminus.).
  • #2,343
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:03am Jun 11, 2009 11:03am
Quoting sarasxxx
and I also would like to show G/U H1... please comment
Think you've got it spot on. Here's my count for today. I'm not sure if we have reached the top of wave 5 or if there's more to go. I've gone with the latter for price action. Also, I've broken down the subwaves and treated wave iii only as diagonal. Otherwise, the diagonal seems too expanding. Is an expanding diagonal acceptable?

Another question, if 6670 is taken out in the retest, does this mean that wave 4 is not yet complete?

Thanks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,344
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:15am Jun 11, 2009 11:15am
Hi 4cfx,

From what I can see at the moment, the drop down is likely to end around the 1.6500 area and will be a wave 4 on the 15 min chart.

To address the daily chart question, it's unlikely that wave 4 is not completed. I think we are into wave V of C of 4 on the daily.
Time will tell if I'm correct or not on that one though.
  • #2,345
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:22am Jun 11, 2009 11:22am
Wave 5 of C on the 15 min. chart should make a new low below the 1.6525. Currently in wave 4 of C by the looks of things. If you're short a good place to exit would be 1.6515.
  • #2,346
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:24am Jun 11, 2009 11:24am
Quoting 200ema
Hi 4cfx,

From what I can see at the moment, the drop down is likely to end around the 1.6500 area and will be a wave 4 on the 15 min chart.

To address the daily chart question, it's unlikely that wave 4 is not completed. I think we are into wave V of C of 4 on the daily.
Time will tell if I'm correct or not on that one though.
Thanks 200ema. That's what the daily chart looks to me as well. But somehow, with all the pa, it's hard to see how cable will drop lower than 58 as we have done. As you say, time will tell.
  • #2,347
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:42am Jun 11, 2009 11:42am
Quoting 4cfx
Think you've got it spot on. Here's my count for today. I'm not sure if we have reached the top of wave 5 or if there's more to go. I've gone with the latter for price action. Also, I've broken down the subwaves and treated wave iii only as diagonal. Otherwise, the diagonal seems too expanding. Is an expanding diagonal acceptable?

Another question, if 6670 is taken out in the retest, does this mean that wave 4 is not yet complete?

Thanks.

Attachment
Hey, according to my count we are currently in wave 5 on 4H chart and I consider that wave 4 is finished and that is basing on the "principle of alternation" - wave 2 was long in time and an irregular so wave 4 has to be short in time and simple. So thats why it doesnt matter if 6670 is broken. An anyway according to my H1 chart around that price I will go short since there is my 5th wave and with that we will have the 1st wave of bigger degree wave 5 completed. I hope I helped
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GPBUSD H1.GIF Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GPBUSD H4.GIF Size: 54 KB
  • #2,348
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:59am Jun 11, 2009 11:59am
Maybe smb has USD/CHF H1 and H4 charts ?
thanks
  • #2,349
  • Jun 11, 2009 12:08pm Jun 11, 2009 12:08pm
Trunkcated 5th on 1min. chart for that wave c of 4 on the 15 min. chart.

Looks like wave 5 on the 15 min. chart should take up into the 1.6613-1.6632 area.

Sara,

You may be correct in that we are in the 5th wave on the 4H chart. That is one possible count also.

Sorry, don't trade the USD/CHF.
  • #2,350
  • Jun 11, 2009 12:36pm Jun 11, 2009 12:36pm
my gu 4tf chart..happy trading
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  • #2,351
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:14pm Jun 11, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting ShanFX
my gu 4tf chart..happy trading
Nice count.
  • #2,352
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:47pm Jun 11, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting sarasxxx
Hey, according to my count we are currently in wave 5 on 4H chart and I consider that wave 4 is finished and that is basing on the "principle of alternation" - wave 2 was long in time and an irregular so wave 4 has to be short in time and simple. So thats why it doesnt matter if 6670 is broken. An anyway according to my H1 chart around that price I will go short since there is my 5th wave and with that we will have the 1st wave of bigger degree wave 5 completed. I hope I helped
Thanks sarasxxx, there's great. It confirms my own count. You mentioned that you will be looking to short at around 6670. This must therefore be where you think wave 5 will end. The question I have is then, can wave 5 of wave C be below 6670, ie a truncated 5th? Is there any argument for that?

And why do you target 6670? According to my chart, the upper trend line (drawn from 2.01 to recent high of 1.6667 is contained at 1.66.

Because I'm not sure of the truncated 5th element, I've been setting wave 5 to end at 1.68 (50% fib).

Apologies for all the questions. I'm learning EW via reading books and all your posts in the forum which are fantastic. Thanks for your help.
  • #2,353
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:24pm Jun 11, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting 4cfx
Thanks sarasxxx, there's great. It confirms my own count. You mentioned that you will be looking to short at around 6670. This must therefore be where you think wave 5 will end. The question I have is then, can wave 5 of wave C be below 6670, ie a truncated 5th? Is there any argument for that?

And why do you target 6670? According to my chart, the upper trend line (drawn from 2.01 to recent high of 1.6667 is contained at 1.66.

Because I'm not sure of the truncated 5th element, I've been setting wave 5 to end at 1.68 (50% fib).

Apologies for...
As i mentioned short at 6670 before yes I thought of it as an end of wave 5 only by Fib relationships. Now after some bars and new patterns I think the Place for Short (and Wave 5 end) will be around 1.6800 (which is also a 0.382 Fib target on my 4h chart )according to my recent fantasies on 10Min chart I put some arrows hope you'll understand
Your trendline is not very strong because you added it to wave 3 and not 5. Try redrawing it from 2.115 to 2.01 this will be resistance for the further future
About the truncated 5 - now its should not happen, but the general arguments I use are:
wave 2 retraced less than 50%;
wave 3 is extended at least 2.618*wave1;
wave 4 retraced 50%.
I am also still learning so verify what I say before you go with real money
and where did you get the wave C ?:/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GPBUSD 10Min.GIF Size: 47 KB
  • #2,354
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:17pm Jun 11, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting sarasxxx
As i mentioned short at 6670 before yes I thought of it as an end of wave 5 only by Fib relationships. and where did you get the wave C ?:/
Hi sara, thanks. I can see it and it makes me feel a lot more comfortable with the count.

wave C - sorry I meant wave 4 of the decline from 2.11. As per my daily count, we are currently in wave 5 of the last of that wave 4 correction from 1.35.
  • #2,355
  • Edited 5:56pm Jun 11, 2009 5:30pm | Edited 5:56pm
Hello everyone,

I've applied conventional TA for about 10 years and started to study Elliott wave 6 months ago. Nice to find this forum here.

For the USDCAD daily chart, I wonder which are the reasonable spots to label wave-3 and wave-5 for its recent down trend (note that there is an overlap wave after wave-2 on the chart).

Would love to learn how you label this daily chart.

Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 2009-06-11 daily.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #2,356
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:01pm Jun 11, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting ridingwaves2
Hello everyone,

I've applied conventional TA for about 10 years and started to study Elliott wave 6 months ago. Nice to find this forum here.

For the USDCAD daily chart, I wonder which are the reasonable spots to label wave-3 and wave-5 for its recent down trend (note that there is an overlap wave after wave-2 on the chart).

Would love to learn how you label this daily chart. ...
Hey RW2,

This is how I have labeled the Daily chart. Notice how wave 2 was a flat style correction, so I am expecting wave 4 to be either a zigzag or a triangle. This would fulfill the guideline of alternation (alternating corrective wave structures) That being said, it is entirely possible that wave 4 is complete, as it has fulfilled the minimum retracement requirements, having retraced 23.6% of wave 2-3. Hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,357
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:07pm Jun 11, 2009 10:07pm
Hi Pipeye, Thanks for your chart and comments. Obviously, your count is more reasonable and I like it. I also suspect wave-5 is still ahead, let's see what the market says next.
  • #2,358
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:30am Jun 12, 2009 12:30am
Quoting 4cfx
Hi sara, thanks. I can see it and it makes me feel a lot more comfortable with the count.

wave C - sorry I meant wave 4 of the decline from 2.11. As per my daily count, we are currently in wave 5 of the last of that wave 4 correction from 1.35.
Nevermind and please add an"s" to my name since I am "saras" and not "sara" p
  • #2,359
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:46am Jun 12, 2009 12:46am
Good morning Saras,

I'm looking at either a 4th wave down on the 1H chart that is almost complete, or I'm looking at an A wave on the 4H. Either way we should see price action come up soon.

If we're moving into a 4th wave on the 4H chart, we should see price get down into the 1.6300-1.6200 area.
  • #2,360
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:51am Jun 12, 2009 12:51am
my eu chart..
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