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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,681
  • Apr 23, 2007 1:37am Apr 23, 2007 1:37am
Quoting Sami7
See you decided to give trading this pair a shot - even if it may only be for the gap scalp.
Yea, but not this kind of shot (gap scalp) that I wanted lol. Next trade will be a wave trade, let's see.
Tbh, this weekly gap scalping works really well for past few months, 100% success rate.
Tra-X
  • #3,682
  • Apr 23, 2007 1:55am Apr 23, 2007 1:55am
Quoting Traex
Yea, but not this kind of shot (gap scalp) that I wanted lol. Next trade will be a wave trade, let's see.
Tbh, this weekly gap scalping works really well for past few months, 100% success rate.
Do you see a bounce off of say, 236.20 or further movement down?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,683
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:12am Apr 23, 2007 2:12am
Quoting Sami7
Do you see a bounce off of say, 236.20 or further movement down?
Up to above 238 first then fall for good? Only a possible scenario.
Tra-X
  • #3,684
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:16am Apr 23, 2007 2:16am
Quoting Traex
Up to above 238 first then fall for good? Only a possible scenario.
Actually that sounds about what I was thinking. Another retracement or reversal or whatever it is at this point (I've lost track), then down.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,685
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:16am Apr 23, 2007 2:16am
Quoting Traex
Up to above 238 first then fall for good? Only a possible scenario.
Up to above 238 from where? 236.20?
  • #3,686
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:22am Apr 23, 2007 2:22am
Quoting wshhmm
Ded,

would you please tell me what is the parmameters of those MAs?

Look´s very fishy to me.....Guppys perhaps?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,687
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:24am Apr 23, 2007 2:24am
Quoting trader8686
Up to above 238 from where? 236.20?
Now it might already be on its way up. Or it'd make 1 final mini rally down then bounce.
Tra-X
  • #3,688
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:34am Apr 23, 2007 2:34am
Quoting Traex
Now it might already be on its way up. Or it'd make 1 final mini rally down then bounce.
You're right buddy up up in away once again 236.20 is hard to crack!
  • #3,689
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:53am Apr 23, 2007 2:53am
Might allso givesome zikzak tenstion breaking on 236.30/60 sector before the bounce.
  • #3,690
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:57am Apr 23, 2007 2:57am
Quoting Traex
Now it might already be on its way up. Or it'd make 1 final mini rally down then bounce.

Traex, would really appreciate if you share your views on the daily candles wave analysis.

regards
jest
  • #3,691
  • Apr 23, 2007 3:30am Apr 23, 2007 3:30am
Quoting jest1081
Traex, would really appreciate if you share your views on the daily candles wave analysis.

regards
jest
Hi jest, here's my daily wave count chart. We might be at wave C down now, altho this wave can be cut short because it happened before. Strong longterm uptrend. Wouldn't be a surprise if it'd stop around 231-232 area (just below 23.6 fib) then resume longterm uptrend (carry trades).
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #3,692
  • Apr 23, 2007 3:56am Apr 23, 2007 3:56am
Quoting Traex
Hi jest, here's my daily wave count chart. We might be at wave C down now, altho this wave can be cut short because it happened before. Strong longterm uptrend. Wouldn't be a surprise if it'd stop around 231-232 area (just below 23.6 fib) then resume longterm uptrend (carry trades).
Nice chart Traex but the chance of 231-232 is slim to none as of this moment but a probable right after the market hit 240-242 just my 2 cents.....
  • #3,693
  • Apr 23, 2007 3:59am Apr 23, 2007 3:59am
Quoting 4x_Trader
Nice chart Traex but the chance of 231-232 is slim to none as of this moment but a probable right after the market hit 240-242 just my 2 cents.....
And why is that so?
  • #3,694
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:02am Apr 23, 2007 4:02am
Quoting jest1081
And why is that so?
Technical and fundamental factors are favoring the carry trades my friend!
  • #3,695
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:03am Apr 23, 2007 4:03am
Shanghai up 3.53%

Yen is dying...
  • #3,696
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:07am Apr 23, 2007 4:07am
hehe tecnically we can dispute forever since we are already testing multi year highs the bounce off it was pretty strong. Fundamentally, what makes you think the british economy is not overheating, further appreciation can probably hurt the pound more than we can imagine....hehe.

Abt carry trades, technically i see slow and steay dumping being done here, not much buying seen everytime price reaches 238, more likely the holders are trying to catch the small fries by dangling prices imho. I see alot of hedging being done just so that prices could be dumped on a higher vol... 2pips

Lets discuss..!
  • #3,697
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:08am Apr 23, 2007 4:08am
Quoting im7i4z
Shanghai up 3.53%

Yen is dying...
aside from that here is another one from IFR Forex Watch:

[09:04 FX OPTIONS: GBP/USD May MPC Rate Verdict 2.04 Strike] London, April 23. We are hearing reports that a 2.0400 GBP call option traded for a May 10 expiry date at 7.05 pct late last week. The BoE MPC is expected to up the UK base rate by another 25bp to 5.5% on May 10. There is more risk of a 50bp hike to 5.75% than no change. On the exotic front: barriers are tipped at 2.0150, 2.0175, 2.0200, 2.0250, 2.0300, 2.0450 and 2.0500+. A 1.9050-2.0450 Double No Touch option, carrying an estimated GBP 3mn payout, is slated to expire this Thursday. 2.0134 was last Wednesday"s 26-year high.
  • #3,698
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:16am Apr 23, 2007 4:16am
also 5.5 is already expected...so i believe that would have been priced in already. You might see a euro repeat...surprise would be BOE raising it by 0.5 compared to the expected 0.25. Comments pls. Cesarnc, your expert fundamental views are much appreciated as well.
  • #3,699
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:19am Apr 23, 2007 4:19am
Quoting wshhmm
Ded,

would you please tell me what is the parmameters of those MAs?
Standard GMMA, if I recall = 3,5,7,9,11,13,15 , 30,35,40,45,50,55,60. Sorry for the delay in answering, was asleep.
  • #3,700
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:21am Apr 23, 2007 4:21am
Quoting 4x_Trader
[09:04 FX OPTIONS: GBP/USD May MPC Rate Verdict 2.04 Strike] London, April 23. We are hearing reports that a 2.0400 GBP call option traded for a May 10 expiry date at 7.05 pct late last week.
I usually read this kind of comment, but I don't understand it... Anyone?
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