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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,181
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:25am Jun 11, 2009 4:25am
Sorry to hear that some of you are not feeling well...fti I hope you are well soon. Taking one minute to chat after a quick GBP trade. Noticed the comment from fti about holding positions open for extended periods. I suggest taking fti's lead on this point and staying with trades until you are done with them. I only leave positions unattended when I am more than happy with them, and have closed out a significant portion to capture profits. I will put in a trailing stop to protect the remainder of the trade and see what happens. However, I will no longer discuss this portion of my trading here since doing so it out of sync with the host. I hope my explaination makes sense and fti, sorry about talking about this topic in an earlier post.

Hey auxesis, can you figure out what the EUR is up to? I was about to join you in south, but have just paused. I may just put on my range trading hat and jump in.

BAck to work and no more chatty for a while.
  • #7,182
  • Edited 4:59am Jun 11, 2009 4:45am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting fti
So since no one answered, I ass u me that you don't know.

Many traders get caught, this way.

Here goes.

How to boil a frog live.
------------------------

Put frog in pot of cool water.
On the gas on small fire.
Turn on the heat SLOWLY, while allowing frog to accustom to new temperature.
By the 10 th increment of heating, the frog should be cooked, without a struggle.

make sense?

regards
Confession time...the above just happened to me...no i am not even a frog...I was a bloody TOAD !!



Regards

Good and green pips everybody
Attached Image
  • #7,183
  • Jun 11, 2009 5:34am Jun 11, 2009 5:34am
Hi, FTI:

What is opinion on USD? Bullish or bearish? The 5M E/U chart makes me confused.

Regards.
  • #7,184
  • Jun 11, 2009 6:19am Jun 11, 2009 6:19am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI:

What is opinion on USD? Bullish or bearish? The 5M E/U chart makes me confused.

Regards.
If look at Daily bars it is to hold much caution very much in consolidation
may be after US unemployment claims will give direction.

My view.
  • #7,185
  • Jun 11, 2009 6:52am Jun 11, 2009 6:52am
Greetings all,

Euro's all wedged up, and big figures coming out in about 30mins......

Fti, get well!
  • #7,186
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:09am Jun 11, 2009 7:09am
The $ pokes it's head out below, bu early..... careful everyone.
  • #7,187
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:03am Jun 11, 2009 8:03am
Battlestations, she about to show her hand.
  • #7,188
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:50am Jun 11, 2009 8:50am
Quoting Green_David


David, did you understand fti's point about your contradiction?
  • #7,189
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:55am Jun 11, 2009 8:55am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI:

What is opinion on USD? Bullish or bearish? The 5M E/U chart makes me confused.

Regards.
Hi All,
Just reach home.
Wasn't feeling well, so I took the train down to shenton way for a walk about.
Visited some brokers as well. Was nearly productive.

@ David,
My bias is bullish USD, but that move always loses money.
The bear USD side is supporting the wasting habit.

I would much rather dance the tempo. Best have no bias in a congestion. Unhealthy mindset.

regards
  • #7,190
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:04am Jun 11, 2009 9:04am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Just reach home.
Wasn't feeling well, so I took the train down to shenton way for a walk about.
Visited some brokers as well. Was nearly productive.

regards
Hi, fti...do take care...temperature's going through the roof and our annual haze season is coming back....

Go shenton for some 人气 is it ? I can imagine being the person behind the desk of the broker you visited.

Good health to you....
  • #7,191
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:09am Jun 11, 2009 9:09am
Quoting Zoran
David, did you understand fti's point about your contradiction?

Don't know. Perhaps you could enlighten me?
  • #7,192
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:10am Jun 11, 2009 9:10am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Just reach home.
Wasn't feeling well, so I took the train down to shenton way for a walk about.
Visited some brokers as well. Was nearly productive.

@ David,
My bias is bullish USD, but that move always loses money.
The bear USD side is supporting the wasting habit.

I would much rather dance the tempo. Best have no bias in a congestion. Unhealthy mindset.

regards
Thanks.
  • #7,193
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:20am Jun 11, 2009 9:20am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hi, fti...do take care...temperature's going through the roof and our annual haze season is coming back....

Go shenton for some 人气 is it ? I can imagine being the person behind the desk of the broker you visited.

Good health to you....
aiyahmarklah, yeah always give them a hard time, explaining to me their shortcomings, due to that its retail. I always forget that I am no longer dealing a few hundred million , and expecting the same level of broker indulgence. Sure hope the industry will mature to absolutely professional levels soon, hopefully in my lifetime.

They keep telling me about their problems and I keep telling them that unless they can, my bigger money will never reach them. The chicken & the egg problem.

Come think of it I have two computers locked to two different brokers online, but still the phone does more business than both put together by leaps. Until they can address their credit goodwill and mobiity of funding, the bigger business will never happen. The balls in their court. May have another computer up soon though. The new chap , he's talking about less tha 1 pip spreads, thatwill be interesting.


regards
  • #7,194
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:33am Jun 11, 2009 9:33am
Quoting fti
aiyahmarklah, yeah always give them a hard time, explaining to me their shortcomings, due to that its retail. I always forget that I am no longer dealing a few hundred million , and expecting the same level of broker indulgence. Sure hope the industry will mature to absolutely professional levels soon, hopefully in my lifetime.

regards
sir , u might wanna try futures , at least they have transparency...
doubt if retail will ever mature...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,195
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:37am Jun 11, 2009 9:37am
Quoting fti
aiyahmarklah, yeah always give them a hard time, explaining to me their shortcomings, due to that its retail. I always forget that I am no longer dealing a few hundred million , and expecting the same level of broker indulgence. Sure hope the industry will mature to absolutely professional levels soon, hopefully in my lifetime.

They keep telling me about their problems and I keep telling them that unless they can, my bigger money will never reach them. The chicken & the egg problem.

Come think of it I have two computers locked to two...
Hiaz tell me how please ex dealer ? Somemore the old school type ?

Have you spoke to banks ? I surveyed some, mostly the big locals ones, all don't qualify(I don't qualify, not the bank). Talking to Rabobank now, but telephone call in...., thought they have a currenex platform....

Despite your background, fti, you are not spared the pains to retail forex huh ? hehehehehe
  • #7,196
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:37am Jun 11, 2009 9:37am
We've been talking about the E/U trend for several days now, and i must say that my buy trades far outperform my sell trades, but that may be because of my own mindset. I am in the E/U and the G/U, among others. fti, hope you are feeling better and enjoyed your time away.

Again, fti, thanks for this thread it is a great place at times like this, when I need to step away for a moment and collect my thoughts and get control of my greed. May be time to cut these guys off and bank the profits rather than keep pushing.

Back to the charts.
  • #7,197
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:43am Jun 11, 2009 9:43am
Quoting maheswara
sir , u might wanna try futures , at least they have transparency...
doubt if retail will ever mature...
Hi maheswara,
futures have even more obstacles,
namely, liquidity, spreads due to bro, time zoning liquidity.......+some others which I not nice to disclose.

OTC will mature, but customers have to mature and demand, then it will happen. Some stuff that was not available in otc has already happened. For example , prices pumped to you. Thats new, if you trade OTC interbank you will have to ask banks for price to deal, no one will pump prices to wait to be hit. So count you blessings, give time it will mature, how long before it happens, well thats the question. So to be pumped prices for retail sizes, was unthinkable a decade ago.

regards
  • #7,198
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:56am Jun 11, 2009 9:56am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hiaz tell me how please ex dealer ? Somemore the old school type ?

Have you spoke to banks ? I surveyed some, mostly the big locals ones, all don't qualify(I don't qualify, not the bank). Talking to Rabobank now, but telephone call in...., thought they have a currenex platform....

Despite your background, fti, you are not spared the pains to retail forex huh ? hehehehehe
aiyahmarklah, yeah seems so.

Actually I got funny feeling, that its not that you are not qualified. Probably because the rooms are not looking into giving away their monopoly of the otc structure.

I am lucky that no one has bumped me with"well why didn't you implement this when you were calling the shots?" To be absolutely honest, then, we were only after killing bank counterparties. Corporate desk were killing corporate suckers , imagine for 5 to 10 million usd tickets, they were quoted 15pips spreads. Now you are quoted 2 pips for non marketables, was impossible. But here we are.

Be patient, when the bank customers wise up and begin to use retail broking, then they will start thinking. Takes some time for them to feel the pain and react.

Moreover the authorities are not supporting the infant retail otc structure yet. It may be a wildcard and they cannot afford support something , baring that something goes wrong.(Structural meltdown risk)

regards
  • #7,199
  • Jun 11, 2009 9:56am Jun 11, 2009 9:56am
Quoting Green_David
Don't know. Perhaps you could enlighten me?
Why are you holding overnight positions and thanking fti for his teachings about nimbleness?
  • #7,200
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:09am Jun 11, 2009 10:09am
Squared on all postitions, and will take time off now. I think my posts are more of an intrusion than a participation, so will try to be much less chatty here and look around FF. I hope Zoran's post is not an early sign of a family arguement. Deep breath and fresh cup of coffee time.
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