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Silent Service Method

  • #1,901
  • Jun 10, 2009 6:41am Jun 10, 2009 6:41am
Quoting hel13rock
Whitegoodman, Just looked through your journal and your stats. You seem to have some very large losses and a huge succession of small wins. Also I notice you jump around between the time frames loads.

Would it be worth just sticking to the advice on this thread and seeing how it goes? This is not a personal criticism, at the end of the day you trade how you want to trade. It's just that my account looked something like yours at one stage but doesn't anymore, enough said...
haha this account has been there since the start of the beginner, "martingale" phase... i only use that 'strategy' for comps... and as you can see it hasnt gone well...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,902
  • Jun 10, 2009 8:45am Jun 10, 2009 8:45am
patience,patience,patience...i didn't take any trade last week only closed my nzdusd trade with some profit..
As you know patience is the key..not only for forex for everything in life..success follows patience whereever it goes and whomever has it..
So many of pairs setting up nicely for those who have been waiting with patient...
  • #1,903
  • Jun 10, 2009 9:08am Jun 10, 2009 9:08am
One of the good looking setups..Usdcad
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  • #1,904
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:00am Jun 10, 2009 10:00am
You may recall that several of us took the GBP/CHF breakout last week off an inside bar that looked like a pinbar... It broke higher before eventually failing.

We got a pinbar again on Friday signalling a long trade. I didn't take it, but it would have turned out quite nicely. I was more concerned about the weekly at the time, which was directing me towards down...I'm happy I didn't take the trade for that reason. But I hope it comes back to let us jump in on a retrace.

First things first though... need to see if we break through last weeks' high.

Josh
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  • #1,905
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:54am Jun 10, 2009 10:54am
This pair is in such a strong downtrend at the moment I'd be very wary of calling the reverse. I'd rather let it go, show me a new trend and then buy it on the retrace then contemplate it now.

Anybody long GbpUsd? Messing about a bit today which is why I don't like to watch it too much during the day. After all, it's the daily close that is the important bit, right?
  • #1,906
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:57am Jun 10, 2009 10:57am
Quoting whitegoodman
haha this account has been there since the start of the beginner, "martingale" phase... i only use that 'strategy' for comps... and as you can see it hasnt gone well...
Lol! Glad to hear it's not your main account then. That stat thing is interesting. Not that I'm that keen to publish my trades/results just yet!
  • #1,907
  • Jun 10, 2009 4:41pm Jun 10, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting hel13rock
This pair is in such a strong downtrend at the moment I'd be very wary of calling the reverse. I'd rather let it go, show me a new trend and then buy it on the retrace then contemplate it now.

Anybody long GbpUsd? Messing about a bit today which is why I don't like to watch it too much during the day. After all, it's the daily close that is the important bit, right?
I bailed on my G/U long...got out around +300 pips

I think it will still go up some but I wanted to get out + some pips to show myself I can win! Next time, I probably won't bail early.

My thoughts on USD/CAD is if it goes to 1.08 area again and rejects with some nice PA, I will enter long anticipating a reversal and ride it out until PA tells me otherwise.
  • #1,908
  • Jun 10, 2009 4:53pm Jun 10, 2009 4:53pm
Why try to anticipate a reversal? Why not wait until it shows you that it has reversed and then take some profit from the following uptrend?

GbpUsd very nearly retraced back to your stop loss anyway today but you would still be in the trade and it's on the way back up

By the way, yesterday I said I was looking for 1.75. D'oh, of course the next major resistance is at 1.70. I've got a take profit there but still at BE. Holding my nerve for a break of 1.65. If it doesn't break through tomorrow or Friday I'll be moving my stop loss up to roughly where yours was today.

Read CW's post on the previous page, sometimes hanging on to a trade when you're winning is hard to do but I've had enough nice big winners with this method already and there'll be more so if I give some up on this one I'm not bothered.
  • #1,909
  • Jun 10, 2009 6:06pm Jun 10, 2009 6:06pm
Something that I noticed today.....

My UNG trade is still sitting there. I heard tomorrow is some kind of Nat. Gas report. I am betting that it will finally move. I THINK I know which way, but oddly enough, the market is expecting "bearish numbers". Could it be that I am wrong? Could it be that all the suckers are lining up to short, when tomorrow they are going to get hurt? Should I just get out now, and save the larger loss?

These are the questions that used to torture me the night before a report if I was in a trade. My strategy for tomorrow? Go to work, see where everything is when I get home.

I have stops in place after all. That's what they are for.

CW
  • #1,910
  • Jun 10, 2009 6:13pm Jun 10, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting hel13rock
Why try to anticipate a reversal? Why not wait until it shows you that it has reversed and then take some profit from the following uptrend?

GbpUsd very nearly retraced back to your stop loss anyway today but you would still be in the trade and it's on the way back up

By the way, yesterday I said I was looking for 1.75. D'oh, of course the next major resistance is at 1.70. I've got a take profit there but still at BE. Holding my nerve for a break of 1.65. If it doesn't break through tomorrow or Friday I'll be moving my stop loss up to roughly...
Well, if USD/CAD gets to 1.08 and rejects with some good PA, I am going to go long and maybe I will catch the trend reversal...if not, I will still be playing it the same and be looking to get out or move stops up at the next resistance level.

I even knew I should stay in this trade when I closed it, but I decided since this was my 2nd successful trade using the method, I didn't want to risk it turning into a loser and messing with my brain! Next trade, I will definitely let it run since now I know and have seen that winning is possible.

As for G/U, I really don't see much S/R directly at 1.70. My zones are at 6800 - 6650 and 7600 - 7450. However, I know 1.70 is a nice big round number so I will be sure to note PA around that area in case I see a trade I want to get in.

I like this EUR/JPY daily PB that is forming...

http://i39.tinypic.com/33e4znt.gif
  • #1,911
  • Jun 10, 2009 6:24pm Jun 10, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting clockwork71
Something that I noticed today.....

My UNG trade is still sitting there. I heard tomorrow is some kind of Nat. Gas report. I am betting that it will finally move. I THINK I know which way, but oddly enough, the market is expecting "bearish numbers". Could it be that I am wrong? Could it be that all the suckers are lining up to short, when tomorrow they are going to get hurt? Should I just get out now, and save the larger loss?

These are the questions that used to torture me the night before a report if I was in a trade. My strategy for tomorrow?...
Hello Chris,
I just have to ask are people just that naive to PA?It seems simple,but some people cannot see it I guess?
  • #1,912
  • Jun 10, 2009 7:44pm Jun 10, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting jlmac27
Hello Chris,
I just have to ask are people just that naive to PA?It seems simple,but some people cannot see it I guess?
Truth be known......Technical Analysis in general is laughed at by most traders on Wall Street. You hear "fundamentals", etc....

The truth is this: If they are all buying, then don't sell. Go WITH the flow, period.....
  • #1,913
  • Jun 10, 2009 8:03pm Jun 10, 2009 8:03pm
Did another babble-piece on the blog today about time.

CW
  • #1,914
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:20pm Jun 10, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting clockwork71
Did another babble-piece on the blog today about time.

CW
nice talk!
keep 'em coming
  • #1,915
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:45pm Jun 10, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
Did another babble-piece on the blog today about time.

CW
Haha, love it. I did quite a bit of studying throughout the years and this concept came up a good few times in ethics/science/religion classes (graduated 2 Jesuit schools) and it's really an interesting thing to think about. As for myself, some of it makes sense, but still lot to think about there.

Anyways, sadly I havn't been around much so my trading activity and analysis time have decreased significantly. I started a new internship with securities valuation and still working weekends full time so I don't have a great deal of time left. Good to see you guys are still going strong here, hope to rejoin full force towards the end of the summer.
  • #1,916
  • Jun 10, 2009 11:02pm Jun 10, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting nebuman213
As for G/U, I really don't see much S/R directly at 1.70. My zones are at 6800 - 6650 and 7600 - 7450.

I have the exact same zones... except its goes to 6850
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,917
  • Jun 10, 2009 11:17pm Jun 10, 2009 11:17pm
Quoting hel13rock
Lol! Glad to hear it's not your main account then. That stat thing is interesting. Not that I'm that keen to publish my trades/results just yet!
oh its my main account sort of... ive got money on the sidelines, looking to prove to myself im ready before i put more in slowly (key account numbers, 5k 10k etc)... so yes its not good so far but i havent busted an account and I feel everyday that im getting better and better so this thread has been the breakthrough

my main account really is my folks account where i get a 50% cut... however thats CFD's
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,918
  • Jun 10, 2009 11:49pm Jun 10, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting whitegoodman
oh its my main account sort of... ive got money on the sidelines, looking to prove to myself im ready before i put more in slowly (key account numbers, 5k 10k etc)... so yes its not good so far but i havent busted an account and I feel everyday that im getting better and better so this thread has been the breakthrough

my main account really is my folks account where i get a 50% cut... however thats CFD's
That's why I funded my first account with £200. I've actually had to top it up a few times but working at this volume and gradually increasing it seems sensible to me.

Good to see you're on the right track anyway
  • #1,919
  • Jun 11, 2009 12:02am Jun 11, 2009 12:02am
Quoting nebuman213
As for G/U, I really don't see much S/R directly at 1.70. My zones are at 6800 - 6650 and 7600 - 7450. However, I know 1.70 is a nice big round number so I will be sure to note PA around that area in case I see a trade I want to get in.

I like this EUR/JPY daily PB that is forming...
Zoom your weekly chart out as far as you can, I can see one HELLUVA lot of PA at the 1.7 level. Read the first page of this thread again!

True, I don't work with zones and only concentrate on round numbers but with GbpUsd I can only see significant PA on the weekly chart at 1.4/1.45/1.5/1.55/1.6/1.65/1.7/1.75 and so on. Just look at where it has found s/r over the last few weeks on the daily chart.

As for EurJpy, would you want to buy or sell that? It's just above 1.37 today which is a major level. It's in a strong uptrend. For me it's too messy. I'm not sure how one pinbar could persuade you to want to go one way or another? I don't think every pinbar tells you strongly enough which way to go. There is a minor level at 1.34 which would be an area of interest for a retrace back to, if it broke below that and then broke 1.31 we're looking at a trend reversal.

Oddly enough though I'm short UsdJpy and short the Eur against a few other pairs so wouldn't be surprised to see this reverse. I just don't get the same information you seem to be getting from that chart.

This is just my opinion and I'm just trying to help rather than criticise
  • #1,920
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:22am Jun 11, 2009 1:22am
Hi Chris,

Just listened to your latest three blogs. I have to say that with respect to losses i begrudgingly admit that i listen to the inner child. I was overleveraged on a recent loss, and have not traded since.
I had accepted the risk and mentally deducted the amount from my account balance before i took the trade. I took the loss, but because the dollar amount amount was one of my largest trades in recent times, I have an 'almost ready to pack it all in' attitude. i just thought this trade HAD to work out. did i really accept the loss? maybe, maybe not, but i was fully aware of the upside potential that never materialized.

As you say, the market does not care for time, or how much you stood to gain or lose, it does what it does and we have to accept that and adapt.

The market does not care where you buy or sell, or if you buy or sell. by entering a trade you have no influence (as a retail trader) on future price action. so time does not exist, nor do any other contrary elements exist (e.g. 'you are on a hot streak that is sure to end so you are reluctant to take that next trade' or' you are on a losing streak' and a big win is just around the corner so 'double up on the next trade' to recover past losses and then some). we simply commit ourselves to one side of a trade. sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. we just have to believe that we have a predefined edge that will put this balance in our favor over time. sometimes we are ahead, sometimes we are behind, and in the end as you say the journey is a long one - so no need to overleverage. more chances will come and go in the future. we just have to make sure we have the equity to capitalize on those advantages that appear on our charts, and realize that there are NO certainties and that the market has no memory, vendetta, consideration for us as individual traders. It merely invites us along for the ride, if we are wise enough to have the longevity to remain in the game we may one day reach that what we strive to attain.


as a short aside, i write poetry occasionally and read a piece i wrote almost six years ago, long before i discovered trading. Here are the opening lines:

I seek but not to find, for it is in finding that we truly lose,
Is not the exhilaration of the hunt infinitely more gratifying than the taste of capture?
The lure of the unknown will always outweigh the process of reason....


Maybe I have always been a closet adrenalin junkie and trading is filling that void. I hope not. I hate roller coasters, but risking and hundreds or thousands of dollars at a click of the mouse - no problem.

Listening to your blog and how much thought you put into trades, and to the relevance and irrelevance of time as the circumnavigation of the earth around the sun, demonstrates how many successful people in all endeavors of life are successful simply because they never stop thinking and asking questions. The average Joe does not challenge himself nor question things as you do. Those who succeed - think, those who do not, don't. the people in between, think a lot, but overleverage themselves and crash and burn.

Indeed, jesse livermore's comment below sums up what i have tried to say over many paragraphs - it's just that it only took him a single sentence.
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