Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 357 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,121
  • Jun 9, 2009 8:08am Jun 9, 2009 8:08am
Quoting GEfx
One question for those who are looking for dollar strength. My trend on the EUR/USD is down, with a retracement on my 4H which shows as an up move on the 1H (same for the GBP/USD, etc). Is your bias based on the 1H trend? For me, until the Day chart reverses, I assume the trend is up, but will trade down for small (30-50 pips) chunks while the market is trying to decide its direction. Under current circumstances, I trade south light, and north heavy, and will continue until real money returns to the market to settle the dispute on direction. Would...
just how i see it,

gotta run great day everyone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #7,122
  • Jun 9, 2009 8:12am Jun 9, 2009 8:12am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Very tired.
Rode both sides of the hill.
Book is back on profits.

mistakes noted.

1.had been too eager to get back into the market, therefore there was an emotional unbalance.

2. tried to ride a trend bia emotionally, in a congestion. This is basically the mistake, compounded by the emotional hurrying. Getting too darn rigid, in thoughts, creating rigid response , so not dancing to the tune. OUT OFF rhythm dancing.

As a matter of review , David had a better market feel than me when he mistakenly went the other way when he read my posting. You see traders can get very blinded by their bias. Be very careful there, trust yourself. At least when things go wrong you know how to correct it.( or I hope you do , by now).


3. talking on the thread too much , thereby lacking focus on some hints from the dance.

4. impatience, due to unsatisfaction of P&L in $ terms , as the size was too small, and out of normal from before.

Wow much mistakes, now back on form.
and CORRECTING mistakes.

regards
Hi FTI

Perfect recapitulation and for me a good mirror.

Regards

  • #7,123
  • Jun 9, 2009 8:18am Jun 9, 2009 8:18am
Quoting fti
Hi auxesis,
like David said, seems GS is herding the sheeps our way.
Feasting call soon. Getting ready hunting equipment.

regards
Fti,

Must say it's good to see you back! Hunting equipment.....

I'd be surprised if the $ bulls dont show up soon, but trying to keep predictive eyes closed.

I found your #4 very interesting..... hit home. Need to internalize that one.

Business calls so wont be around for the kill today but wishing you and everyone a successful pip safari today!

a
  • #7,124
  • Jun 9, 2009 8:49am Jun 9, 2009 8:49am
I think it was GEfx who was looking for 1.4000. So now we are here after a roller coaster ride. Time for action. No?


regards
  • #7,125
  • Jun 9, 2009 8:52am Jun 9, 2009 8:52am
it is usd thats moving ... can see strong correlation with oil...
the other pairs are static moving along with usd...

edit:
geithner speaking
some excerpts

A group of 10 large financial institutions were given the go-ahead by the Treasury Department on Tuesday to repay $68 billion in large government stakes they received as part of the government's bank bailout program."These repayments are an encouraging sign of financial repair, but we still have work to do," said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a statement. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and eight other institutions were approved to repay billions of dollars in government money they received, in part because they have issued long-term debt. Ten other financial institutions, including Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. have a longer road to recovery. They submitted plans for raising capital to the Federal Reserve on Monday. Other smaller banks have also returned bank bailout funds, bringing the total in returns to $70 billion.
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,126
  • Jun 9, 2009 8:55am Jun 9, 2009 8:55am
Quoting fti
Hi GEfx,

Deep breath, and a freah pot of coffee.
Back on the saddle.

regards
A good cup of coffee can make any day a good day, at least until the buze wears off. LOL. Glad you are back in the saddle again, fti. Still a choppy market so I am holding on tight right now. Now, back to the charts and lets see what happen.
  • #7,127
  • Jun 9, 2009 8:55am Jun 9, 2009 8:55am
Quoting fti
I think it was GEfx who was looking for 1.4000. So now we are here after a roller coaster ride. Time for action. No?


regards
Hi, fti:

Is it now a good timing to short E/U (buy USD)?
  • #7,128
  • Jun 9, 2009 9:04am Jun 9, 2009 9:04am
Quoting fti
I think it was GEfx who was looking for 1.4000. So now we are here after a roller coaster ride. Time for action. No?


regards
LOL
  • #7,129
  • Jun 9, 2009 9:20am Jun 9, 2009 9:20am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, fti:

Is it now a good timing to short E/U (buy USD)?
noted

regards
  • #7,130
  • Jun 9, 2009 10:04am Jun 9, 2009 10:04am
ah no hope to make money easily this session, need to go bit by bit ...
london session , I was bullish when it was bearish and vice versa , ended up rescuing 3 times (maybe 4 times dont remember)
overall flat day , although small profit in hand ...

going off now , goodnite all n good luck to all who are still in their battlestations ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,131
  • Jun 9, 2009 10:19am Jun 9, 2009 10:19am
Quoting maheswara
ah no hope to make money easily this session, need to go bit by bit ...
london session , I was bullish when it was bearish and vice versa , ended up rescuing 3 times (maybe 4 times dont remember)
overall flat day , although small profit in hand ...

going off now , goodnite all n good luck to all who are still in their battlestations ...
Looks like it gonna stay at 14000 for sometime yet.
Ok, I'm exhausted. Gotta hit the sack.
Goodnite, Cu all tom.

regards
  • #7,132
  • Jun 9, 2009 10:35am Jun 9, 2009 10:35am
i was long cable....but nature called thus forced liquidation, probably not a bad idea too.

good nite fti....have a good rest
  • #7,133
  • Jun 9, 2009 10:44am Jun 9, 2009 10:44am
The Eur and Chf are continuing their respective drifts. No more discussion of price targets here so will let them go for a bit longer. Getting tired and maybe losing my edge, or just getting edgy. Break time. Have enjoyed talking with you people on this thread the last few days.
  • #7,134
  • Edited 1:22pm Jun 9, 2009 12:43pm | Edited 1:22pm
Hi all

I want to say goodbye to you some time.
I forget to address the my "other life" (a lot of trade and forget the other).


Good trading all

Regards

Attached Image
  • #7,135
  • Edited 2:38pm Jun 9, 2009 2:27pm | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting auxesis
just how i see it,

gotta run great day everyone
Hi auxesis, sorry but I still see an uptrend on your 4H with a small retracement where your question mark is located. I am not questioning you so please do not take offense to my asking, but day and 4H seem to be moving up. I will trade a retracement as much as the next trader, but I keep one eye on the real trend in case it springs back to life. There are probably many ways to define terms like trend change, retracement, and reversal.

Man, I just looked back on this thread and I am getting pretty chatty. Someone please let me know if I am becoming a bother.
  • #7,136
  • Jun 9, 2009 2:36pm Jun 9, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting fti
I think it was GEfx who was looking for 1.4000. So now we are here after a roller coaster ride. Time for action. No?


regards
Hi fti, no action on my EUR trade at 1.4000 because as you noticed, PA eventually took us on through. PA rules! I must be honest and admit to making as much money just letting it run unattended as I did while I was sitting with it this morning. I am not sure I like that! LOL. What is the old saying, "I'd rather be lucky than good"! More coffee for tonight. Maybe see you all later, but maybe time to be quiet for a while.
  • #7,137
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:54pm Jun 9, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting Gro
Hi all

I want to say goodbye to you some time.
I forget to address the my "other life" (a lot of trade and forget the other).


Good trading all

Regards

All the best Gro and come back soon.
  • #7,138
  • Jun 9, 2009 7:31pm Jun 9, 2009 7:31pm
Be we a turning south? Scouts in 4070
  • #7,139
  • Jun 9, 2009 7:39pm Jun 9, 2009 7:39pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi auxesis, sorry but I still see an uptrend on your 4H with a small retracement where your question mark is located. I am not questioning you so please do not take offense to my asking, but day and 4H seem to be moving up. I will trade a retracement as much as the next trader, but I keep one eye on the real trend in case it springs back to life. There are probably many ways to define terms like trend change, retracement, and reversal.

Man, I just looked back on this thread and I am getting pretty chatty. Someone please let me know if I am becoming...

GEFx,

No need to apologize, everyone has to trade them as they see fit, only you are responsible for your trades. The current low on the 240min is deep in comparison to the prior low. Does that spell anything? dont know? but it says to me either range sitting up between the low and prior high or a correction is possible. Correction not necessarily trend reversal, but the current direction seems south to me for the moment.

Let's make some money!

a
  • #7,140
  • Jun 9, 2009 7:45pm Jun 9, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting Gro
Hi all

I want to say goodbye to you some time.
I forget to address the my "other life" (a lot of trade and forget the other).


Good trading all

Regards

Gro,

Trading should be no higher than #3 on priority list, actually much lower.

Take care and see you again.

a
21 traders viewing now