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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,021
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:08am Jun 8, 2009 9:08am
Quoting drucarman
I normally agree with you, it's just that sometimes EUR/GBP goes all crazy and moves the market quite a bit. It's not often but it happens. Maybe because I trade mostly during European session.
kind of like now...
  • #7,022
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:15am Jun 8, 2009 9:15am
logically eur/gbp would move only if the pair euro and gbp are not in sync...
y trade something that has so many variables ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,023
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:15am Jun 8, 2009 9:15am
Quoting drucarman
kind of like now...
Hi drucarman,
The market isn't moving yet.
Its just market makers leaning from one to another to sweep.
They are hedging for capital , in efffects this does nothing to their exposure, except to leverage sweeps.

aka artifical sweeping.

regards

infact, my feeling is that the expectation is some strong USD buying may surface soon, and they are sweeping to shake out weak holders. notice how the sweeped the 80/90 eur levels before falling back?
  • #7,024
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:21am Jun 8, 2009 9:21am
Quoting fti
Hi drucarman,
The market isn't moving yet.
Its just market makers leaning from one to another to sweep.
They are hedging for capital , in efffects this does nothing to their exposure, except to leverage sweeps.

aka artifical sweeping.

regards

infact, my feeling is that the expectation is some strong USD buying may surface soon, and they are sweeping to shake out weak holders. notice how the sweeped the 80/90 eur levels before falling back?
sir , how does artificial sweeping work ?
u mean they dont profit from such activities ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,025
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:21am Jun 8, 2009 9:21am
Hi all

Be aware of possible weakening of euro due to this:


LONDON (Standard & Poor's) June 8, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said it had lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the
Republic of Ireland to 'AA' from 'AA+'. The outlook is negative. At the same
time, Standard & Poor's has affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the
Republic.

Stay nimble!

regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #7,026
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:23am Jun 8, 2009 9:23am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi all

Be aware of possible weakening of euro due to this:


LONDON (Standard & Poor's) June 8, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said it had lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the
Republic of Ireland to 'AA' from 'AA+'. The outlook is negative. At the same
time, Standard & Poor's has affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the
Republic.

Stay nimble!

regards
F***ED
  • #7,027
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:27am Jun 8, 2009 9:27am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi all

Be aware of possible weakening of euro due to this:


LONDON (Standard & Poor's) June 8, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said it had lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the
Republic of Ireland to 'AA' from 'AA+'. The outlook is negative. At the same
time, Standard & Poor's has affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the
Republic.

Stay nimble!

regards
Hi DutchAngel,
Thanks for the info.
I see whats happening now.
Seems market makers in London and Europe are SHORT of USD or will be soon. They need to buy them back cheap. So will the bottom fall out of the cable? and Euro as well.

Thanks Dutchangel, was this hot off the oven?

regards
  • #7,028
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:28am Jun 8, 2009 9:28am
Quoting maheswara
sir , how does artificial sweeping work ?
u mean they dont profit from such activities ?
this one later.
Pls ask again.

regards
  • #7,029
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:33am Jun 8, 2009 9:33am
Quoting fti
this one later.
Pls ask again.

regards
done,
market is rather hot now ,
im squared with a lil loss , will ask u again later sir ,
goodluck
mostly done for the day
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,030
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:34am Jun 8, 2009 9:34am
Quoting fti
Hi indianguyinny24,
A profit 's a Profit.

Never complain if yu are making money, only if you lose.
If you are consistently making money, You are already there. Risk reward ratio is always at play.
Consider the alternative.

regards
Thanks Chief,

I guess its upto me to increase the scout size...

Also now i only play asian session has office next day morning and there is not big movement in that session...

Lets see...

V

PS: I always have big tidal wave on back of my head...
  • #7,031
  • Jun 8, 2009 9:50am Jun 8, 2009 9:50am
Quoting fti
Hi DutchAngel,
Thanks for the info.
I see whats happening now.
Seems market makers in London and Europe are SHORT of USD or will be soon. They need to buy them back cheap. So will the bottom fall out of the cable? and Euro as well.

Thanks Dutchangel, was this hot off the oven?

regards
Hi fti

I got it earlier this afternoon as a rumour, but just logged onto their website and see it is confirmed.

regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #7,032
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:04am Jun 8, 2009 10:04am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi fti

I got it earlier this afternoon as a rumour, but just logged onto their website and see it is confirmed.

regards
Hi DutchAngel,
Thanks, seems its been discounted, at dealing levels.
Lets see if big money reacts to the info.
This info by itself is bear cable and Euros.
Lets see, I am waiyting for bigger money to hit.
Lets see if the bottom falols off the cable and Euro, esp cable.
be nimble to react.

regards
  • #7,033
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:15am Jun 8, 2009 10:15am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi fti

I got it earlier this afternoon as a rumour, but just logged onto their website and see it is confirmed.

regards
I may have different opinion.

The down-grading of sovereign credit may have only a temporary effect. I rememembered on 21 May, UK was down-graded, but after 300 pips drop it reached new high with more increases. And Ukrain' down-grading was announced when it has touched lowest exchange rate vs. euro.

BTW, I longed G/U around 5910, with 20~50 pips closed. Still small long E/U positions with less than 30 pips book loss. I am expecting a rebound to touch 3890 again.
  • #7,034
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:16am Jun 8, 2009 10:16am
So so quiet, no pulse, if this was a person, would be pronounced dead.

Seems big hands holding market, lets see for how long.Or is this being discounted?
Sure hope no rogue trader surfaces again.
  • #7,035
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:23am Jun 8, 2009 10:23am
Quoting Green_David
I may have different opinion.

The down-grading of sovereign credit may have only a temporary effect. I rememembered on 21 May, UK was down-graded, but after 300 pips drop it reached new high with more increases. And Ukrain' down-grading was announced when it has touched lowest exchange rate vs. euro.

BTW, I longed G/U around 5910, with 20~50 pips closed. Still small long E/U positions with less than 30 pips book loss. I am expecting a rebound to touch 3890 again.
David

Unless I am mistaken, there was a threat that UK's AAA rating would be downgraded in May, but it is still AAA.

regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #7,036
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:28am Jun 8, 2009 10:28am
Quoting DutchAngel
David

Unless I am mistaken, there was a threat that UK's AAA rating would be downgraded in May, but it is still AAA.

regards
On May 21, S&P did downgraded UK sovereign credit. And that is the reason it dropped 300 pips in a short time. There are many gradings, sovereign, government bonds, etc. But any way, pa and following flow is the king.
  • #7,037
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:34am Jun 8, 2009 10:34am
Quoting Green_David
On May 21, S&P did downgraded UK sovereign credit. And that is the reason it dropped 300 pips in a short time. There are many gradings, sovereign, government bonds, etc. But any way, pa and following flow is the king.
David

I agree with you on following price, as said, I could be mistaken, always interesting to try and gauge how market deals with news. Always unpredictable.

I find mahes's walks more reliable sometimes.

Anyway, wish you all good trading thru NY, I need to cook dinner for the fam now.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #7,038
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:36am Jun 8, 2009 10:36am
Hi,
Has market been behaving like this while I was away.
Funny feelings , something's amist.

This feels like market maker controlled, or is it broker controlled.
Still waiting to if things will "normalise"

Have the liquidity providers abandoned the retail infant,
if so then shame shame.

still watching, wher's my WD40 and aloe vera.

regards

To those lunching and having dinner, bon appetite, nothings happening fx front.
  • #7,039
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:43am Jun 8, 2009 10:43am
Quoting DutchAngel
David

I agree with you on following price, as said, I could be mistaken, always interesting to try and gauge how market deals with news. Always unpredictable.

I find mahes's walks more reliable sometimes.

Anyway, wish you all good trading thru NY, I need to cook dinner for the fam now.
UK was not downgraded, rather put on review. No downgrade decision has been made nor will one occur for some time to come.
  • #7,040
  • Jun 8, 2009 10:46am Jun 8, 2009 10:46am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Has market been behaving like this while I was away.
Funny feelings , something's amist.

This feels like market maker controlled, or is it broker controlled.
Still waiting to if things will "normalise"

Have the liquidity providers abandoned the retail infant,
if so then shame shame.

still watching, wher's my WD40 and aloe vera.

regards

To those lunching and having dinner, bon appetite, nothings happening fx front.
Hi, FTI:

It's OK. E/u is not going down now, maybe profit taking is functioning. 100 pips correction is nothing for 550 pips drop.

Maybe there will be good timing on tomorrow, if E/U bounced high and USD bulls think it is cheaper.
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