EUR/USD back at 1.6000 and GOLD above 1000$ really SOON | Forex Factory

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EUR/USD back at 1.6000 and GOLD above 1000$ really SOON

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 2:37pm Jun 6, 2009 12:11pm | Edited 2:37pm
I believe this recent strength in the dollar will be very short lived and is nothing else than a great oportunity to enter long at low levels. EUR/USD will probably retrace to 1.3785/1.3800 or at most 1.3730 before continuing its uptrend. Soon eur/usd will break recent highs and go for 1.5000 and eventually 1.6038 all time high late in this summer and gold will break 1000 easily and explode further.



http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_8nEZokcODc...-h/eurusd1.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #2
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:27pm Jun 6, 2009 12:27pm
back to 1.60? i say back and behind!maybe a 1.80-2.00 is a probable situation in the coming year
  • #3
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:47pm Jun 6, 2009 12:47pm
Quoting tunera
back to 1.60? i say back and behind!maybe a 1.80-2.00 is a probable situation in the coming year
Yes i believe it will break 1.6000 this year but i was talking about the near future (1-3 months). So where do you think it would be a good point to enter long with minimal risk?

I tried to insert an image to show why i believe 1.3785/1.3800 or 1.3730 at most is a good entry. 1.3800 is the target for the head and shoulders on the hourly charts so there will be some profit taking there. 1.3792 is a former strong support. And that's not all, 1.3785 is also 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the move 1.2885-1.4337. Last line of defence in the is around 1.3730. That is my "OO" point
  • #4
  • Jun 6, 2009 1:12pm Jun 6, 2009 1:12pm
hi, unluckly i'm unable to see your image (maybe a forexfactory issue don't know), anyway i've made a litte image of what i think CAN happen, i just thinked abou 3 scenarios, i just use support-resistance approach to trading, no fibos or patterns etc, but i see that there are somecoincidences in our preditctions, eheh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Immagine.JPG Size: 139 KB
  • #5
  • Jun 6, 2009 1:25pm Jun 6, 2009 1:25pm
thinking again about it, it's crazy to make such forecasts.. let's see what happen, and decide in real-time what to do it's always the best choice!
  • #6
  • Jun 7, 2009 8:55am Jun 7, 2009 8:55am
I am thinking that the US dollar will be weak next few months, Because FED making a lot of money last months...
Such forecasts like Eur/USD at 1.60 is not unbelivable but I think that we cannot see them, may be the dollar will be in range from 1.36 to 1.48 next few months.
Fore the gold is possible to see new high because the strend of the money and US dollar going down, next years we will see growing inflation in US and I think the most commodities will rise up .
  • #7
  • Jun 7, 2009 9:10am Jun 7, 2009 9:10am
Your responses all sound very logical and well thought out. However no one here has addressed an extremely important area the has a profound impact on prices. That of basic fundamentals.

From a technical standpoint the scenarios appear logical but since when was the FX market ever logical? Nothing that I've read so far has addressed the very fundamental that caused the most recent world wide ecconomic down turn, no one saw THAT in the technicals until AFTER it happened.

Has anyone here thought about WHY the US Dollar has gained strenth lately or was week previously? Do the words "quantitative easing" mean anything? Does it matter that the US, UK, and EZ are all using this tactic in their respective countries if to different degrees? Could that also explain the recent movements in the currency prices? Why does the GBP show such a strong bullish trend even AFTER it was downgraded by standards and poors? hmmmm!

While technical analysis has its place, it is NOT the end all or be all of trading and it is only about 50/50 for "predicting" future price movement...by the way so is a coin toss.

Something to consider...trade what is happening NOW, not what you THINK will happen tomorrow.
  • #8
  • Jun 7, 2009 1:24pm Jun 7, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting gspajon
Something to consider...trade what is happening NOW, not what you THINK will happen tomorrow.

Exactly!
  • #9
  • Jun 7, 2009 4:23pm Jun 7, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting p.andrews
I am thinking that the US dollar will be weak next few months, Because FED making a lot of money last months...
Such forecasts like Eur/USD at 1.60 is not unbelivable but I think that we cannot see them, may be the dollar will be in range from 1.36 to 1.48 next few months.
Fore the gold is possible to see new high because the strend of the money and US dollar going down, next years we will see growing inflation in US and I think the most commodities will rise up .
Well you know what Charles Dow would say? I don't care about fundamentals because they are already reflected in the price.
  • #10
  • Jun 7, 2009 4:59pm Jun 7, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting recreator82
Well you know what Charles Dow would say? I don't care about fundamentals because they are already reflected in the price.

This statement contradicts your first post.
  • #11
  • Jun 7, 2009 5:40pm Jun 7, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting gspajon
Your responses all sound very logical and well thought out. However no one here has addressed an extremely important area the has a profound impact on prices. That of basic fundamentals.

From a technical standpoint the scenarios appear logical but since when was the FX market ever logical? Nothing that I've read so far has addressed the very fundamental that caused the most recent world wide ecconomic down turn, no one saw THAT in the technicals until AFTER it happened.

Has anyone here thought about WHY the US Dollar has gained strenth lately...
I strongly agree with you.Many technical analysts are in the pits today because they ignore what they can see now.May be people need to read the thread titled `technical analysis fallacy.`Any analysis should respect price action.It is funny to be thinking that the current strength of dollar will only short-live.It is better never to argue with the market.
we cannot succeed without a well defined risk management.
  • #12
  • Edited 5:30am Jun 8, 2009 5:20am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting fxterrapin
This statement contradicts your first post.
really? why is that?

Quoting bosun2007
I strongly agree with you.Many technical analysts are in the pits today because they ignore what they can see now.May be people need to read the thread titled `technical analysis fallacy.`Any analysis should respect price action.It is funny to be thinking that the current strength of dollar will only short-live.It is better never to argue with the market.
Where am i arguing with the market! The market says euro is strong in the big picture. Look at daily chart from April 21 till today. We are in an uptrend! So in an uptrend you buy on dips (at predefined levels where you anticipate demand will emerge).
  • #13
  • Last Post: Jun 8, 2009 5:31am Jun 8, 2009 5:31am
I read here on ff an article that talked about the Fed possibly rasing rates by end of this year if their is continued positive economic data. In any case with int rates as low as they are, its definately the end of the rate cutting cycle.

If it happens that would dampen any carry with the euro and other currencys'. So (famous last words) 1.80 aint about to happen (caveat: this year).

I know dollar depreciation is the long term trend, but to achieve new highs will required a rate raising cycle in the eurozone to be a lot more aggressive.
bull in a china shop
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