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Hedge and Correlation Strategy

  • #141
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:48pm Jun 5, 2009 6:48pm
Dreamliner, is basically just dreaming, pun intended.

If such a system worked 24/5 with no other entry conditions, then everyone would be rich. Commercial/Banks traders would always make a profit etc.

Come on people, wake up.

I worked for Barclays (London) trading floor (8 years) and HSBC (Hong Kong) trading floor (12 years), we had a margin of 5M each, yet we still made losses on the EURUSD/USDCHF and EURCHF hedges, like many other so called hedges.

If you dont place your entries correctly based on power/trend/news then you will at somepoint blow your account. Also, sometimes banks will, for no apparent reason (outside news statements) BUY or SELL millions worth of currency to consolidate their negative positions, meaning the current price moves to your SL's if you have them or again blow your account if you do not.
  • #142
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:08pm Jun 5, 2009 7:08pm
I'm sure enjoying the dream, 29 percent profit in the past month. Guess I need to "wake up" huh?

Possibly Trader "Pro" could explain his system. (Watch, everyone, how he dodges this, and won't explain anything helpful.)

Quoting tradepro
Dreamliner, is basically just dreaming, pun intended.

If such a system worked 24/5 with no other entry conditions, then everyone would be rich. Commercial/Banks traders would always make a profit etc.

Come on people, wake up.

I worked for Barclays (London) trading floor (8 years) and HSBC (Hong Kong) trading floor (12 years), we had a margin of 5M each, yet we still made losses on the EURUSD/USDCHF and EURCHF hedges, like many other so called hedges.

If you dont place your entries correctly based on power/trend/news then you will at somepoint...
  • #143
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:44pm Jun 5, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting Dreamliner
I'm sure enjoying the dream, 29 percent profit in the past month. Guess I need to "wake up" huh?

Possibly Trader "Pro" could explain his system. (Watch, everyone, how he dodges this, and won't explain anything helpful.)
29% in a month ?, my god, go and borrow a couple of million and hey presto you would be rich soon enough.

if you keep dreaming long enough, you will end up on a beach somewhere.

You need to look at trend/power/news regardless of the pairs you trade. My guess is that you are on this forum posting your so called profitable systems because they are not. If there were then you wouldnt need too.

People should ask themseleves the main question, if a system existed that was 100% fool proof then why are people posting on this website ?????????????????????????
  • #144
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:25pm Jun 5, 2009 8:25pm
No bad-mouthing or disrespect intended tradepro, but pony up and let's see what ya got. You have 10 posts of criticism, let's see some juice; what do you do that's working for you?
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #145
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:26pm Jun 5, 2009 8:26pm
And again I post what I posted on the other thread, where you didn't share anything of value either. I don't know why you come here looking for systems, you are certainly not wanted or valued. Here it is:

I trade two systems, which I have developed myself, which I have freely shared on this forum. Both are profitable. So no need to assume I don't have the skills to do homework, and try to divert the conversation from your selfishness and refusal to share.

Again, you post that you can profit, big deal. No need to post a thing on this forum, as again I say to you, this forum is for those traders who wish to help others by posting systems.

Your arrogance and selfishness is simply not needed, nor wanted here. I would suggest you look elsewhere to post how profitable you are, but this time, place a disclaimer such as this:

Disclaimer: I will in no way share anything of help to you, my only reason for posting here is to show you that I am a really good trader.

Quoting tradepro
29% in a month ?, my god, go and borrow a couple of million and hey presto you would be rich soon enough.

if you keep dreaming long enough, you will end up on a beach somewhere.

You need to look at trend/power/news regardless of the pairs you trade. My guess is that you are on this forum posting your so called profitable systems because they are not. If there were then you wouldnt need too.

People should ask themseleves the main question, if a system existed that was 100% fool proof then why are people posting on this website ?????????????????????????...
  • #146
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:28pm Jun 5, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting stevegee58
No bad-mouthing or disrespect intended tradepro, but pony up and let's see what ya got. You have 10 posts of criticism, let's see some juice; what do you do that's working for you?
Forget it, Steve. He has no interest in helping anybody, his desire is to feel better than others, which he can only do if he keeps everything hidden so we won't discover anything.

People like him are truly worthless on this forum.

Of course, if he does pony up and speak up, I'll change my mind.
  • #147
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:42pm Jun 5, 2009 8:42pm
Hey are you still using the same method as laid out on page 1 post 1? I'm going through the rest of this thread and saw some interesting concerns and suggestions. Any you've incorporated?
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #148
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:44pm Jun 5, 2009 8:44pm
Quoting stevegee58
Hey are you still using the same method as laid out on page 1 post 1? I'm going through the rest of this thread and saw some interesting concerns and suggestions. Any you've incorporated?
Yes, still am Steve. It's doing very well. I can't remember all the suggestions here, I'm just using it basically as outlined on post 1. I do use the daily view. It's been a wonderful system, especially the Eur/Jpy and Usd/Jpy pairs.
  • #149
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:47pm Jun 5, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting stevegee58
Hey are you still using the same method as laid out on page 1 post 1? I'm going through the rest of this thread and saw some interesting concerns and suggestions. Any you've incorporated?
Dreamliner, whats up, you cant hack it in the real world ????, what a joke.
  • #150
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:48pm Jun 5, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting tradepro
Dreamliner, whats up, you cant hack it in the real world ????, what a joke.
Again, all who know you, suggest you simply go elsewhere and boast. We have no interest in your type.
  • #151
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:51pm Jun 5, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Again, all who know you, suggest you simply go elsewhere and boast. We have no interest in your type.
Post your so called profitable systems. They are not. Ha Ha. Joke.
  • #152
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:53pm Jun 5, 2009 8:53pm
One of these days you will learn that what goes around comes around. You've never helped anybody, therefore nobody will help you. And it is clear that you need it. So I'm all done speaking with your type, feel free to say whatever you want now, since you just waste space.

Quoting tradepro
Post your so called profitable systems. They are not. Ha Ha. Joke.
  • #153
  • Jun 5, 2009 9:02pm Jun 5, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting Dreamliner
One of these days you will learn that what goes around comes around. You've never helped anybody, therefore nobody will help you. And it is clear that you need it. So I'm all done speaking with your type, feel free to say whatever you want now, since you just waste space.
No i wont.

You cant possibly win.

You have have no idea what it takes to win in forex. what a muppet!!!!!
  • #154
  • Jun 5, 2009 9:26pm Jun 5, 2009 9:26pm
Geez, what a twat! TP, maybe DL is wrong, but at least he is here trying to help people. Meanwhile all you can do is use 75% of your 13 (!!!) posts here to tear people and their ideas down. Fuck off already!
" Average traders look to the left, great traders look to the right."
  • #155
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:55am Jun 6, 2009 2:55am
Hi Dreamliner,

do you still simply use dailyfx to overlay the charts and then do on the 30M TF?

That's amazing that such an easy method works for you. Well done.

I think the key to this system, and every system in forex/trading is to have your SL and be prepared to accept a loss when it moves that unfortunate distance away from you. DL, how many times do you generally get stopped out as a % of wins? Is your SL a set % based on MM or is it a standard number of pips?

Thanks.

ps/ Traderpro, it'd be good if you could pass on some of your extensive knowledge of forex systems that have a high % of winning. We're all here to collaborate, right?
  • #156
  • Jun 6, 2009 3:14am Jun 6, 2009 3:14am
I do a lot of hedging but these days is very difficult with this volotility we experience. But in any case, my hedges are:
GBP/GPY long
usd/chf short
gbp/usd short
chf/jpy short

My largest swap rate is gbp/jpy and the others are small negs. This is not much income but it is income daily and keeps my account in balance. It will not be useful on very small accounts though, meaning under $10,000

I have other account I trade daily futures though.

Try it on demo for a while.
Good luck
  • #157
  • Jun 12, 2009 2:43am Jun 12, 2009 2:43am
Quoting tradepro
If such a system worked 24/5 with no other entry conditions, then everyone would be rich. Commercial/Banks traders would always make a profit etc.

Come on people, wake up.

I worked for Barclays (London) trading floor (8 years) and HSBC (Hong Kong) trading floor (12 years), we had a margin of 5M each, yet we still made losses on the EURUSD/USDCHF and EURCHF hedges, like many other so called hedges.

If you dont place your entries correctly based on power/trend/news then you will at somepoint blow your account.
Guys, I'm not here to discuss Tradepro's attitudes, but I'm afraid (IMHO) much of what he says in the above quote is correct.

If you're trading 1 lot EURUSD long and 1 lot GBPUSD short simultaneously, it's basically the same as trading 2 lots EURGBP long. (i.e. EUR/USD x 1/(GBP/USD) = EUR/GBP). See the chart I've attached. Over the last 15 minutes, GBPUSD has fallen much more steeply than EURUSD, hence the net result is a rise in EURGBP. You can see how the white line is the net difference between the red and pink lines, at each point. So the underlying basis for success in a EURUSD/GBPUSD hedge is effectively how well EURGBP is trending, and how accurately you're timing your entries and exits (adjusting your position) around these moves.

I haven't read thru all the posts in this thread, and I'm neither knowledgeable nor bold enough to say outright that your hedge won't be long term profitable, but I do know that ultimately a winning edge comes from the way in which entries and exits are timed, rather than from a hedge itself. MM alone, however sophisticated it might be, is not enough.

I wouldn't dismiss too lightly the opinions of a guy with 20 years' experience trading in big banks. Like he says, if it were possible to win continually with a a system with no entry conditions, everybody would be using it (or something similar), and we'd all be rich. But of course that's impossible, forex being a zero sum game.

I'm not trying to be negative. I sincerely wish you guys all the best. I looked at hedging systems when I started studying forex back in 2006 (here, for example), and I'm just giving my honest opinion, for whatever it's worth.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: correlation example.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #158
  • Jun 12, 2009 4:06pm Jun 12, 2009 4:06pm
Hanover, yes I hear what you are saying, and I appreciate greatly the manner in which you said it; so much better than the other guy .

Quoting hanover
Guys, I'm not here to discuss Tradepro's attitudes, but I'm afraid (IMHO) much of what he says in the above quote is correct.

If you're trading 1 lot EURUSD long and 1 lot GBPUSD short simultaneously, it's basically the same as trading 2 lots EURGBP long. (i.e. EUR/USD x 1/(GBP/USD) = EUR/GBP). See the chart I've attached. Over the last 15 minutes, GBPUSD has fallen much more steeply than EURUSD, hence the net result is a rise in EURGBP. You can see how the white line is the net difference between the red and pink lines, at each point. So the underlying...
  • #159
  • Jun 23, 2009 11:34am Jun 23, 2009 11:34am
Quoting tinkywinky
I do a lot of hedging but these days is very difficult with this volotility we experience. But in any case, my hedges are:
GBP/GPY long
usd/chf short
gbp/usd short
chf/jpy short

My largest swap rate is gbp/jpy and the others are small negs. This is not much income but it is income daily and keeps my account in balance. It will not be useful on very small accounts though, meaning under $10,000

I have other account I trade daily futures though.

Try it on demo for a while.
Good luck
Hello everybody,
I like the idea to hedge a combination of pairs. Has anybody tried the combination of GBPJPY, EURJPY, GBPUSD and EURUSD? If to take into account the ATR and pip value of these pairs, they seem to be quite equal.
If trading this combination, nobody can say that we trade EURGBP or USDJPY or whatever into one direction only
I will try demo it for sure.
Indrek
  • #160
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:04am Jun 25, 2009 8:04am
Hi Dreamliner,

you've said you currently trade more 'hedge pairs' than eurusd-gbpusd, could you post what pair combinations you use and what are, from your observation, most profitable? Also what time frames do you use and which one you find to be the best?

Thanks for sharing your method, it's really interesting - I'm demo'ing it and it looks damn fascinating.

Keep this thread alive folks and post your charts and observations. I think I've noticed some things that could improve our trading - I have to check it more, than I post my conclusions.
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