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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,921
  • Jun 5, 2009 2:33pm Jun 5, 2009 2:33pm
Dear fti, thank you once again and congrats on your wedding anniversary.

Throughout the thread, you emphasis on "feeling" the trend, "pulsing" the market, and "dancing" with price.

You also mentioned the foundational need of knowing price action, ie chart patterns etc. (of course not making assumptions)

Arggg, I dont know how to ask you this, basically your analogy of "dancing" does not neccassary refer to textbook theory of PA and chart pattern right ? Its that the pip movement feel so intuitive right that you make a probe bet to find out, am i correct ? So much so that a good dancer can dance even without the prior knowdelge of PA and chart patterns, or at least is doing it on a subconsious level.
  • #6,922
  • Jun 5, 2009 2:44pm Jun 5, 2009 2:44pm
very good to see you back on FF again FTI. i hope you get your feel for the dance back soon.

iam not realy studying the thread much because i am looking at charts every day. i want to dance well before i rescue and attack like the veterans.

i saw Zatoichi (movie) today and made the end-quote my signature.... i hope it works. it should remind me not to predict price and anything can happen.

have a good weekend all.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,923
  • Jun 5, 2009 2:54pm Jun 5, 2009 2:54pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Dear fti, thank you once again and congrats on your wedding anniversary.

Throughout the thread, you emphasis on "feeling" the trend, "pulsing" the market, and "dancing" with price.

You also mentioned the foundational need of knowing price action, ie chart patterns etc. (of course not making assumptions)

Arggg, I dont know how to ask you this, basically your analogy of "dancing" does not neccassary refer to textbook theory of PA and chart pattern right ? Its that the pip movement feel so intuitive right that you make a probe bet...
Hi aiyahmarklah,

You are technically correct.
Analysis skills is an advantage that is accorded a nimble trader who can feel the flow of the market. Of course if you had privy to orders flow it will clear up lots of analysis uncertainties.
Only that Technical analysis is helpful to a trader who can analyse the flow independent of the ego blinding that affects many traders.You may want to use the Techs, esp the MAs to help guide you into the flow of the markets, but only as guide, if you are a novice at the markets. A trader will have to be able to from form feel the market , to determine if the risk flow is in tune to whats happening in realtime. Otherwise its all only illusional esp to traders that have the ego scorpions.

Overtime you will find that this "feel" and dance skills take predominance in your trade vis a vis technicals as you would be more in the market than trading on expectations. As you gain more trade experience, many of us will drop that expectations and trade in tune to flow , which would enhance your P&L tremendously.

Generally skill sets have a rigidity to its capabilities , while ability to dance the flow is very dynamic in its ability to strategise and atune to the markets gyrations.

Chart patterns can mutate over time, and without the ability to manual override it would normally put traders into the "hope" mindset which can prove very dangerous to the book's health.

I am not really against most form of Technical Analysis except for when they are used in a "predictive" manner.
or used as mechanical triggers. These are the worst manners in which to navigate a live and dynamic market.

Hope this helps to clear your thinking a little.

regards
  • #6,924
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:00pm Jun 5, 2009 3:00pm
All squared. Finished with a small rescue around 1.3970 a little while ago.
A long day but a good finish to the week.
Have a good weekend. Ray
  • #6,925
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:08pm Jun 5, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Throughout the thread, you emphasis on "feeling" the trend, "pulsing" the market, and "dancing" with price.

Arggg, I dont know how to ask you this, basically your analogy of "dancing" does not neccassary refer to textbook theory of PA and chart pattern right ? Its that the pip movement feel so intuitive right that you make a probe bet to find out, am i correct ? So much so that a good dancer can dance even without the prior knowdelge of PA and chart patterns, or at least is doing it on a subconsious level.
this is exactly what i was asking myself and just started to look at the chart. entering a scout at higher TF. trend. my best feel for the price comes after modest decline then i am making the best trades. when i am up i am not so sharp, even lazy. when i am down much i do not believe a opportunity when i see it.

i think the idea is to get your mind in the zone of my modest loss... not lazy or scared but focussed.... i am working on this and it should improve my dancing....

i cannot realy say what i see on the chart but i see things i saw before.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,926
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:08pm Jun 5, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting 1234
All squared. Finished with a small rescue around 1.3970 a little while ago.
A long day but a good finish to the week.
Have a good weekend. Ray
Hi Ray,
Good for you.

See you monday then.
Have great weekend too.
regards
  • #6,927
  • Edited 3:33pm Jun 5, 2009 3:18pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting j-pax
this is exactly what i was asking myself and just started to look at the chart. entering a scout at higher TF. trend. my best feel for the price comes after modest decline then i am making the best trades. when i am up i am not so sharp, even lazy. when i am down much i do not believe a opportunity when i see it.

i think the idea is to get your mind in the zone of my modest loss... not lazy or scared but focussed.... i am working on this and it should improve my dancing....

i cannot realy say what i see on the chart but i see things i saw...
Hi j-pax,

This is the basic mindset that you must develop. But you must no forget about proper MM. Without which you may find that during some market variances you may not have the necessary resources to operate the mindset and or reaches and over extended your risk tolerance, therby putting you in stunt territories where you thinking and abilityto strategise is impaired. It takes only ONE such incident and your book may be killed.Believe me that there are many variance that the market will throw at you in your trading lifetime. The key is to make tolerance to overcome ALL that can put your book to the grind.

Inexperienced and greedy traders normally fall in such variance test. (which is the second reason , why most cannot survive the book).It doesn't matter if you can survive 100s of these, fail one and the book could be finished.

That is why experienced traders alway say to "trade what you can afford to lose" Many traders fail there because the focus is on the profits and they forget the risk. ( This is esp so for geared trades, ie leveraged accounts).There is much advice everywhere about limiting losses by stops. For me if a trader resorted to such, basically I think they are already gambling. But for novice traders, that is not too bad the idea that the losses may have a floor, only that if this was internalised, said traders will never truly learn to manage risk. Not in the real sense. I stress that stops do not always allow traders to exit positions gracefully, esp in fast market scenarios.

regards
  • #6,928
  • Edited 3:57pm Jun 5, 2009 3:44pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting fti
Hi aiyahmarklah,

You are technically correct.
Analysis skills is an advantage that is accorded a nimble trader who can feel the flow of the market. Of course if you had privy to orders flow it will clear up lots of analysis uncertainties.
Only that Technical analysis is helpful to a trader who can analyse the flow independent of the ego blinding that affects many traders.You may want to use the Techs, esp the MAs to help guide you into the flow of the markets, but only as guide. A trader will have to be able to from form feel the market , to determine...
Thank you, you are so right about "prediction", gave me many things to unlearn. I do use a couple of MAs, and your suggestion on not drawing a trendline or pattern on a chart and thus superimposing a fixed opinion really opened my eyes.

So with my littel understanding, what you advocate is that one must constantly measure the risk in relation to one's bankroll, as well as modifying gameplan as the price unfolds. And not take the lazy way out of using mechanical signals and stoploss.

You mentioned

" As a wrongly timed entrance , just signifys your lack of the ability to pulse the market.
The right protocol, I repeat, would be to either withdraw from the position
with minimal damage.(damage control if you please).
or to commit into the position, as a rescue process and a re-averaging process
for position retreval.
There is no other avenues other than these two options."

Is such protocol implemented only if it is part of the strategy ?



Coz I see the danger is that when deciding which protocol to use, what you say below may happen,

"If positioning was bad, and the trader reverts back to analysis,
then the whole process collapses into hope.
And a host of subjectivity and egoistical processes begins.
Which will paralyse the traders determination and create illusional thinking."


Please enlighten....

edit : the way I do it is that i usually have predertermined course of action in event of loss. I find it easier to pull the trigger, as such circumstances simply doesnt allow much time for procrastination.
  • #6,929
  • Edited 4:41pm Jun 5, 2009 3:58pm | Edited 4:41pm

Please all, not understand badly what I write now.

My biggest loss is 5%.I always fight to the end.I am rescue even a few days.

I do not have a lot of losses.Last two months I have two days loss(-4,-3%).
What happened to me yesterday?I had free soldiers but not fight.I took a loss.
"Yesterday I was defeated in my mind"


PS "Scorpions are growing exponentially".


  • #6,930
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:04pm Jun 5, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting j-pax
this is exactly what i was asking myself and just started to look at the chart. entering a scout at higher TF. trend. my best feel for the price comes after modest decline then i am making the best trades. when i am up i am not so sharp, even lazy. when i am down much i do not believe a opportunity when i see it.

i think the idea is to get your mind in the zone of my modest loss... not lazy or scared but focussed.... i am working on this and it should improve my dancing....

i cannot realy say what i see on the chart but i see things i saw before....
yeah pretty hard to articulate it huh ?

yes focus and concentration. one good way to feel is to feel the "resistance", not price but rather your PnL. Play some poker, you may understand what i mean.

accuracy of such "analysis" has close relation to STATE OF EMOTION
  • #6,931
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:41am Jun 6, 2009 2:41am
fti,
Welcome back.
Happy anniversary to you and your wife, we are glad you stayed young at heart.
Sorry to hear of the death in the family, one scripture that has been a source of encouragement for myself and others is at John 5:28,29.
  • #6,932
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:16am Jun 6, 2009 4:16am
FTI I forgot my condolence.
"beloved people always live in our beautiful memories"

Regards
  • #6,933
  • Jun 7, 2009 9:33am Jun 7, 2009 9:33am
Quoting fti
Thanks DutchAngel,

You are right, much blessings on this date.
Thanks for your kind wishes.

While I was away, earlier, I was kinda delayed in returning.
"Micky Mouse" my jovial grandfather, on my mother's side, he passed on. Kicked the bucket on the 25th May, he was 98 years old and due to chinese custom of adding one year for heaven and one for earth and one for himself , he finished at 101 years on record. He set a benchmark difficult for me to and many in the family to try to beat.
Much good memories of him , and is sadly missed and fondly...
Just a reminder that just because he smokes and live a long life doesn't mean you should continue. My dad passed on last month and he is only 72. Died of stroke because of smoking. Tomorrow is his 49 days.

Take care all.
  • #6,934
  • Jun 7, 2009 10:39am Jun 7, 2009 10:39am
Quoting fti
Hi aiyahmarklah,

You are technically correct.
Analysis skills is an advantage that is accorded a nimble trader who can feel the flow of the market. Of course if you had privy to orders flow it will clear up lots of analysis uncertainties.
Only that Technical analysis is helpful to a trader who can analyse the flow independent of the ego blinding that affects many traders.You may want to use the Techs, esp the MAs to help guide you into the flow of the markets, but only as guide, if you are a novice at the markets. A trader will have to be...
I agree except for this last paragraph. I use a static linear Algorithym in my EA ( mechanical Triggers ) and this EA has helped me lose the emotional fear associated with Drawdown anxiety. How many trade entries go profitable as soon as their born? Maybe 1 in 100? Technical Analysis has a place in Forex-but maybe only becuase so many still use it. When a decision to enter a trade is made (by EA or Trader) let it grow or die.Only as a newbie (or when I used FXCM) did I consistently lose money.Now I ONLY trade the "MainTrend" (one way trading) and this one change has led me to profits.( not a great amount-lol). I stil think that all Technical Analysis is a distraction that serves the Broker and instills hope.I no longer use Forex as an Investment-Brokers have killed this market-I only play here.
FF = Forex Faggots
  • #6,935
  • Jun 7, 2009 5:18pm Jun 7, 2009 5:18pm
Hi FTI

Recapitulation my big danger loss.

Many wins created CERTAINTY.
CERTAINTY in the markets is very dangerous ... creates ARROGANCE to markets(I wrote about it but I was not observant my Skorpion =

"I am the king of the market").
"Scorpion got into the wild river and paralyzed me" ... my CERTAINTY

-the first error, the second error, the third error etc. = DISORIENTATION,PARALYZED,DEFEATED IN MY MIND ... Why?
"more success forms bigger scorpions"- greater than my mindset.

Hard lessons for me but I am good in this - I cut big loss, I could be dead Account (not praise yourself).


Maybe it to someone will help.


PS FTI thank you for the "key",you are gemstone.
"The key is to make tolerance to overcome ALL that can put your book to the grind".

"butterfly is perhaps born"

Regards


  • #6,936
  • Jun 7, 2009 10:38pm Jun 7, 2009 10:38pm
Quoting sitoca
Just a reminder that just because he smokes and live a long life doesn't mean you should continue. My dad passed on last month and he is only 72. Died of stroke because of smoking. Tomorrow is his 49 days.

Take care all.
Hi sitoca,

My condolences for your loss.

regards.

PS: Do take some time off the markets.
  • #6,937
  • Jun 7, 2009 10:46pm Jun 7, 2009 10:46pm
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI

Recapitulation my big danger loss.

[left]Many wins created CERTAINTY.
CERTAINTY in the markets is very dangerous ... creates ARROGANCE to markets(I wrote about it but I was not observant my Skorpion =
[left]"I am the king of the market").
"Scorpion got into the wild river and paralyzed me" ... my CERTAINTY
[left]-the first error, the second error, the third error etc. = DISORIENTATION,PARALYZED,DEFEATED IN MY MIND ... Why?
"more success forms bigger scorpions"- greater than my mindset.
[left]Hard lessons for me but I am...
Hi Gro,
Yes, perhaps the metamorphosis will be complete, if you focus your discipline at it and slowly allow the it to internalise into "you". The butterfly will be a certainty,from the little worm. If you allows it.

regards

Ps: As for me, Today I stand and fight the battles of the lady again. I'm Back in town, For a Few Dollars More
Inserted Video
  • #6,938
  • Jun 7, 2009 11:09pm Jun 7, 2009 11:09pm
Scout deployed buying USD.
  • #6,939
  • Jun 7, 2009 11:36pm Jun 7, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting fti
Ps: As for me, Today I stand and fight the battles of the lady again. I'm Back in town, For a Few Dollars More
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkT7AKYIBtU&fmt=18
I love that movie ! and the other 2 movies of the same series ,
(the good, bad n the ugly + fistful of dollars)
didnt know they made it into a game
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,940
  • Jun 7, 2009 11:40pm Jun 7, 2009 11:40pm
Well i am the lowest per day guy avg here... i jsut made .15% not even 1%

I guess need some lessons on increasing scout size.... my winning are consistent the problem is the % size..

Must get some lessons from FTI...

V
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