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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,581
  • Apr 20, 2007 10:57am Apr 20, 2007 10:57am
Quoting black06
Wow, glad I was asleep on this. I see the spike down, would have been pissed lol
I really regret this explosion, but when a GUY comes to drive a currency at his will using the "should reflect fundamentals" crap, sounds nonsense.

"Should reflect fundamentals, but since it's not moving the way WE WANT, then I'll go to the wires to PUSH IT"... Last time we saw UJ from 119.82 to 117.80 non-stop. IT WORKS and IT GETS US OFF-GUARD

Trichet, Junker and all the G7s are doing this....

They should get the first flight to Tokyo, put Fukui in a room and kick his ass to raise rates, if they find Japan fundamentals should provide a stronger Yen.

Problems Europe is with high inflationary pressure, forcing rate hikes and then providing awsome deal to carry trades, pressing Yen down and pushing stock market to the roof (bubble?). And Japan is all but worried about that.

Better keep eyes wide open while holding a Yen position with UJ above 119 from now on...
  • #3,582
  • Apr 20, 2007 11:14am Apr 20, 2007 11:14am
Yeah, sounds pretty bad. In the end the market tends to normalize itself, it doesn't need any help.

Quoting cesarnc
I really regret this explosion, but when a GUY comes to drive a currency at his will using the "should reflect fundamentals" crap, sounds nonsense.

"Should reflect fundamentals, but since it's not moving the way WE WANT, then I'll go to the wires to PUSH IT"... Last time we saw UJ from 119.82 to 117.80 non-stop. IT WORKS and IT GETS US OFF-GUARD

Trichet, Junker and all the G7s are doing this....

They should get the first flight to Tokyo, put Fukui in a room and kick his ass to raise rates, if they find Japan fundamentals should provide a stronger Yen.

Problems Europe is with high inflationary pressure, forcing rate hikes and then providing awsome deal to carry trades, pressing Yen down and pushing stock market to the roof (bubble?). And Japan is all but worried about that.

Better keep eyes wide open while holding a Yen position with UJ above 119 from now on...
  • #3,583
  • Apr 20, 2007 11:35am Apr 20, 2007 11:35am
ITs really starting to get hammered down now
  • #3,584
  • Apr 20, 2007 11:35am Apr 20, 2007 11:35am
Quoting cesarnc

Better keep eyes wide open while holding a Yen position with UJ above 119 from now on...
Sound advice cesar, but Ive also heard a lot of stops above 119. They can blab all they want, the big banks will only trade the reality. Have a nice weekend.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #3,585
  • Apr 20, 2007 11:44am Apr 20, 2007 11:44am
It's just profit taking. Looks like I'll be holding over the weekend.

Quoting Mother
ITs really starting to get hammered down now
  • #3,586
  • Apr 20, 2007 12:32pm Apr 20, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting black06
It's just profit taking. Looks like I'll be holding over the weekend.
Yep, me too up +37 pips.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,587
  • Apr 20, 2007 12:44pm Apr 20, 2007 12:44pm
At 12:20 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 111 points to hit 12,919, crossing its former intraday high of 12,838. Dow components Caterpillar and Honeywell added 26 and 12 points, respectively, to the Dow's gain today. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 16 points to 2,521, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index had gained 9 points to 1,483.

  1. Volume might ease this afternoon, pulling stocks back a bit, as nice weather in New York City could prompt some traders to leave early for a long weekend, CNBC commentators speculated.


All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,588
  • Apr 20, 2007 12:48pm Apr 20, 2007 12:48pm
Quoting bmwboyee
IMO a trend change at this point would be a break of 233 range.
i would give a break below 236.80 for a short on this pair.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #3,589
  • Edited 1:08pm Apr 20, 2007 12:57pm | Edited 1:08pm
on a side note, eur/jpy looks good for a short.

EDIT: needs to break below 160.80 first. eek.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #3,590
  • Apr 20, 2007 1:30pm Apr 20, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting bravado
i would give a break below 236.80 for a short on this pair.
Good luck with that. I would hope your trade would only be for a short 50-90 pips.
  • #3,591
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:12pm Apr 20, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting bmwboyee
Good luck with that. I would hope your trade would only be for a short 50-90 pips.
For me looks good for a quick -90

Awesome Dow Jones today. High 12,950. Bulls want 13k big figure one Monday...

Hope you all did fine this week. My big trade was fat CPI -> 9880-0050. The rest was pure scalping

Heading for the beach on the weekend....
  • #3,592
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:17pm Apr 20, 2007 2:17pm
I did awesome this week. First week in three months of trading I finished in the black. Too bad I'm still facing a 65% drawdown, would be less drawdown but I was trading crazily when I first started trading.
  • #3,593
  • Edited 2:31pm Apr 20, 2007 2:18pm | Edited 2:31pm
thank you for your suggestions, I have support and resistance lines, learned another lesson in a hard way =) oh well, thats life ... now have to work double hard and double smart lol .... if it will go down to 236.75 i will BUY this time ... lol my support line 3 is at 233.80 is it correct ? so breach though this line would mean trend change ?
  • #3,594
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:27pm Apr 20, 2007 2:27pm
My 2 cents worth,
GBP/JPY going down to 236.75 and EUR/JPY down to 160.35 sometime around Monday or Tuesday
  • #3,595
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:40pm Apr 20, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting Vitaliy
thank you for your suggestions, I have support and resistance lines, learned another lesson in a hard way =) oh well, thats life ... now have to work double hard and double smart lol .... if it will go down to 236.75 i will BUY this time ... lol my support line 3 is at 233.80 is it correct ? so breach though this line would mean trend change ?

Vitally, i take it your new to this game with the fib comment, which is really no big deal, we all start somewhere. Cant help but say though you are one crazy person to be trading the wickedest pair in the whole game especially to learn on, but the flip side to that if you master this pair you can trade anything under the sun. Good luck to you and keep a chin up, losses are really a gain for the wisdom recieved from our mistakes only make us stronger. Tip Never chase it eat the loss and start over as you were placing a brand new order.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,596
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:46pm Apr 20, 2007 2:46pm
lol thats very supportive thank you , but i will be happier when i will get my pips back lol pls explain to me fibo lines ..... I was fine without them on demo only using indicators but its like already 2-3 bad orders with indicators and seems to be fibo lines could help to avoid them ...
  • #3,597
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:56pm Apr 20, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting Vitaliy
lol thats very supportive thank you , but i will be happier when i will get my pips back lol pls explain to me fibo lines ..... I was fine without them on demo only using indicators but its like already 2-3 bad orders with indicators and seems to be fibo lines could help to avoid them ...

Fibs are percetanges of a move hi lo, lo hi every move has its division big or small its universal balance. Idicators will make you go broke in the long run, Learn what Order Flow, Volume Time Price are the markets fundamental structure research into that.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,598
  • Apr 20, 2007 3:25pm Apr 20, 2007 3:25pm
not to be rude, but as far as tech fib lines and what not, please do it in another thread. this needs to be focused on just the currency pair.
  • #3,599
  • Apr 20, 2007 3:40pm Apr 20, 2007 3:40pm
Do you trade full time cesarnc? All in all it could have been alot worse here. This week was my first loosing week since starting this month, but I managed to recover some late Wednesday through today. I definitely love this so hopefully I'll be around for awhile (one of the coveted 5% ). I've learned alot this week from my losses & feel like I paid for an education. I'm learning a valueable skill here & am confident that I can consistently pull more pips out of the market. Lock in the profits & limit the losses!

Quoting cesarnc
For me looks good for a quick -90

Awesome Dow Jones today. High 12,950. Bulls want 13k big figure one Monday...

Hope you all did fine this week. My big trade was fat CPI -> 9880-0050. The rest was pure scalping

Heading for the beach on the weekend....
  • #3,600
  • Apr 20, 2007 4:29pm Apr 20, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting bhale
My 2 cents worth,
GBP/JPY going down to 236.75 and EUR/JPY down to 160.35 sometime around Monday or Tuesday
Based on...........?
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