is it realistic to set a win rate as target?

I have been going through so many puzzles regarding trading. the captioned question is the latest stupid one that awakes me, do you think as a trader it is realistic to set a win rate as trading plan target, say, a month, a quarter, or a year? probably this question was answered somewhere in this forum, but, I think it is worthwhile to see the latest development, if it existed there but I am not aware of.

The answer discovered by myself seems the same as to the question one would ask about monthly return rate. nothing seems guarranteed in this world of uncertainty. this is just the conclusion of my thinking process.

What is the reality otherwise then? please show me, if you can successfully manage your win rate consistantly.

I think I have been fooled by win rate since, so, kept on looking for anything can warrant a good win rate, say, a system of delivering 65% win/loss ratio. but, futile, then, endlessly helpless. today, I suddenly realise, pursuing a consistant win rate is no different than looking for holy grail, they are same substance in different form.

May I fully trust my belief on this? I think should, but, feel like not very, the reason is I couldn't have enough of experience to validate this is my true aha moment.

what is your opinion, experienced traders? your help, please.

If by win rate you mean the % of wins to total number of positions taken, then unfortunately there isn't an easy answer.

If by a means of a backtest you come to a conclusion that a system gives on average 55 winning trades for 100 tries, that means that:

You can experience 110 winning trades in 200, but the first hundred will hold 20 winners, and the other will hold 90

Or that (now this is extreme) in the 100 trades the 45 losses come first IN A ROW and then the 55 wins, and you will have to cope with a huge drawdown if your accnt isn't ready for it.

Normally it won't be that extreme, but it depends on a system. Win rate isn't that important compared to the overall profit. It also depends on your goals.

If you are laid back and have enough funds you could do with a system producing 30% wins but large enough to make profit in the long run.

If on the other hand you want to be squeezing the last drops out of a move, then investing time (months, years) into understanding Gann's ideas might be an option.

I know two traders personally who use it profitably and reach win ratios as high as 95% with very little risk.

Ask yourself what do you want with fx? Money, or money and FREE TIME? I used to spend 18 hour per day in front of charts and got disheartened many times due to chasing the markets like a dog.

Whatever you choose, good luck, and if you have any other specific questions, fire away

Regards,

Daniel

If I were Krue I would stick to trading methods that have atleast a little logic.

If you want a system with a high win rate i have one for you. It uses no indicators and the entries are random. The take profit is 1 pip and the stop loss is 1000 pips. The win rate should be as high as 99%.

Now if you want to also make money then forget about setting arbitrary goals especially on things like the win rate. Just think about this for a second... How exactly can you set a win rate goal in advance? What would you base that goal on to make it realistic? How would setting such a goal help you?

You seem very green so i am gonna try and humbly give yo some advise:
FORGET ABOUT SETTING FINANCIAL GOALS AND TARGETS. Concentrate on learnig about the market and how to trade it. Then use that information to develop a system. Trade that system for some time and if you see the signs of profitability only then start thinking about setting goals. Those goals will be based on what your system can actually provide and will be close to reality. Do not impose your goals, desires, expectations, on your system. Let your system dictate what those should be. It will leave you a lot less disapointed and disheartened should your system fail, and many will.

The market does not care about your goals and needs. Prices will not move differently just because that would prevent you from achieving your goals.

So for now i would sugest this goal: learn about the markets and how they can be traded succesfully. When you achieve this one you will not need to ask anyone else about any of the other goals, it will be obvious.

Good Luck!

thanks very much, friends, your answers gave me quite a lot confidence to cease the needs of certainty. it is all about the needs of certainty. I think win rate is the last thing I will ask security in trading game.

Hahaha, good one, I liked this remark. I've never paid much attention to Gann either. Waaaay too complicated for me. I'm a simple person seeking simple solutions and effective ones.

And going back to the subject, Krue, take your time and visit lottery forums and see the people that hope for consistency, i.e. winning the lottery at least once in their lives, and compare it to what you can do on the markets

Good luck

Daniel

i'm up 150+ pips in less than an hour. WENT ALLIN SHORT USDJPY... sold at 98.81, 98.80, 98.79... wanna retire with this one... TP at 97.. hope it works.

It would be rather hard to retire with demo dollars dont you think? Also it is very easy to go all in and trade recklessly when there are no real money being risked. Dont waste your time and open a small micro account or trade a demo account with a balance that you would eventually be able to afford. And if gambling is your cup of tea try the casinos instead.

Why do you gloat in this thread? you are suppose to help your fellow traders get better.. not tempt him to do reckless thing.. you are what i call a "toxic friend" in friendships.

Do you honestly think that editing your picture will add to your credibility? Since i was sure that this was gonna gonna be your next step i took a screenshot of your original picture. If you seek the respect of your fellow traders dont forget that no one respects a liar.