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Silent Service Method

  • #1,821
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:09pm Jun 4, 2009 2:09pm
Look what I found today.....I probably will get involved tomorrow. (I don't normally on NFP Friday, but this is a long-term set up.) This is what I mean by "knowing the pitch being thrown to you".....this is one that could be a home run.
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  • #1,822
  • Jun 4, 2009 3:00pm Jun 4, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting jlmac27
LVG,
You Finally found the book huh?Pretty good read?I have been searching for a pdf,with no success.Thinking on buying it though.Would you recommend it?
here is good one
http://books.google.pl/books?id=KYqE...snum=4#PPP1,M1
and here
https://admin.na3.acrobat.com/_a51591369/p77721057/
  • #1,823
  • Jun 4, 2009 3:44pm Jun 4, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
Look what I found today.....I probably will get involved tomorrow. (I don't normally on NFP Friday, but this is a long-term set up.) This is what I mean by "knowing the pitch being thrown to you".....this is one that could be a home run.
$17.50 - $18.00 looks like the next zone of resistance... stock setups are sometimes REALLY obvious
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,824
  • Jun 4, 2009 3:45pm Jun 4, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting pitpiter
here is good one
http://books.google.pl/books?id=KYqE...snum=4#PPP1,M1
and here
https://admin.na3.acrobat.com/_a51591369/p77721057/
the first link is only a preview...

if it cant be found on '4shared' its probably not on the net in pdf version.
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,825
  • Jun 4, 2009 3:53pm Jun 4, 2009 3:53pm
Very nice video clip....thanks for the link. A good listen for everyone!
Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting pitpiter
here is good one
http://books.google.pl/books?id=KYqE...snum=4#PPP1,M1
and here
https://admin.na3.acrobat.com/_a51591369/p77721057/
  • #1,826
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:16pm Jun 4, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting TiaForex
Hey Simon,

This is something I had an issue with and all those "Hey a five year old could see the trend!" posts never used to help me. I mean, were we talking about the 4h trend, the daily, the weekly or the monthly?

My view now is that trend is a judgement call. We had that great slice down in most pairs last year with huge yen and dollar strengthening. And now we see to be making those moves back some. So is this a retrace before heading further down or are we turning over? I think it's up to you. There is no clear or right answer. My inclination...

Thanks TF. I guess it comes down to determining tyrade management based on the information that you have available. So, if you're looking at a pair that is obviously trending up on the weekly and daily then you should treat short trades as counter-trend. However, if the long-term trend is less clear then you'd probably be wise to look at the daily trend and take it on face value. There are so many pairs out there that I guess some will always be trending one way or another.

Simon
  • #1,827
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:44pm Jun 4, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
Look what I found today.....I probably will get involved tomorrow. (I don't normally on NFP Friday, but this is a long-term set up.) This is what I mean by "knowing the pitch being thrown to you".....this is one that could be a home run.
Thanks for the observation. I happen to own some of this ETF. I'll be watching it. ... maybe buy some more.
Enter Signature
  • #1,828
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:53pm Jun 4, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
Thanks TF. I guess it comes down to determining tyrade management based on the information that you have available. So, if you're looking at a pair that is obviously trending up on the weekly and daily then you should treat short trades as counter-trend. However, if the long-term trend is less clear then you'd probably be wise to look at the daily trend and take it on face value. There are so many pairs out there that I guess some will always be trending one way or another.

Simon
For what it's worth, the only use I have ever found for a trend line is on a weekly chart - it shows trend in my opinion.
  • #1,829
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:24pm Jun 4, 2009 5:24pm
Lightbulb moment...

So I just realised the past few weeks I've been doing what I know I shouldn't and havn't for a long time. I've been expecting a reversal in the markets because stocks and comodities have been rising with no clear reason while the economy has been getting worse, at a slowing rate, but worse.

Trade with the trend, don't try to look for reversals, markets are more often than not independent of reality. I bet the people who thought $100 for oil was too expensive were in the same boat.

Good thing through most of this time I chose to wait and only took a couple of trades waiting for those good opportunities with clear signals, except I was EXPECTING to go a certain way on all of those and found reasons to get in. Let the price tell you the tale.
  • #1,830
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:13pm Jun 4, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting jonaslt
Lightbulb moment...

So I just realised the past few weeks I've been doing what I know I shouldn't and havn't for a long time. I've been expecting a reversal in the markets because stocks and comodities have been rising with no clear reason while the economy has been getting worse, at a slowing rate, but worse.

Trade with the trend, don't try to look for reversals, markets are more often than not independent of reality. I bet the people who thought $100 for oil was too expensive were in the same boat.

Good thing through most of this time I...
ive had this moment a week or so ago, i should have passed on the memo... i think Livermore said it best, follow the path of least resistance (or soemthing like that)... my trading has been remarkably better result wise due to looking for pullbakcs to S+R then go on with the trend...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,831
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:50pm Jun 4, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting whitegoodman
ive had this moment a week or so ago, i should have passed on the memo... i think Livermore said it best, follow the path of least resistance (or soemthing like that)... my trading has been remarkably better result wise due to looking for pullbakcs to S+R then go on with the trend...
Truthfully, I have found I can make money either way. (Counter-trend or with trend.) However, I will say that my largest winners are almost always with the trend.

As a side note, those trades tend to have a smoother motion to them.....

CW
  • #1,832
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:18pm Jun 4, 2009 7:18pm
For those interested - I did another post on the blog.

CW
  • #1,833
  • Jun 4, 2009 9:45pm Jun 4, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
For those interested - I did another post on the blog.

CW
Wow...I'm in the stage of the game where I know what I am doing and can spot potential trade setups, but I have not learned how to cope with my losses yet!

GREAT blog entry CW!
  • #1,834
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:09am Jun 5, 2009 1:09am
Quoting Digitalis

Still going to watch gbpjpy though. A shooting star as it tried to breach 155, if it goes through the next strong S/R appears to be around 160 - that would be a nice target!
I took a great profit from the gbpjpy breakthrough of 155. Although I didn't use this method for the entry trigger, I found it excellent to help me set the TP and as another confirmation of the trade.

Now I'm waiting to see if 155 will become support or whether price will drop through - a nice trade shaping up whichever, and more in line with the rules in this method!
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Full-time trader and loving it!
  • #1,835
  • Jun 5, 2009 2:55am Jun 5, 2009 2:55am
Quoting clockwork71
For those interested - I did another post on the blog.

CW
These are great CW. Especially liked your most recent blog. As I'm just starting with a live account now (5/1), I'm still struggling a little with all the emotions that come with that. Frustrated that the results on demo are not corresponding to the results for May (b/e, so not bad, just not +5%...). I have to constantly remind myself that my trading career is defined as a much longer timeframe than 1 month, much less my first live month.

Keep blogging. You have great insight on the markets!

Josh
  • #1,836
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:49am Jun 5, 2009 4:49am
Just closed GBPCHF short due to NFP shortly and target exceeded...done for the week...

Have entered a sprint triathlon this weekend, my first ever triathlon. Not quite ready for the run, but gotta start somewhere. 750m swim, 20km bike and 5k run....gotta make time for exercise, my latest obsession!

Have a great weekend and see you guys next week!

Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting CanuckCT
Here is a trade I'v entered based on a rejection at 1.77. My target is 1.7465...and I'm there in the time it's taken me to post this message...between a number of phone calls and lunch.

Stop at breakeven.....and it should be interesting to see how it reacts to 1.74...1.75 range.

I'm posting weekly and H4 charts. I could easily see a weekly pinbar in progress....if we get a drop of a few hundred pips from here...and it would be in a great location re support which is now resistance.

I still think the trend is down on this pair and the current...
  • #1,837
  • Jun 5, 2009 5:54am Jun 5, 2009 5:54am
Quoting Digitalis
I took a great profit from the gbpjpy breakthrough of 155. Although I didn't use this method for the entry trigger, I found it excellent to help me set the TP and as another confirmation of the trade.

Now I'm waiting to see if 155 will become support or whether price will drop through - a nice trade shaping up whichever, and more in line with the rules in this method!

It's all good.....good trade. You certainly don't have to use all of this information - it's all about finding what works for you. Some of this will be helpful for you, some not as much......what matters is an upward sloping equity curve.

CW
  • #1,838
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:13am Jun 5, 2009 7:13am
Quoting clockwork71
Truthfully, I have found I can make money either way. (Counter-trend or with trend.) However, I will say that my largest winners are almost always with the trend.

As a side note, those trades tend to have a smoother motion to them.....

CW

good point Chris,
I'm not sure if newer traders pick this up or not, so i would like to emphasize it here.

with trend trades do tend to run easier. ie, break cleanly & not look back as much.

CT trades usually put up a fight. ie there will be conflicting pa on lower tf's & usually a sizeable drawdown.. especially when trying to reverse a strong trend... for examples just look at the usdcad daily pin on 6/1, & has been discussed here allready the gbpchf where we had a 2 day pin followed by a breakout over 1.75 followed by beob back below 1.75.. till now.

this can cause havok with new traders as they change their plan/mind between going long & short & getting stopped on both....aaahhhhh whats wrong with this pa stuff...........

this just shows the battle going on between supply & demand & this is why it happens @ a solid ppz.. being that a lot of our pa is for picking reversals @ ppz's ct trades are what we are typically looking for. we of course should be looking in both directions. but the with trend ones can slip under the rader cause they dont stand out as much & are, as you said smoother..

the srong trends will require a strong bar to reverse them. & there usually is a battle before the new direction is decided.. this is why the ct trades can look messy & stop a lot of people out in each direction before making up its mind. of course there are ct trades that reverse & never look back but they are less than the other kind.

just something for trders to think about when placing their next order. Is this a ct or wt trade & what can I expect from it.. we all want theese trades to take off in our direction but we dont allways get what we want. lol ever herd that before....
  • #1,839
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:11pm Jun 5, 2009 1:11pm
I was done for the week.....and checked in to see this chart. I'm in for a move down to 1.55....now realizing I need a confirmation of the move down....that breaks the low of the pinbar. I still think this is a very bearish looking chart.
Cheers
CanuckCT
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  • #1,840
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:25pm Jun 5, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting CanuckCT
I was done for the week.....and checked in to see this chart. I'm in for a move down to 1.55....now realizing I need a confirmation of the move down....that breaks the low of the pinbar. I still think this is a very bearish looking chart.
Cheers
CanuckCT
A theme is developing here: GBP/CHF
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