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  • #581
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:51am Jun 4, 2009 1:51am
which pairs are you trading.
it seems that the most profitable pair is EU
  • #582
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:35am Jun 4, 2009 4:35am
Quoting wltam
which pairs are you trading.
it seems that the most profitable pair is EU
Having traded this strategy for several weeks now I'm now using the GBPUSD and GBPJPY as they seem the most dependable. I don't use EURJPY as for me, it's moves seem more erratic and tend to give more 'head fakes' with a reversal that result in entries, and then a loss at the SL.

I'm using Paulus' suggested CL at 1.618, but for half the lots, with a move of the stop loss to BE for remaining lots. These run till end of day and close at 00:00. Because GBPUSD has been the most dependable for me, with fewer reversals and SL losses, I weight my total traded lots towards it.

For example; Open with .8 GBPUSD and .4 lots GBPJPY. Close half (.4 and .2) if/when price hits 1.618 level. Move the SL on remaining lots to BE level of entry, and let the .4 GBPUSD, and .2 GBPJPY, run till end of day. Close all at 00:00.

LeoM
  • #583
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:56am Jun 4, 2009 5:56am
Quoting Leomeister
Having traded this strategy for several weeks now I'm now using the GBPUSD and GBPJPY as they seem the most dependable. I don't use EURJPY as for me, it's moves seem more erratic and tend to give more 'head fakes' with a reversal that result in entries, and then a loss at the SL.

I'm using Paulus' suggested CL at 1.618, but for half the lots, with a move of the stop loss to BE for remaining lots....
Initially I traded GU/ GJ/ GC/ EG/ EU/ EJ from 1st to 29th of May, and I printed the trade history for this period and analyse all the trades pair by pair.

I found out that half of what was won for that month was from GU so I agree with LeoM that GU is dependable, but I cannot say the same of GY bcos most of the losses were from GY and EJ they use to be very big losses that sometimes wipe the good effort of the other pairs

EG and GC have the most won trades but they are always very small but consistent, this may be due to the big spread of 7 on each of them.

My dilema now is that I just want to trade two of them all, but I dont really know which one to add alongside with great GU

if paulus is still in this thread, pls respond

thanks

kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #584
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:54am Jun 4, 2009 6:54am
Based on my experience, we just need to trade GU, with bigger lots

The second pair is really not necessary

By the way, how about your win rate

Quoting Kosomolate
[font=Fixedsys]Initially I traded GU/ GJ/ GC/ EG/ EU/ EJ from 1st to 29th of May, and I printed the trade history for this period and analyse all the trades pair by pair.

I found out that half of what was won for that month was from GU so I agree with LeoM that GU is dependable, but I cannot say the same of GY bcos most of the losses were from GY and EJ they use to be very big losses that sometimes wipe the good effort of the other pairs

EG and GC have the most won trades but they are always very small but consistent, this may be due to the big...
  • #585
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:04am Jun 4, 2009 8:04am
Hi

I trade

GBPUSD
GBPJPY
EURJPY

I take the lot off at the 161.8 % fib level

We have some draw downs of course my SL is the 50% line as per the chart

Ive also had good success with the US break out using 3 spots also

I will post that soon its very similar to another thread running

cheers

paulus
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  • #586
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:53pm Jun 4, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting Paulus
Hi

I trade

GBPUSD
GBPJPY
EURJPY

I take the lot off at the 161.8 % fib level

We have some draw downs of course my SL is the 50% line as per the chart

Ive also had good success with the US break out using 3 spots also

I will post that soon its very similar to another thread running

cheers

paulus

Hy Paulus,

Welcome back !

As I sow in your posts, you are using a box (representing the Asia session) with 9 candles. I have search on this site -

http://forex.timezoneconverter.com/i...=GMT&refresh=5

and they are saying that the Asia session begin at 23:00 GMT and it end at 07:00 GMT - so here are 8 candles. But I sow that you have in thet coloured box the candle from 22:00 GMT ?

So can you please tell me , in GMT terms , wich are the the limits for this "box" ?


Thx verry much !
  • #587
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:32pm Jun 4, 2009 1:32pm
hey FX your right I sawped my charts over from MIG to Alpari didnt think the server time would be different

On my setting I now have

GMT shift 0
start 0
End 7

Thanks for pointing that out my MIG MT4 got corrupted and just an age to open then crashed so swapped over ..I will keep these times see how it goes

Cheers

Paulus
  • #588
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:59pm Jun 4, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting Paulus
Hi

I trade

GBPUSD
GBPJPY
EURJPY

I take the lot off at the 161.8 % fib level

We have some draw downs of course my SL is the 50% line as per the chart

Ive also had good success with the US break out using 3 spots also

I will post that soon its very similar to another thread running

cheers

paulus

Hi Paulus!
yesterday and today would have been very successful days with this modification, and with this settings:
- the loss would be minimal
- if eventually it whipsaws then it would take one way
- if one side triggers and goes the other way then it would be a BE
as I have it today on GC and EG

I am going to stay with this system for a long while

thanks Paulus

kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #589
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:59pm Jun 4, 2009 8:59pm
http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/i...ica/picMT4.jpg

i already download the file...why it only show thison my screen?

what else for the setting...anyone could help...thx
  • #590
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:58pm Jun 4, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting Paulus
hey FX your right I sawped my charts over from MIG to Alpari didnt think the server time would be different

On my setting I now have

GMT shift 0
start 0
End 7

Thanks for pointing that out my MIG MT4 got corrupted and just an age to open then crashed so swapped over ..I will keep these times see how it goes

Cheers

Paulus

No problem !
We are here to help each other.

So:

Start with 00:00 GMT(shift 0)
End at 07:00 GMT(shift 0)

I think is clear for all of us now.

Have pips !
  • #591
  • Jun 5, 2009 10:57am Jun 5, 2009 10:57am
Hi just to say that I have been reading this thread with interest over the last two weeks or so, and last week started to trade based on applying (what I think is) this strategy. My results are mixed but that's because:

1) I've been targeting sometimes 161.8, sometimes 181% fib level for profit;
2) I've had my stop loss at 0% fib level (Not 50%)
3) I've been setting up my orders at 9:01 London time (or 8:01 GMT, as London is currently on DST which is GMT +1). This is what I thought was the end of the asian session, but it seems that I should've been placing the orders at 7:01 GMT (8:01 London time). Is this correct??

As I said the results are mixed, but still positive. GU, GY and EY are my fx pairs of choice. I think a little refinement of my strategy (and an adjustment to the the time I get the kids ready for school!) will ensure my results are much more consistent.

A great strategy nonetheless. Thanks Paulus and others who have given me a positive inroad into the world of FX. Look forward to the US breakout thread to add to my FX trading arsenal...
There's nothing new in trading. You buy, you sell, that's it....
  • #592
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:24pm Jun 5, 2009 1:24pm
Hi all!

are we still there and trading this system? well, as for me I am still doing it and I must confess it is a beautiful week for me.

particularly today is very good, I did it with the new setting of 1.618 level as the TP level, and the mid level as the SLs, it paid off well as the non-farm pushed them home.

EU +25 up and +25 down
EG +31 pips
EJ +42 pips
GU +76 and +10 down
GC +75 pips
GY +76 pips

Total pips for today = 360 green pips on 6 pairs

I dont know if anyone experienced what I saw today shortly before the NFP my buy stop order for EJ was removed by the broker. I dont know why. If any one can explain that I will appreciate it. if not that EJ would have made the 2 sides.

overall, the week is very good and today is excellent

paulus you are great

kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #593
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:27pm Jun 5, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting Limstylz
London is always GMT+0 (Greenwich is in London). You are referring to BST(DST) which GMT switches to and from twice a year. As GMT switches to BST, London is still GMT+0, although you are correct, it has moved an hour forward.

Perhaps it is better to use UTC?
Started reading this thread yesterday from the very beginning.

GMT and UTC are EXACTLY the same and NEVER.......NEVER change in the world. London does change depending on the time of the year.
  • #594
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:54pm Jun 5, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting Kosomolate
Hi all!

are we still there and trading this system? well, as for me I am still doing it and I must confess it is a beautiful week for me.

particularly today is very good, I did it with the new setting of 1.618 level as the TP level, and the mid level as the SLs, it paid off well as the non-farm pushed them home.

EU +25 up and +25 down
EG +31 pips
EJ +42 pips
GU +76 and +10 down
[font=Fixedsys]GC...
I agree Paulus is great.

I think I will, like you Kos, adopt the 161.8 TP and 50% SL as that will reduce the pips at risk and hence improve risk/reward to much closer to 1.0 (after covering bid/offer spread and the 10pip adjustment for false breakouts).

I too placed an EJ order today (actually an OCO order) and my trade worked as planned, but I did notice and ridiculously large spike in the 2:35pm London Time 5 min candle, where the open/close/high were the same (137.61) but the low was 128. 38 - some 920pips lower!!

Maybe it had something to do with my spread betting broker, but could be the reason for your issue. Just a thought.
There's nothing new in trading. You buy, you sell, that's it....
  • #595
  • Jun 5, 2009 10:37pm Jun 5, 2009 10:37pm
hi first thanks to paulus

the simple idea of this system is beautiful i read the whole thread yesterday and while reading trialed the g/u and like kos took all profit at nfp spike (live as i beleive that testing the tested is just wasting valuable pips to the demo collector live makes you think harder)
looks like there is lots of pips to be made

question have you found it better changing the SL to 50% has the win loss picture changed

maybe even the no of pips gained increased or still aprox the same (retorical )

is it just better on mind

will be trading this with g/u and g/y taking all profit at 168 fib un decided fuly on stop loss can any one answer thi puzzle
  • #596
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:59am Jun 6, 2009 12:59am
WHAUW.....11 hrs later and I finally made it to the end of this thread.
Now getting it all functioning on my charts and in my head, lol.

Paulus, hope you had a SUPER vacation, mate !!!
  • #597
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:55am Jun 6, 2009 7:55am
Maybe Im just being greedy, but can anyone tell me if I'm being too conservative with the placing of my entry and SL?

I'm really talking about spreads of course, because for the long order, having
1. a (Long) entry level which is 100% fib plus bid/offfer spd plus 10bp;
2. a SL (for the long order) of 50% fib less 10bp; and
3. a TP of 168.% fib

means I'm typically having reward:risk ratios of about 60%, but sometimes it's less than 50%.

At face value trading on a RR ratio of less than 1:2 doesn't make sense to me as even a hit rate of 2 wins out of 3 means you will lose money (assuming all trades carry equal weight). Part of me wants to filter out those fx pairs that result in a RR of less than 50%.

Any thoughts guys? Many thanks in advance.
There's nothing new in trading. You buy, you sell, that's it....
  • #598
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:35am Jun 6, 2009 8:35am
Quoting GeigerB
I agree Paulus is great.

I think I will, like you Kos, adopt the 161.8 TP and 50% SL as that will reduce the pips at risk and hence improve risk/reward to much closer to 1.0 (after covering bid/offer spread and the 10pip adjustment for false breakouts).

I too placed an EJ order today (actually an OCO order) and my trade worked as planned, but I did notice and ridiculously large spike in the 2:35pm London Time 5 min candle, where the open/close/high were the same (137.61) but the low was 128. 38 - some 920pips lower!!

Maybe it had something...
Hi mate,

you are thinking right, that setting is optimal cos the risk reward is beautiful.

as for the EJ been deleted, it is still ridiculous to me. It would have been a very successful trade, anyway na dem know

kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #599
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:46am Jun 6, 2009 10:46am
Quoting Kosomolate
Hi mate,

you are thinking right, that setting is optimal cos the risk reward is beautiful.

as for the EJ been deleted, it is still ridiculous to me. It would have been a very successful trade, anyway na dem know

kos
Thanks 4 the response mate, good to know someone thinks that my thinking process isn't off-key!

Nice one bretheren...
There's nothing new in trading. You buy, you sell, that's it....
  • #600
  • Jun 7, 2009 6:02pm Jun 7, 2009 6:02pm
I see the template, but what EA or Indicator goes with it? Do you have an EA for this system?

Quoting Paulus
This is not my idea but ,it took my fancy as I wanted an indicator used on it but the principle is sound

Take the hi low of the Asian session,I will include a indicator that does this automatically.

As the next market to open is London we want to watch any GBP spots

I have set this up on

gbpusd
gbpaud
gbpjpy
gbpcad
gbpchf
gbptry

We set a buy 10 pips above the high and a sell 10 pips below the low

Once triggered we stay in until 1 of 3 criteria is met

Our Stop is hit
Our Target is hit
The close of the day without our SL or TP being hit.

An...
Gary
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