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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,521
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:05pm Apr 19, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting black06
Please tell me you're kidding...you're a regular Bernake around here
  • #3,522
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:11pm Apr 19, 2007 8:11pm
Went long yesterday @ 236.39... ok, 136 pips

Quoting jaree
Wondering how you got 140 pips
  • #3,523
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:12pm Apr 19, 2007 8:12pm
Quoting cesarnc
Out to sleep... Be back for Retail Sales + Friday Frenzy + Final Bears Carnage
  • #3,524
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:14pm Apr 19, 2007 8:14pm
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised at another test of 235 before the final run up.
  • #3,525
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:17pm Apr 19, 2007 8:17pm
You're the man cesarnc!

Quoting cesarnc
  • #3,526
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:18pm Apr 19, 2007 8:18pm
Quoting black06
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised at another test of 235 before the final run up.
the market will not listen to you it is hoping against hope just go long right now and watch your account growing and growing everyday onwards!
  • #3,527
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:22pm Apr 19, 2007 8:22pm
aha or you can get the same situation like on FEB27 drop to 221......
  • #3,528
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:24pm Apr 19, 2007 8:24pm
Yeah I thought that a few days ago & got burned lol. If it retraces some I'll jump back in tonight, otherwise enjoy the run up!

Quoting 4x_Trader
the market will not listen to you it is hoping against hope just go long right now and watch your account growing and growing everyday onwards!
  • #3,529
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:31pm Apr 19, 2007 8:31pm
Quoting Vitaliy
aha or you can get the same situation like on FEB27 drop to 221......
It will never happen my friend the situation right now is very much different from last feb 27 where the G7 are airing their problem re carry trades unlike the last meeting all of them are saying that "let the market decide on its own rate" so manipulator back off!!!:
  • #3,530
  • Apr 19, 2007 9:06pm Apr 19, 2007 9:06pm
GJ has been really easy to trade for the past 2 months...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,531
  • Apr 19, 2007 9:13pm Apr 19, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting jest1081
GJ has been really easy to trade for the past 2 months...
So...what are your thoughts - longs or do we see downtime?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,532
  • Apr 19, 2007 9:22pm Apr 19, 2007 9:22pm
technically, they are still intact...for me.

fundamentally overbought, and reeks of inflated prices. Not that it won't do any good but im sure there will be intervention inflated prices are not good for the british econ, some people might have a differing view but this psychological level will drive many small buyer to take ownership of the pound, and i have a feeling the big boys will slowly unload to the these people, so expect dip and bounce.

Currently we are seeing alot of speculation, the voaltility is crazy!
Its like playing bait...the big boys hover the prices, catch the small fish like us and unwinds. We are at heavy resistance areas...i'm not sure if price is fundamentally sound right now. All i see is heavy volatility with no proper direction.
  • #3,533
  • Apr 19, 2007 9:55pm Apr 19, 2007 9:55pm
The yen steadied on Friday after U.S. share prices managed to hold up despite sharp drops in other stock markets on worries about an overheating Chinese economy, calming fears of a massive unwinding of yen carry trades.
The yen rose broadly on Thursday after strong Chinese economic growth data triggered fears of interest rate hikes, hitting Asian stock markets and prompting investors to cut back on short positions in the Japanese currency.
But the Japanese currency trimmed gains in U.S. trade on Thursday as the Dow posted a record closing high for a second day in a row.
"Movements in stock markets continue to be the main factor in the currency market, although the Dow's solid performance overnight soothed worries about yen carry trades a bit," said
Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager at Okasan Securities.
In the carry trade, investors borrow the low-yielding Japanese currency to buy higher-yielding assets abroad.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,534
  • Apr 19, 2007 10:12pm Apr 19, 2007 10:12pm
sitting with crossed fingers .... and .... praying for the spike down at retail sales ....
  • #3,535
  • Apr 19, 2007 10:29pm Apr 19, 2007 10:29pm
Quoting Vitaliy
sitting with crossed fingers .... and .... praying for the spike down at retail sales ....
sorry to say, but that is NOT a good investment stragety
  • #3,536
  • Apr 19, 2007 10:40pm Apr 19, 2007 10:40pm
hey jest,

if the rumors are that the retail numbers will be really bad, there is no way they will hike rates, which intelligent people would say a huge drop in the carry trade, right??? or will the yen be manipulated to go to 120 or so just to keep it at this level or even higher?? if the usd is so weak against the yen, how can it be at 118, it should be at 100 if their economy is so good and they have to hike rates. would be cool to make a couple thousand pips in the crash, but i know intelligent people are not running this market, just the escapees from the looney bin!!!
  • #3,537
  • Apr 19, 2007 10:45pm Apr 19, 2007 10:45pm
Quoting bmwboyee
sorry to say, but that is NOT a good investment stragety
well a little bit too late for the "good strategies" ... getting ready to close my order with 120 pip loss ....
  • #3,538
  • Edited 11:05pm Apr 19, 2007 10:53pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting Vitaliy
well a little bit too late for the "good strategies" ... getting ready to close my order with 120 pip loss ....

You are short?


Chunnel may cause problems for gbp based pairs, weakness coming on soon,gbp strength across the board?
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,539
  • Edited 11:15pm Apr 19, 2007 11:04pm | Edited 11:15pm
Quoting mtrmth
hey jest,

if the rumors are that the retail numbers will be really bad, there is no way they will hike rates, which intelligent people would say a huge drop in the carry trade, right??? or will the yen be manipulated to go to 120 or so just to keep it at this level or even higher?? if the usd is so weak against the yen, how can it be at 118, it should be at 100 if their economy is so good and they have to hike rates. would be cool to make a couple thousand pips in the crash, but i know intelligent people are not running this market, just the escapees from the looney bin!!!
Truthfully, we will not know what will happen in the future. What makes you so sure the rates will be going up in the first place? How good can the forecasting be? Looking at History, BOE has done alot of crazy things with rates. Immediete price action during news is not where i play my trading game, it has become such a farce, the volume is so huge that the only fundamental thing abt it is the numbers coming out at that time...period. I personally feel that even if the rates are to be hiked upwards, it would have been priced in already and news leak shared between the people up there on highly traded pairs are a norm. The real fundamental would be looking at what are the averse effects it has on global economy if pound keeps going up?

Europe - bullish
US - bearish
Asia
- Jpy has a bullish econ but pegging down due to trade competetion
- China limiting surplus due to growth bubble,

somehow or rather one cycle has to end and US being one of the most important pivots to world economies, one can only guess...
  • #3,540
  • Apr 19, 2007 11:10pm Apr 19, 2007 11:10pm
Quoting OrionsWay
You are short?


Chunnel may cause problems for gbp based pairs, weakness coming on soon,gbp strength across the board?

go ahead short now cry later
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