The Secret of Magic | Forex Factory

The Secret of Magic | Forex Factory

The Secret of Magic

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Watch Closely… nothing up my sleeve…. PRESTO! In the secret world of magic there is a word for revealing its coveted secrets beyond the inner circle of history’s great artisans and disciples. It is called exposure and it is generally frowned upon in those groups. To reveal the secret of the trick is to be the spoiler, if you reveal it to the outside world. In the 1970s James Randi received criticism as well as support in exposing the methods of alleged psychic Uri Geller. Geller insists that his stunts, such as spoon bending are supernatural and not magic tricks. Consequently, Randi feels it is important to ... (full story)

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Jun 3, 2009 6:07pm

Iron-man, hope you found the missing sock (do suspect they are stolen by the mice in the middle of the night while we sleep and sold on the mice sock market as derivatives, never to be seen again)... hope the kids are settled too. And thanks for sharing your knowledge and experience.

Hardly surprising that those who do this well tend to keep to themselves.

Jun 2, 2009 5:13am

Well since 95% of americans live paycheck to paycheck regardless of income, I guess that explains the alleged 5% success rate in FX trading. So Matt, if I understand you correctly, you are saying that the only people who can trade forex effectively are people who don't really need the money, in which case why would they bother with the time required to learn the markets, to do the analysis when they could just turn their money over to an able-bodied money manager and go hang out by the pool.

Now don't get me wrong, Matt. In a round about way you elude to focus and I agree that is very important and yes if your mortgage is due tomorrow and your account is underfunded then I see the problem.

I think Jacko said it best when he said (I'm paraphrasing) one of the biggest problems facing traders today is undercapitalization.

Of course this article isn't about that now is it. It is about what moves the currencies and how traders can use that to their benefit. One piece of the puzzle that is successful trading.

As for you apparent dislike with my blog title, let me ask you this, if I inherit, sell the stuff in my attic, or sell a pilot to the networks and I earn, save or put away 10K, 20k, fill in the blank amount and I invest that in a yogurt stand and I go to work there everyday, knowing that my hardwork may pay off or not, am I working for a living? Of course I am.

Now if by the same token, I acquire similar funding and I daytrade or position trade currency with the money and I withdraw money occasionally to pay bills or invest in other things, am I trading for a living? Of course I am.

If someone wants to learn a trade and start their own business I beleive they can because I have done it. If someone wants to study financial markets and speculate for profit I believe they can do it because I do it.

Of course that's why study is so important, so those of us who trade for a living DO NOT blow up our accounts the day before the mortgage is due.

There is a simple equation I use for all endeavors, Preparation + opportunity = luck

Jun 2, 2009 6:56am

SO NTFX how is any of what you say about trading any different than going to work where 10 people have just been "Downsized" and worrying that you will be next. WOuld that effect how you do your job? You can self destruct and throw in the towel or you can buckle down and get to work. Apparently you are not familiar with having to work under pressure. Something every entrepeneur knows well. Anyone who wants to speculate the currency markets needs to count the cost of that venture and decide what their business plan will be which includes how much capital is needed and what the ROI needs to be, just like any other business. Beyond that Matt, if you feel the need to put me and my efforts down then by all means go ahead. The rest of us have trading to do so we will leave you to it.

Jun 2, 2009 7:01am

NTFX says, "Few can deal with reality-they'd much rather deal with magic and pie-in-the sky dreams. There's plenty of money to be made by selling dreams to dreamers...it's the 2nd oldest profession in the world...
Fine-let him put an asterisk on the title and then put something along the lines of "once you are capitalized to the point where you can go pay your bills when you lose" or something along those lines. I'm talking strictly about the average guy living paycheck to paycheck who may be dreaming about quitting his 9-5 to trade for a living. Forget it. The Denver guy is a perfect example of what I'm talking about-not reading, misinterpreting what I said, incomplete quoting...just not doing the homework. Few can deal with reality-they'd much rather deal with magic and pie-in-the sky dreams. There's plenty of money to be made by selling dreams to dreamers...it's the 2nd oldest profession in the world... "

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Well I don't want to miss quote you so there it is. You make a good point, that is why my trading room and chats are free and why you don't even see a google ad on my blog, because I believe in helping people. My income comes from trading, the rest is me giving back for the blessing I have received. So tell me Matt, do you still charge by the week for your trading room?

Jun 2, 2009 8:51am

And the circle goes round and round. Who among us can really afford to lose money. As I said before, if you can afford it then you don't need a job. Most of what you say in regards to being cautious, I agree with, it was the whole purpose of this article, to give traders some basic pointers they can build on. There is nothing in the article that says, "If you are not a trader, go quit your job tomorrow, slap together a couple hundred dollars and make a million next month." There is nothing in this article or any other on my blog that "sells dreams to dreamers". Honestly Matt, you seem to be living in your own reality and from what I have seen so far, it is a scary place

Jun 3, 2009 7:05pm

Jade Gate, I have lost many socks to the unknown over the years, perhaps your theory is the answer, hmmm. LOL. My oldest daughter approaches the six year old threshold in T minus 10 days and has requested potato sack races on the front lawn with her friends. Ah the care-free glory of youth! Thanks for the kind words. I try hard to help others because others have tried hard to help me at pivotal points in my life. Hopfully the success of others will be how I paid it forward. Thanks again for the encouragement!

Jun 4, 2009 12:24pm

Pricey, I agree, newbies are always doubting themselves, wait that's a blanket statement. When I started trading there were many times I doubted myself (mostly after a loss) and I am confident others have felt that way as well. I actually am putting together an article to address that. I put the meat of it together yesterday, just needs some trimmings. Thanks for the feedback.

Jun 4, 2009 7:42pm

Thanks opie999 and you are right. I suppose it is more correct to say doubt follows the first big loss and suddenly we realize, "Hey stop losses really are a required component of a successful trading plan!"

Jun 2, 2009 9:05pm

Quoting Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872

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Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.

Ignored

Quoting Western Union internal memo, 1876

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This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.

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Quoting Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895

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Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.

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Quoting Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

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There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.

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Quoting NewstraderFX, ForexFactory senior member, 2009

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I'm positive that someone with no other source of income is not going to be able to support himself and his family trading forex.

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Quoting Eden Phillpotts, English novelist, 1862-1960

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The universe is full of *magical things* patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper.

Ignored

Jun 3, 2009 9:25am

The quotes weren't meant as analogies. They were direct comparisons made to point out the fact that broad uncatagorized statements, even when given by individuals who should know better, are often wrong. Pachet, Kelvin, et al, were trying to see into the future. You sir, don't even have that excuse.

In the interest of fairness, you do get around to qualifying your statement so it applies only to individuals in certain less-than-ideal financial circumstances. But unqualified declarations such as "Trading forex for a "living" is not going to happen for *anyone*-period" are just laughable.

Jun 4, 2009 9:22am

ForexSV, read the post immediately above yours. fsiltd is also a senior member.

The message NTFX is attempting, I think, to get across to newbies is essentially a sound one. FX TRADING IS VERY RISKY! Do NOT trade with money you can't afford to flush down the nearest toilet! Do NOT trade with the grocery money or the money you've saved up for your mum's hip replacement surgery! It must be approached as a business rather than as a hobby or a pastime! *BUT* his blanket assertion that it's *impossible* for *anyone* to make a living at it is patently absurd and demonstrably false.

Difficult? Certainly. Impossible? Nonsense.

Jun 4, 2009 3:42pm

Newbies aren't *always* doubting themselves. Don't you remember a time as a rookie when you were absolutely cock-sure of every (demo) trade you made? That you could do no wrong? Boy I sure do! LOL!

BTW, your blog totally rocks. One of the very best out there.

Jun 2, 2009 7:44am — Edited

Ha Ha........"You all can't handle the truth!" It's all one big illusion with people trapped in their own sense of self looking for further means of instant gratification. *Poof* Forex! *Poof* Opinionated people! *Poof* Your broke!

Undercapitalization or whatever it is that causes failure has been rooted in desire. And desire is the cause of suffering. We all want to live a fulfilled life that has meaning with a high quality of health. So how can you blame anyone for that? Unless your willing to give it all away and stand at the edge without fear of falling.........will you be able to succeed month to month, year to year as a trader. You have to win the battle before it is ever fought.

If you use what you know for evil then you will be miserable, ultimately. If you use what you know for good, then you should never know it.

Jun 4, 2009 8:15am

I've not posted on this forum for... oh, I don't even know how many years.
(and no, it's not cause I went broke as some of you have speculated ;-P)

This little ditty has made me come out from under my, erm, keyboard one more time though.

I used to run an IT business part-time and traded (as a business) the rest of the time. I say used to, as since about June '07, I've not turned over 1 penny, not 1, through IT and Telecoms services.

I've had no choice but to "Trade for a LIVING".

Without my fx account and trading every day, I would be out on the street. My kids would be homeless and starving and my mrs., well probably would have left me by now ;-]

You can't and don't possibly know every person on the planet's situation or circumstances NTFX. So for you to make such a blatantly wild and reckless speculative statement, is just, well, stupid.
(and I used to like reading the stuff you wrote)

Yes, there is pressure. Yes it sucks at times. But again, without it, I'd be FUBAR.

So there are some of us out there my friend, that DO trade for a LIVING. (whether we like it/want to, or not :-P)

Hopefully, I won't have to do it for ever, I'm more into the capital appreciation personally, but hey, if needs must...

I'm not getting into the rest of the issues like capitalisation etc. etc., as there's really no point, seeing as your sticking point is as mundane as someones blog title saying "Trading for a LIVING".

And don't worry, you won't see me around again either.
Bye.

Jun 4, 2009 1:27am — Edited

Wow, you stirred up quite a discussion here Dave, made for interesting reading.

I really like annieb's post I think it hit the nail on the head.

I'm not sure what NTFX's problem really is? It's true that undercapitalisation is a problem and without sufficient capital it's unlikely one'll ever 'make it' (whatever that might mean).

But for him to say:
"I'm talking strictly about the average guy living paycheck to paycheck who may be dreaming about quitting his 9-5 to trade for a living. Forget it."

...the biggest problem I have with definitive statements like that is that they don't offer any alternative whilst proposing an implicit claim to holding the ultimate truth.

Experience taught me otherwise and most of all not to adopt limitations that other people have chosen for themselves or, even worse, that they want me to chose for my life.

It really appears to me as if NTFX is talking about himself and showing us his perspective on things, which is fair enough, because everybody is entitled to their opinion. But I'm not going to take it as gospel.

Whilst NTFX stopped charging $10 p.w. for his room a year ago or so, he teamed up with the lfb about a year ago and surely not for free.
Possibly even his deal with lfb went sour because I cant see them on his buddylist at present and maybe now he has to rely on his trading income alone...but that's purely speculative.
Just saying that I'd rather be careful about what people on the lovely internet (or in life in general) are telling me, cos everybody got their agenda.

In any event the point I'd like to reiterate is that it is most important to have your own judgement and not allow others to "decide for you" what is possible and what isn't.

Great article btw Dave

Jun 4, 2009 5:32am

NTFX,

I am still baffled about you going on, with the same thing in your "I'll-shove-it-down-your-throat-cos-I-think-it's-good-for-you" style.

I find ya a bit overbearing, and some comments you made to some people here seem rather rude i.e. uncool.

The way I understood Iron's article was that certain phenomena seem impossible or magic but that they are in fact perfectly plausible once you understand the laws governing them.

Ironman has at no point said to anyone to get 10k together quit their 9-5 job whilst learning to trade and make a living off it.

But you are acting as if he did. Where the heck did you get that from ? ? ?

It seems as if you are just trying to argue for arguments sake.

If you'd at least said something like: "Ok, it's all good and well but one needs at least 250K to make a decent living out of trading and be able to survive dry patches..etc." then I'd understand where you're coming from.

But you just get off on putting other people in the wrong...anyways, I think it speaks volumes about your current state.

As for Ironman, I've known him for a good while now and can only say that he's been only ever been helpful to me and a whole lot of other people.
I found him to be genuine and of a good character, who's gonna help ya to the very best of his ability. He's got my utmost respect.
Never ever patronising and no bad vibes with him, unlike with you if I may add.
Which btw is the major reason why I ultimately didn't join your site 1 or 2 years ago.

Jun 4, 2009 7:14am

Yeah, whatever mate.

My only problem with your statement is that you are saying about soemthing of which we all agree is very difficult that it is impossible.

And if you, I or any other average Joe doesn't trade for a living is proof enough for you..well, good for you.

And since you're "The Holder of the Truth" may be you can package it and sell in your room, as far as I'm concerned I had enough of that privilege cos I wouldn't come even if you paid me.

Jun 4, 2009 9:56am

Hi Ironman, I believe your post was more about S/R levels than success in trading, so I'll try to make my comment relevant for you. I'm a huge fan of NBTs, and I think this is one of the best "systems". However, it may not be for people new to trading: this requires experience, and there is no way to backtest & learn. It's also hugely discretionary, and newbies are always doubting themselves anyway. However, it's a great way to trade for the more experienced traders.

Jun 4, 2009 8:16pm

Yes, I realize I just made a blanket statement!
Ahem, I was thinking of myself and my own tendencies...

I didn't mean that newbies can't use this system, just that it takes a lot of screen-time to get good at. Also, no backtesting is possible.

Jun 2, 2009 4:36am

Famous quote from "Pursuit of Happyness" Chris Gardner
Chris: Hey. Don't ever let somebody tell you... You can't do something. Not even me. All right?
Son: All right
Chris: You got a dream... You gotta protect it. People can't do somethin' themselves, they wanna tell you you can't do it. If you want somethin', go get it. Period.

NewstraderFX:Not going to happen for anyone-period.

Now, which one do you like? We all know what Chris did. Do we all know what NTFX has achieved?

Jun 2, 2009 7:37am

Oh, so this all about the title, eh?
Not sure how this article is not talking reality - I don't see it promising "dreams", just like the brokers do - bring in $250 and take away $100000.

"So right there is an idea of the type of training you will need...deal with the
screaming wife and crying kids, deal with having little money left in your account and a whole bunch of bills due...after you do that a few times (and after moved back in with Mom), then you can start to think that you have begun to learn what trading for a living really entails."

Doesn't the above statement apply to all people and not just for traders?
Traders and everyone else need to manage such stressful situations. Just like
trading could go for a tailspin if these situations get the better of traders, it
could be the same for say a firefighter or a police officer as well. Let them
scream ice scream you scream, handle it later after business. I don't understand how only traders are affected by these problems.

An unrealistic way to avoid them and then become a successful day-trader would be do renounce this world and live/trade from a cave. Of course, you could make friends with bears!

Jun 3, 2009 2:44am

NTFX,
"Would you recommend that an average guy with no other source of income who has a wife and kids and a mortgage brush up on his poker skills, quit his job, and then play poker as a way to make his living-knowing that if he doesn't make money that month his wife and kids are out on the street?"

Absolutely not. The analogy would be an average Joe depending on a paycheck, unsure of his next month job, trying to buy a $$$,$$$ home. If he loses his job, then also he'd have all the screaming going on.

what would anyone advise Joe? Make sure you have enough savings - at least a year's worth in case he loses his paycheck. That thing applies to traders as well. Save for a substantial capital + save for a year or two expenses(mortage/rent/whatever).

I'm not sure if you still don't get it or still want to hang on to your losing position.

Jun 2, 2009 9:37am

Trout, I hear you. All this back and forth is counter productive. I wrote an article with some sound tips on how to trade the FX markets. I certainly hope they help someone. Have a great day all!

Jun 2, 2009 5:54pm

My apologies, Dave. I suppose some people would rather tear others down than support their community in a positive way. Anyway, good trading and blessings to you.

Jun 2, 2009 8:01pm

Thanks Casey. I trust the wife and new baby are doing well

Jun 3, 2009 8:43am

I lost my left sock, has anybody seen it? Oh gotta go, the kids are crying.

Jun 3, 2009 7:10pm

Denverdude, I absolutely love that movie, The Pursuit of Happiness, the scene where Chris and his son spend the night in the subway bathroom and of course the scene you quoted. Very powerful.

Jun 4, 2009 10:29pm

You guys brighten my day!

Jun 4, 2009 7:31pm — Edited

You having a bad patch Newstrader?

Jun 4, 2009 9:36pm

Quoting pricey

Disliked

...no backtesting is possible.

Ignored

Uuuhoohhhhh, another blankie staaatemennnnt...

Jun 2, 2009 4:27am

NewstraderFX

Don't hold back now - say what you really feel.

Jun 2, 2009 6:55am

Newstrade

I think it is your dealing in absolutes that is causing comment.

Jun 4, 2009 8:35am

It's a little disappointed to hear that one cannot trade for a living from an active poster and a member since September 2006 with over 900 posts... Is it the truth?

So, are there people who actually trade for a living? If you exist let us know that it's possible, please.

People who trade for a living ( the only income) let us know if it's possible or not !
thank you.

Jun 4, 2009 11:56am

Damn, another thing I can't do. OK but can I do this till I need glasses?

Jun 3, 2009 11:39am — Edited

Yea...when I was younger they often overlooked me as ballplayer, but in the end I was the only one standing...meal card, books, some tuition and eventually it paid some bills. Funny thing is, as a kid, I was never the most talented, but I always went harddd!!!!

(had to add this)
Many quit because they lacked passion and didn't believe!! Dame, you have to envision it, taste it, love it, for only then you will believe!!!

Jun 2, 2009 3:50am — Edited

Trading forex for a "living" is not going to happen for anyone-period. If you're living paycheck to paycheck and you think this is your ticket out, let's see how well you are going trade when the mortgage, tuitions, etc payments are due in a couple of days and you have a bunch of losers.

If you can pay all that stuff no matter what happens to your account, then by definition you aren't trading for a "living" since you can make your living without earning additional money from trading.

Sure, you can make money trading. But if by a "living" you're talking about trading being your sole source of income and if you don't earn money with it you're out in the street-it ain't happening. Don't even think about it.

The name of your blog might as well be "Bend Spoons With Your Mind" because that's not happening either.

Jun 2, 2009 4:29am

Maybe that applies to you, Newstrader, I'm doing nicely enough to live off as well as grow my fx account AND put some more into longer term investments. Took me few years to get it right, but it can happen. It's all a function of your mind - (read discipline)

Maybe you should read the whole article - Iron Man wrote the article with you in mind - to help you.

Jun 2, 2009 4:34am

trading for living can happen or can`t happen...
it depends on person belief only.....
if someone believes that trading for a living is not possible then he is right and he can`t do that,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Jun 2, 2009 4:51am

success in the markets still comes down to two things: cutting your losses and letting your profits run.

I heard somewhere that Goldman makes an average of 1 billion a month in trading profits. I imagine they have a lot of experience at cutting losses and letting profits run.

To quote Richard Dennis, founder and financial backer of the Turtles experiment: "There is A LOT Less here than meets the eye".

Hi Mushwedu, I love hearing that. Regardless of even knowledge and practice we have to believe that we are gifted and that we are traders! And there is not magic behind that!

Jun 2, 2009 6:12am

You're not understanding at all what I'm saying. What I mean is that if you are depending on forex to make a living-if you have no other source of income or savings and if you are out in the street if you don't make enough to pay your monthly bills-forget it. You can not, you will not, make your living by trading for the simple reason that you are not going to be able to think about how you are going to avoid being on the street and make trading decisions at the same time.

Of course you can make money trading-but that doesn't mitigate the absurd title of your blog or the fact that newbs are going to read it and start dreaming about bending spoons.

Jun 2, 2009 6:28am

Then at the end of the month, when the wife sees what happened and she starts screaming and the kids get involved...oh yeah there's a trader with a good chance to make a living trading! He's really mentally prepared for that...

So right there is an idea of the type of training you will need...deal with the screaming wife and crying kids, deal with having little money left in your account and a whole bunch of bills due...after you do that a few times (and after you've moved back in with Mom), then you can start to think that you have begun to learn what trading for a living really entails.

Jun 2, 2009 6:29am

Seems to me that the scenario you are describing is still one of undercapitalisation.

If you have to dip into working capital to survive, you are eroding your businesses future capability.. therefore making it more vulnerable to failure. Regardless of the business.

Obviously the stress associated with such a scenario will impact decision making. This is more critical to a business based on trading, as decision making is where the business creates value... but the issue remains that if drawing down on working capital is going to make a material impact on the business, then the business is undercapitalised for the endeavour it is undertaking.

One (equities) trader I know runs a forward budget, where he allocates a % of the previous years earnings as income for the following year. That is how he separates working capital from a wage. This limits the impact of short term events on his ability to perform. A bad year would surely impact his future standard of living, but that is true for any business.

Jun 2, 2009 6:38am — Edited

Fine-let him put an asterisk on the title and then put something along the lines of "once you are capitalized to the point where you can go pay your bills when you lose" or something along those lines.

I'm talking strictly about the average guy living paycheck to paycheck who may be dreaming about quitting his 9-5 to trade for a living. Forget it.

The Denver guy is a perfect example of what I'm talking about-not reading, misinterpreting what I said, incomplete quoting...just not doing the homework.

Few can deal with reality-they'd much rather deal with magic and pie-in-the sky dreams. There's plenty of money to be made by selling dreams to dreamers...it's the 2nd oldest profession in the world...

Jun 2, 2009 8:13am — Edited

Denver-It doesn't. Of course in this economy plenty of people are vulnerable to losing their jobs and people who own their own businesses may not be doing the numbers they were doing in a better economy. But a cop or fireman has a guaranteed paycheck, pretty much.

BTW-that reminds me of a little thing called health insurance for the family which your job gives you-better figure that into your budget as well because you won't have that when you try to trade for a living.

But I'm referring to the guy living paycheck to paycheck who is dreaming about quitting to trade for a living-it isn't going to happen.

If you have several years of trading experience and plenty of cash saved up to pay your expenses AND if you have a way to get your income back if you fail at trading THEN maybe you can take a shot.

I would give the same advice to someone with a secure job, benefits etc who may be thinking about quitting to start their own business. Most of them fail, so be very very careful.

And no, I haven't had a trading room with a fee in over a year now, but you can follow me on twitter. It only was a $10/week subscription anyway.

If someone wants to learn to trade, fine. Keep your job, forget about making a living at it, and trade only the money you can afford to lose.

Jun 2, 2009 9:02am

Nothing like a good disagreement. I'll try to refrain form sprinkling in a little salt and stiring the pot as the Irish are so good for...

Hey Sleep! Your my Man. I'd like to sit for a spell w/ you and have a cup of tea...It is all about intentions isn't it? Which isn't so complicated, ask any judge on the bench, and they'll tell ya' the punishment is gnerally in proportion to the intention. I think it's safe to assume the BIG GUY works the same way w/ the reward in proportion to intention.

Darn ' it...I just missed a sell sig in eurjpy at 137.19 off that double top cuz I was piddling ar'nd on here...

Jun 2, 2009 3:00pm

Quoting dvdsurplus

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NewsTraderFX... Why on earth would I follow you on twitter? No wonder your room isn't active anymore.

Ignored

Because I've posted trades there from 3 weeks ago that were like +900 pips and from 5/26 that are up about 1000 pips in addition to my aussie and euro option calls that have returned like 400%?

Jun 2, 2009 8:15pm

Quoting Iron-man

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My apologies, Dave. I suppose some people would rather tear others down than support their community in a positive way. Anyway, good trading and blessings to you.

Ignored

I am being positive-I'm positive that someone with no other source of income is not going to be able to support himself and his family trading forex.

Jun 2, 2009 8:48pm

Quoting NewstraderFX

Disliked

Quoting Iron-man

Disliked

My apologies, Dave. I suppose some people would rather tear others down than support their community in a positive way. Anyway, good trading and blessings to you.

Ignored

I am being positive-I'm positive that someone with no other source of income is not going to be able to support himself and his family trading forex.

Ignored

I think the mistake you're making is shoving everybody into a box. Maybe you can't trade with that pressure, but others would thrive under it.

I speak from experience -- having played poker professionally for the last year. The swings in this silly currency market are nothing compared to it. It's all about money management and emotional control.

Jun 2, 2009 9:40pm

Quoting datugman

Disliked

I speak from experience -- having played poker professionally for the last year. The swings in this silly currency market are nothing compared to it. It's all about money management and emotional control.

Ignored

Ok, you say you're a professional poker player so I'll ask you:

Would you recommend that an average guy with no other source of income who has a wife and kids and a mortgage brush up on his poker skills, quit his job, and then play poker as a way to make his living-knowing that if he doesn't make money that month his wife and kids are out on the street?

Jun 3, 2009 1:20am

Quoting NewstraderFX

Disliked

Quoting datugman

Disliked

I speak from experience -- having played poker professionally for the last year. The swings in this silly currency market are nothing compared to it. It's all about money management and emotional control.

Ignored

Ok, you say you're a professional poker player so I'll ask you:

Would you recommend that an average guy with no other source of income who has a wife and kids and a mortgage brush up on his poker skills, quit his job, and then play poker as a way to make his living-knowing that if he doesn't make money that month his wife and kids are out on the street?

Ignored

If somebody has a statistically relevant sample size proving that they are a winning poker player and that's what they want to do, then absolutely. Would I also recommend that they have money in savings to ease them through inevitable downswings, among many other pieces of advice? Of course. But you can't make blanket statements that nobody can make a living from trading just because of fear of being out on the streets. That's absurd.

Jun 3, 2009 4:59am — Edited

Quoting denverdude

Disliked

NTFX:
"Would you recommend that an average guy with no other source of income who has a wife and kids and a mortgage brush up on his poker skills, quit his job, and then play poker as a way to make his living-knowing that if he doesn't make money that month his wife and kids are out on the street?"

Absolutely not.

Ignored

Exactly my point. And aside from that, no one in their right mind with a family to support is going to quit their job and do it anyway. The amount of money you would need to take on this endeavor is beyond the reach of anyone working paycheck to paycheck-so the point is moot.

There is no losing position-I'm sitting here with 4 aces in my hand. Do you think I'm throwing my cards in because a few people are of the opinion that I'm going to lose? Besides, they're not paying the mortgage, health insurance, kids tuition etc with their forex winnings anyway.

Jun 3, 2009 5:02am

These are what's known as facile analogies:

[quote=opie999;2774379]

Quoting Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872

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Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.

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Quoting Western Union internal memo, 1876

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This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.

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Quoting Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895

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Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.

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Quoting Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

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There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.

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Quoting NewstraderFX, ForexFactory senior member, 2009

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I'm positive that someone with no other source of income is not going to be able to support himself and his family trading forex.

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Jun 3, 2009 11:46am

It isn't. You are not going to trade forex for a living if it is your only source of income and you are out on the street if you don't produce. Therefore, there is no such thing as trading forex for a living. Give it up. It ain't gonna happen.

Jun 3, 2009 1:36pm

...the dreamstealers...think about why you came into Fx in the first place, someone sold u a dream...at times its a nightmare, but yet we all still...still...plug away. Why?
Do you think it's a personality trait? The average Joe has never heard of Fx, yet the average forex trader has to deal with traits/weaknesses within ourselves that are naturally attracted to the element of risk. Discipline, perseverance and endurance are typical strengths of people who put money in building societies and low risk investments and have jobs that are 9-5, always have and always will- not the type of people who say, yeah, I think the $ is going to rise against the yen, so I'll just put some money on it...If i'm right I stand to gain big, wrong lose big.
Fx is so tangible...if only.
Think the most dispiriting time for me was reading all these people's journals who had done the time, finally managed to be right more that they were wrong, and it was working dream within grasp, then completely lost it after the long $ bear run ended. IA trend is so forgiving, wish I knew that then, do now tho.
I think there is an element of both points of view reqd. If u were seriusly capitalised, Fx would be an accessory to what u do to maintain capital. You cannot trade Fx as a source of income and learn at the same time. Simliarly market curve balls teach u that u cannot just compound either, as when losing streak hits u lose more.
But you'd be nuts to enter with serious money when u haven't a clue what ur doing. So u start small, not to anticipate being a zillionaire from starting account, but to get to the stage of having consistency, then drip some more money into it, till u do reach the stage of having enough to make money thus have the choice to take income from it...takes a lot longer than the initial investment to the guru who sells the dream, but hey what have you lost, in my case, chicken feed, all the while playing this marvellous game till you make it or break.
Opie feeds the dream, why can it not be me/you? Ok odds are against, it's a mental sport, but working for a living without dreams and hopes doesn't wholly complete (me) either. Newstrader I'm not giving it up...yet...

Jun 3, 2009 3:12pm

Quoting opie999

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The quotes weren't meant as analogies. They were direct comparisons

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Are you as deft with trading as you are with English? An analogy IS a comparison.

Trading for a "living" by definition means it's your only source of income (you lose and the family is in the street). You're not trading forex as a living under those circumstances. Forget it.

Keep your day job, or whatever your source of support is, and then trade. I'm not saying under those circumstances you can't make money-you may make a lot. Just don't put that kind of pressure on yourself. Don't think about trading it for a living.

Jun 4, 2009 4:50am — Edited

The only agenda I have is as follows:

It's dangerous for someone to start thinking they are going to trade forex for a living and make that their sole source of income.

That doesn't mean you can't learn to trade-you absolutely can. And you can make money trading forex. Perhaps a lot.

It's just that placing that much pressure on yourself, the pressure to pay for all the bills that support your family with income derived soley from trading forex, is going to make things incredibly difficult.

I personally found the title of Iron's blog to be an irresponsible representation of what is realistic and I have a very strong opinion about that. That hasn't changed.

If you are looking to make forex the support of your family as your sole source of income-forget it-it isn't going to happen.

If you have other sources of income-if you live with your parents, are independently wealthy, are planning to keep your job, etc, then by definition you aren't trading for a living.

Under that circumstance, go ahead and learn to trade. You have every chance of doing well. Trade only with money you can afford to lose, i.e. all your bills and responsibilities will be met even if you lose your entire forex budget.

So by all means do make your own decision-decide to place the security of you and your family at risk (which is what trading for a living means), or decide to trade so that when you lose that security is not at risk. Good luck.

Jun 4, 2009 6:16am

I got it from the title of his blog, which is "trade forex for a living."

He's not trading forex for a living, you're not trading forex for a living, and I'm not trading forex for a living. No one is. Not if a person's sole source of income is derived from trading forex, which is what trading forex for a living means.

Anyone who is interested in realty will find what I said very helpful. The dreamers who just had cold water thrown on their dream, they'll find it helpful too, just at a later point than those interested in reality.

Jun 4, 2009 7:49am

I'm not looking to sell anything. No one is going to trade forex for a living with income derived from that as their sole source of support for themselves and their families.

That's what the reality is.

I didn't expect that anyone who wishes to hold onto this absurd dream was going to be happy with the cold water I've thrown on it, but I'm willing to risk pissing off a few people with the long term objective of helping those persons who prefer to know what reality is.

Jun 2, 2009 1:47pm

NewsTraderFX... Why on earth would I follow you on twitter? No wonder your room isn't active anymore.

Jun 2, 2009 5:18am

^^ Agreed.

Undercapitalisation is a killer for any business. Trading is no different... its just a lot easier to get finance for it then say.. a yoghurt stand

Jun 2, 2009 9:34am

I know-reality is scary. That's why the anti depressant/anti anxiety pharma industry is a multi $billion enterprise.

Jun 2, 2009 1:20pm

That's a good article, but the question is whether those people are making a "living" i.e. if they don't make a profit that month they can't pay their bills.

Jun 2, 2009 1:24pm

In the meantime, if memory serves me, I seem to remember a post that Jay made several weeks ago regarding the pound at 1.65 or 1.66. You go trader!!

Jun 2, 2009 4:19pm

wow - this thread rapidly became incredibly annoying - not the initial article though

Jun 2, 2009 6:25pm

Ask someone who worked for a dealer. Trust me, they know VERY well.

Jun 2, 2009 7:52pm

Great article Ironman, Thanks for posting.

Jun 3, 2009 1:44pm

That was very interesting.

I can tell you that of course you can make money trading forex-sometimes a lot. It just isn't something that can be used to make a living.

Jun 3, 2009 2:11pm

I agree to an extent (says me while the fixed salary is very, very much a requisite) yet where would the world be without entrepenurial (sic) spirit?

Jun 3, 2009 2:28pm

Entrepreneurial spirit is fine, it's just a question of the right time and place.

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Jun 1, 2009 9:34pm
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