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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,741
  • Apr 25, 2007 7:12am Apr 25, 2007 7:12am
Great to see old members back to the thread!
Can anyone help me with my dilemma? I am deeply in backtesting now, so I observed that if you move your stop loss to breakeven it is often hit and the price proceeds to your profit terget, so all you have is 0 or just some pips. On the other hand it protects your account if the price goes against you. So my dilemma is: to move your SL to b/e as soon as possible and be happy with a few pips, or let the trade drive and take either the full profit or the full loss? How do you people do with your trades? Thanks in advance for answers.
  • #3,742
  • Apr 25, 2007 7:57am Apr 25, 2007 7:57am
Anyone else seeing a round top forming on the EURUSD? Time for a short perhaps?


P.S. And a mini RT on the GBPUSD too?
  • #3,743
  • Apr 25, 2007 8:03am Apr 25, 2007 8:03am
Shard:

I see it as trying to form. Existing home sales come out at 9am. That will either help it out or keep the bull running. Wait for the the news....
  • #3,744
  • Apr 25, 2007 8:13am Apr 25, 2007 8:13am
Quoting ramrocket
Hi Pips, it's a stand alone windows program. You don't need anything else to run it.

Enjoy!

Ramrocket,

I PM'd you asking for the program. Did you receive it?
  • #3,745
  • Apr 25, 2007 8:18am Apr 25, 2007 8:18am
Quoting Palmer
Shard:

I see it as trying to form. Existing home sales come out at 9am. That will either help it out or keep the bull running. Wait for the the news....
Makes sense, let's wait and see...

Thanks.
  • #3,746
  • Apr 25, 2007 8:31am Apr 25, 2007 8:31am
Quoting tamkras
Interesting pair gbp/chf is... I've been looking at it for the past 2 weeks through MACD glasses - they had minimum distortion so far. Judge for yourself. So, will try out with a small lot. Just a complimentary trade for the sake of MACD extension...
Looks like this pair has been testing the 89 (4hr)TF. Five times since the end of March.
  • #3,747
  • Apr 25, 2007 9:38am Apr 25, 2007 9:38am
Quoting ira
Great to see old members back to the thread!
Can anyone help me with my dilemma? I am deeply in backtesting now, so I observed that if you move your stop loss to breakeven it is often hit and the price proceeds to your profit terget, so all you have is 0 or just some pips. On the other hand it protects your account if the price goes against you. So my dilemma is: to move your SL to b/e as soon as possible and be happy with a few pips, or let the trade drive and take either the full profit or the full loss? How do you people do with your trades? Thanks in advance for answers.
If you use a Risk:Reward ratio of at least 1:1 and do ten trades with one currency you will have at least 6 right and 4 wrong. Backtesting have shown better results. If you can manage just one of the wrongs out at BE you will gain 0Risk:1Reward. You will add one winner and subtract one loser. I only set to breakeven when I already have taken partial profit or when I am convinced that a trade is most definitely going to go against me.(News that came out etc.) By doing that constantly I get that one move per week or month that bring in the big fish while catching one here and there and lose some and breakeven some. It is not about making money with every trade. It is by having your line in the water for the big one. You are not going to catch it when your bait is not in the water.

Questions :
1. Are price at historical highs
2. Did it hit a 5 year trendline
3. Is there news out that supports the current move
4. Is the market due for a big correction.

This is only a few that can influence your dicision in terms of letting a price run till it takes out your stoploss. Let me put it this way. When a market has run 600 pips up and has hit all 4 questions above, surely I will be willing to sacrifice a stop of 50 pips each in 2 seperate deals going short when the signal is given because the reward is going to be twice that. Even if you make 2 wrong decisions not timing it well the 3rd one brings 200+ pips you are in the green.
Where price are in terms of closeby and longterm support and resistance all play a roll. When you enter an uptrend that has allready run 300pips you must know that it can turnaround. Then I will be looking for quick 20 or so pips gain for 50% of my position and the rest set at BE. If it goes in my favour I smile. If it does not I smile. It did not catch me with my pants down. When I expect that big move, then I am willing to sacrifice more. Even re-enter after a false signal when another signal is given.

Look at the Chart and listen to the MP3.
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  • #3,748
  • Apr 25, 2007 10:20am Apr 25, 2007 10:20am
Quoting smnitro1
Looks like this pair has been testing the 89 (4hr)TF. Five times since the end of March.
It is working out well so far - 50 pips up. That tail in the morning (was it the afternews earthquake?) almost killed my small position. Since I have just 1 (experimental) lot I will keep it so far. USD/JPY is still under the shield - neither her nor there...
  • #3,749
  • Apr 25, 2007 10:46am Apr 25, 2007 10:46am
Quoting tamkras
It is working out well so far - 50 pips up. That tail in the morning (was it the afternews earthquake?) almost killed my small position. Since I have just 1 (experimental) lot I will keep it so far. USD/JPY is still under the shield - neither her nor there...
Yippppeee! I hear the roar of a piggy!

As always...Great Job, Tam!
  • #3,750
  • Apr 25, 2007 10:54am Apr 25, 2007 10:54am
Phillip,

Thank you again for a great post on protecting profit and positioning ourselves for the opportunity for large moves in the market! You are a very wise man, and a great teacher.

Thanks also to all the wonderful traders on this thread! You all have contributed so much to our growth as traders. Wow!! Have I seen growth in everyone over the last few months w/their analysis

And Palmer...You get a special thanks...for wisdom and laughter! You often make my day w/your posts.

One more...in case he's lurking...Dire...I hope you are making many many pips! Know you are busy....but I never thanked you for your interesting observation of oscillation w/in the market. Made me think of Physics and how it relates to the market... the laws of inertia...won't even get in to entropy formula's in relation to price (LOL).
  • #3,751
  • Apr 25, 2007 11:06am Apr 25, 2007 11:06am
Quoting chandsen
Hi,

Panther-Trader posted it some time ago. I am wondering why no one seems to use it. It is a great help to get a quick overview. Here it is:

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=3433
Hi Chandsen,

I tried this on Version Build 202 and it did an illegal operation.
I tried it again now on the upgraded version Build 203 and it seems working well.
Thank you for reminding us about it and for Panther-Trader for creating and posting it

Hani
  • #3,752
  • Apr 25, 2007 11:09am Apr 25, 2007 11:09am
Quoting O'Zeeke
Hi Pips, hope your trades are going well. I have a question about the trendlines on yuor MACd , are those a indicator, or did you draw them ?and how do you read them. Thanks for ALL your help. I may have missed this in one of your previous posts, but Palmers rap got me so distracted i pulled out my guitar and started playing and forgot to ask this earlier. BTW Palmer GREAT stuff!
Hi O'Zeeke,

Thank you for the good vibes on my trades! So far so good...hope you are having similar/better results!

The lines on MACD are trendlines...I draw them from the begining of a recent move. They seem to help me anticipate TC or RT/RB. If the bar closes below the trendline it seems to continue through zero. Also, makes it very easy to spot Divergence (both regular and hidden). Just another way to help me spot the emotion of the market. & everything on my chart is done manually; not very scientific...just eyeball and draw (LOL).

Thanks again, too, for all your wonderful input on this thread. I really enjoy reading your posts and seeing that you are finishing positive pretty consistently nowadays! You Rock (I've been dying to say that ever since Palmer's stuck in the 80's post)

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #3,753
  • Apr 25, 2007 11:35am Apr 25, 2007 11:35am
Hi I took the RT at 1.3647, with a SL 1.3673 and a first target of 1.3620

Any comments??

thanks
Ignacio
  • #3,754
  • Apr 25, 2007 11:41am Apr 25, 2007 11:41am
Still Waiting............................. I'm being very patient.....................Feel like humming that tune from, Hmm, Jepoardy. LOL Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..........

WILL SOMEONE GIVE IT A PUSH!!!!!!!

How am I doing Donna?


J
  • #3,755
  • Apr 25, 2007 12:07pm Apr 25, 2007 12:07pm
Phillip, you say price has hit the 21ema. Are you referring to the 1hr chart?
  • #3,756
  • Edited 4:16pm Apr 25, 2007 3:59pm | Edited 4:16pm
My first trade opinion here using MACD System.
All the trades I say here are real.

I short already at 161.92
I have a order Short at 162.17. SL 162.57.
First T/P at 161.47, Second at 161.27.

Wish me luck guys.

ALL THE BEST
MIKE
  • #3,757
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:16pm Apr 25, 2007 4:16pm
I just wanted to drop by and say hello to all the wonderful members of this forum. I have retired to the dailies and currently testing this method in this time frame.

The backtesting is promising. Not as many pips as the 4 hours, but much more relaxed.
  • #3,758
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:21pm Apr 25, 2007 4:21pm
Hi B2L:

Good luck on your short!

Did Your 4 hour MACD give a short? I see it on the 1 hour, but my 4 hour hasn't signaled yet (my last two bars are exactly the same..guess that's a result of the different closing times).

I really like your stop and TP's...Just me...see we have the same way to figure stops . Actually, I really like your trade!

May you get many pips...and good job on reading through the forum...hope your eyes aren't too sore. Also, your english is very good...much better than my portugese!

Happy Trading

Pips

I know your screen name is a play on words...but I wish you could change it to bored2win! big believer in thoughts = actions...and I keep reading your name as Born2Lose...and it upsets me....hope you don't mind the comment (it just sort of disturbs me, not that it matters....).
  • #3,759
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:29pm Apr 25, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting hard1head1
Still Waiting............................. I'm being very patient.....................Feel like humming that tune from, Hmm, Jepoardy. LOL Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..........

WILL SOMEONE GIVE IT A PUSH!!!!!!!

How am I doing Donna?


J
Good Job, Jim....Stay away from Geppy right now! There is nothing there except heartache! Look how small the MACD signals are. I'm pushing it...but it's not budging! No entry now, k? Keep humming.....maybe tomorrow...or tonight...? Remember the motto: "Why do I want to get involved in a Messed up market? I DON'T!" Other pairs are giving much better signals...It could give you pips, but why chance it on a lucky click that will stress you out? It is OK to leave pips on the table...You are already up over 122 this week...Keep those pips in the account...!!
  • #3,760
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:33pm Apr 25, 2007 4:33pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi B2L:

Good luck on your short!

Did Your 4 hour MACD give a short? I see it on the 1 hour, but my 4 hour hasn't signaled yet (my last two bars are exactly the same..guess that's a result of the different closing times).

I really like your stop and TP's...Just me...see we have the same way to figure stops . Actually, I really like your trade!

May you get many pips...and good job on reading through the forum...hope your eyes aren't too sore. Also, your english is very good...much better than my portugese!

Happy Trading

Pips

I know your screen name is a play on words...but I wish you could change it to bored2win! big believer in thoughts = actions...and I keep reading your name as Born2Lose...and it upsets me....hope you don't mind the comment (it just sort of disturbs me, not that it matters....).
Many Thanks Pips,

Until I discovered this method I have loosed 50% of my account in 20 Days.
Then I take a pause to learn all about this great method, a BIG gift from Phillip, then If I can win more than loose, I'll change the nick

My 4Hour MACD it is given a small signal, but I think 162.00 will be a strong R1 at least for now.

bye

MIKE
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