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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #180,141
  • May 31, 2009 9:20am May 31, 2009 9:20am
Quoting Scrat
anything is possible. i posted two charts:

first one is jpy - globex (COT report). see how large traders (green line in the lower window) are starting to position: long yen. look at the last 2 candles - it seems to me that yens are being bought, and that means */yen pairs will go down at some point.

in terms of what will happen with g-j, well, i would expect another attempt at breaking last high but not before a retracement. second chart shows my expected target - 152.35 (38.2 fibo) before another possible rally. it may go lower - 151.30 (50...
wonderful charts buddy! but aren't you worried about commercial positions on yen?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #180,142
  • May 31, 2009 9:22am May 31, 2009 9:22am
Quoting StarChild
Thanks..and I care
hope it helps! .. i guess i'm gonna join, there will be something new to learn!
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #180,143
  • May 31, 2009 9:30am May 31, 2009 9:30am
Thank's Andrew..working with it
Quoting Andrew Vu
Hello,
I did not use this indy, but I just realized that it has potential and some visual alerts. Recently, I just pay attention to bollinger bands. It looks like work well with channel and other indies. Please give a try.

I had attached here two comparison, 1. with RSX (I modifed) and other with legacy RSI ( not smooth). You need to pay attention to the green line when it touches the bollinger blue either top / bottom (short/long), if it does touches, then you have a good chance to short or long. I had circled in the picture.

So, please do...
  • #180,144
  • May 31, 2009 9:31am May 31, 2009 9:31am
Quoting currencyexch
I think we get some correction here as the 1 hr candle patter might indicate. IN short term 154.15-30 will need to be tested 154.55 pretty good resistancce on 15m Ichimoku cloud. My inclination is to go short for 150 pips. I agree that we will probably see a break over 156 before a possible big move down to 148.00 145 MY UTL on daily is currently 165
Let see how she play with this Monday where she wanna close?...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yup.JPG Size: 84 KB
  • #180,145
  • May 31, 2009 9:35am May 31, 2009 9:35am
Quoting azibi
I think I have a very good book for you (for free). If interested PM me as I don't want to spam.
And me too pls. Thx
  • #180,146
  • May 31, 2009 9:40am May 31, 2009 9:40am
Quoting Scrat
anything is possible. i posted two charts:

first one is jpy - globex (COT report). see how large traders (green line in the lower window) are starting to position: long yen. look at the last 2 candles - it seems to me that yens are being bought, and that means */yen pairs will go down at some point.

in terms of what will happen with g-j, well, i would expect another attempt at breaking last high but not before a retracement. second chart shows my expected target - 152.35 (38.2 fibo) before another possible rally. it may go lower - 151.30 (50...
am agreed with you...unless that LTL ~ 146 area break..then tanking along with captain sycho is on the way...but look at the possibility of current situition..anything possible atm....
  • #180,147
  • Edited 10:17am May 31, 2009 9:53am | Edited 10:17am
Thanks Scrat for sharing your charts...I see the same thing for retracement before testing the 38.2%(156.00 zone) again...I am still bullish overall on the weekly TF.I have the 146.00 support zone as my weekly LTL before another run for the 156.00 zone if the PA drop this week.

I am still in a short position from friday..

Trade your charts.



Also, my daily UJ is screaming short...Look at the possible H&S formation


Quoting Scrat
anything is possible. i posted two charts:

first one is jpy - globex (COT report). see how large traders (green line in the lower window) are starting to position: long yen. look at the last 2 candles - it seems to me that yens are being bought, and that means */yen pairs will go down at some point.

in terms of what will happen with g-j, well, i would expect another attempt at breaking last high but not before a retracement. second chart shows my expected target - 152.35 (38.2 fibo) before another possible rally. it may go lower - 151.30...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklygj1.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyUJ.png Size: 87 KB
[
  • #180,148
  • May 31, 2009 10:03am May 31, 2009 10:03am
Quoting donfriday
sup mate...it's me fxdon...how are u doing?
Doing very well and u? . Hope the weekend has been good to you?
  • #180,149
  • May 31, 2009 10:11am May 31, 2009 10:11am
Quoting LuckyRoost
FWIW --It's taken me a long time to learn that when your up 20, 50 100 pips--CLOSE THE TRADE... I have only had a few trades go completely wrong-- But I loose more by not closing winners- then trades that just start off bad. Now I have a stupid rule in my head-- if the trade is up 3% or more of my acct balance I close the trade no matter what... I can always re-enter. I've been up over 400 pips in a trade (IIRC it was more than one pair too) only to close it +10 pips... GREED is MY worst enemy...

Also I live a life out of forex-- I can't count...
That is exactly what happened to me this last week when GJ was ranging, saw over 100 pips go back to breakeven several times over and over. Decided right then to go back to daytrading, after all I am always watching my chart anyway. So i could as well take 30/50 pips over and over .
  • #180,150
  • May 31, 2009 10:29am May 31, 2009 10:29am
Thanks

Quoting LuckyRoost
When a sun "appears" I start looking for opportunties to enter/exit. They are also excellent opportunities to scalp (I use an EA to assist though because PA can be quick) When trading off the 5M sometimes they only move another 10 pips sometimes they can continue 50-100 on this pair... When a "smaller" sun appears its a re-entry point for me.

My best advice is to wait til the market opens and watch how they "move from 1m to 5m to 15m to 30m to 1hr to 4hr to 1d". It's nothing more than EW. It's not a holy grail, just another tool in the box......
Work smart not hard
  • #180,151
  • Edited 11:10am May 31, 2009 10:58am | Edited 11:10am
and thanks for your views

regarding 146.xx support area: things are a little bit delicate there, i am thinking about 2 possibilities:

1) if we go with the direction of the weekly, then we can consider it up until a major swing down on daily is taken - in this case, 143.02 (which btw is the low of May). i would look for longs on any timeframes, with a stop at this level.

2) this move up on weekly is a correction and it is already OB on most oscillators. it shows a regular bearish divergence for the current swing (small white lines), and it also shows a huge hidden bearish divergence compared to previous weekly swing at 215.80 (red lines and red arrows). looking at this, i would tend to go short on any confirmed daily move going down - in this case, below 146.80... or even below last week's low at 149.54... but this is an aggressive approach as i would go against the main trend.

i choose 1)... always follow the trend until proven otherwise. the last transaction will be a loser, though...

p.s. i attached a weekly chart, it looks very nice

Quoting rgitt05
Thanks Scrat for sharing your charts...I see the same thing for retracement before testing the 38.2%(156.00 zone) again...I am still bullish overall on the weekly TF.I have the 146.00 support zone as my weekly LTL before another run for the 156.00 zone if the PA drop this week.

I am still in a short position from friday..

Trade your charts.



Also, my daily UJ is screaming short...Look at the possible H&S formation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjwk.gif Size: 19 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #180,152
  • May 31, 2009 11:27am May 31, 2009 11:27am
Excellent POV and analysis...It is great to get back the senior traders posting again..I lost faith on this board last week when wannabe traders cluttered with nonsense posts..

Great job...



The dollar index is down and oil, bonds,gold is up..

Geithner is in China now to reassure it is OK to buy USA debts..LOL

Investor concern about a record American budget deficit helped send yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to 3.74 percent on May 27, the highest level since mid-November. The 10-year note yield ended last week at 3.46 percent, little changed from a week earlier.

Treasuries have lost 5.1 percent so far this year including reinvested interest, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. The dollar has also slumped, with the Federal Reserve’s trade-weighted Major Currency Dollar index sliding 3.2 percent so far this year.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...b_E&refer=home





Quoting Scrat
and thanks for your views

regarding 146.xx support area: things are a little bit delicate there, i am thinking about 2 possibilities:

1) if we go with the direction of the weekly, then we can consider it up until a major swing down on daily is taken - in this case, 143.02 (which btw is the low of May). i would look for longs on any timeframes, with a stop at this level.

2) this move up on weekly is a correction and it is already OB on most oscillators. it shows a regular bearish divergence for the current swing (small...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bloomberg.png Size: 48 KB
[
  • #180,153
  • May 31, 2009 11:28am May 31, 2009 11:28am
Quoting arezab
...In fact there will be no difference between red pips and green pips for you. Do you know if you teach an uneducated person simply watch the screen and how to push those 3 buttons and tell him when a bar opens above this line (moving average) push the button "Buy" and when comes back down and closes below it press "close" and then push "Sell" button without telling him that this is all about money, he will make more money that most of us here...
I'm inclined to agree with you, but I must say I have spent an obscene number of hours, easily hundreds of hours developing EA's and indicators and testing and optimizing them , night after night, and after several months of backtesting various indicators and expert assistants,I have come to the sobering conclusion (and I have yet to be proven otherwise)...

whether using a moving average crossing or more complex OHLC(open, high, low, close) indicators, that , what makes for a good entry is never ever a good exit. You typically lose your winnings or just about breakeven.
  • #180,154
  • May 31, 2009 11:46am May 31, 2009 11:46am
Quoting GodfreyH
whether using a moving average crossing or more complex OHLC(open, high, low, close) indicators, that , what makes for a good entry is never ever a good exit. You typically lose your winnings or just about breakeven.
Not sure I follow you there Godfrey. Are you saying that if you were long and saw a double top rejection at strong reoccurring resistance*, then a entry and exit (or vica versa as the case would be), is not viable? Or did I just come in late and miss the point completely?


*assuming this double top held good.
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #180,155
  • May 31, 2009 12:00pm May 31, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting thewasp
Not sure I follow you there Godfrey. Are you saying that if you were long and saw a double top rejection at strong reoccurring resistance*, then a entry and exit (or vica versa as the case would be), is not viable? Or did I just come in late and miss the point completely?


*assuming this double top held good.
No, I'm saying for example, if you enter on a gann crossing, you can't exit on a recrossing of the gann. You should like Elvis, have left the building long before that.

Similarly if I enter because price closed over the 50 ema, I should exit long before price closes under the 50 ema.
  • #180,156
  • May 31, 2009 12:02pm May 31, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting rgitt05
Excellent POV and analysis...It is great to get back the senior traders posting again..I lost faith on this board last week when wannabe traders cluttered with nonsense posts..

Great job...
Is there anything wrong in being a wannabe trader? All great traders and analysts started from somewhere.

The young shall definitely grow bro, just a matter of time
  • #180,157
  • May 31, 2009 12:06pm May 31, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting GodfreyH
No, I'm saying for example, if you enter on a gann crossing, you can't exit on a recrossing of the gann. You should like Elvis, have left the building long before that.

Similarly if I enter because price closed over the 50 ema, I should exit long before price closes under the 50 ema.
.

That is true, if not one might end up giving all the pips back to the market, except of course if one waits for a pull back before exit.
However, emotions might not afford one that opportunity.
  • #180,158
  • May 31, 2009 12:06pm May 31, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting botadufig05
Doing very well and u? . Hope the weekend has been good to you?

I am doing well as usual...just working on gj for next week how it will move on some key levels.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #180,159
  • May 31, 2009 12:10pm May 31, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting donfriday
I am doing well as usual...just working on gj for next week how it will move on some key levels.
Okay bro, Wish you a pipsful trading week .

Cheers
  • #180,160
  • May 31, 2009 12:11pm May 31, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting rgitt05
Thanks Scrat for sharing your charts...I see the same thing for retracement before testing the 38.2%(156.00 zone) again...I am still bullish overall on the weekly TF.I have the 146.00 support zone as my weekly LTL before another run for the 156.00 zone if the PA drop this week.

I am still in a short position from friday..

Trade your charts.



Also, my daily UJ is screaming short...Look at the possible H&S formation



Hi mate, how was ur weekend...checkout my bias .....this is what i found on esignal but it look very interesting..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: snapshot-21.png Size: 120 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
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