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Catching the morning train

  • #41
  • May 30, 2009 10:29am May 30, 2009 10:29am
I would suggest that you read up on Directional Movement indicator and look for the subtelties over a couple of timeframes i.e. 13 period and 21 period. Look at the way the ADX moves, which is the main trend component, and also how although price falls the ADX doesn't indicate a change of trend. There are a lot of articles about this very misunderstood indicator on which I almost always rely on.
Most see it and think it is to volatile but you have to look past that.
Possibly a good topic to start a new thread.
  • #42
  • May 30, 2009 11:09am May 30, 2009 11:09am
Quoting stevecartwright
There is a well known system called "London Rush" which takes the opening range for London and then buys/sells at the breakout.
There's a few of them, BigBen, Formula 171322182723, I think they all work on the same breakout idea pretty much.
  • #43
  • May 30, 2009 11:21am May 30, 2009 11:21am
Interesting name Formula.........


Quoting pipmutt
There's a few of them, BigBen, Formula 171322182723, I think they all work on the same breakout idea pretty much.
  • #44
  • May 30, 2009 12:58pm May 30, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting stevecartwright
Interesting name Formula.........
lol, yes the vendor must have been stuck for a catchy name!

It's been adapted from the original formula slightly but it's a similar strategy to the one in this thread except it's 15 minute bars with a reference price of the close of the 7am bar UK local time, then a subsequent close above 17 for a Buy or below 13 for a Sell on Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd, above/below 22 and 18 on Usd/Jpy, and 27 and 23 on Usd/Chf (now you can see where he got the name from!). Stop I think was 30 if I remember, and take profit probably a trailing stop or whatever. Same thing on the close of the 1pm. One trade AM and one PM, no reversals, if no trade by 11am for the morning and 3pm for the afternoon then forget it and come back tomorrow.

Great for learning discipline, patience, and money management with a live strategy but I don't think it made a lot of money overall, mind you it didn't lose a lot either so that's something!
  • #45
  • May 30, 2009 6:11pm May 30, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting stevecartwright
I would suggest that you read up on Directional Movement indicator and look for the subtelties over a couple of timeframes i.e. 13 period and 21 period. Look at the way the ADX moves, which is the main trend component, and also how although price falls the ADX doesn't indicate a change of trend. There are a lot of articles about this very misunderstood indicator on which I almost always rely on.
Most see it and think it is to volatile but you have to look past that.
Possibly a good topic to start a new thread.

The rules of this method are stated in the first post. DO NOT try and optimise this system with trailing stops or indicators. Also you are going to take some losses if you cant handle that I suggest you forget trading.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #46
  • May 30, 2009 7:10pm May 30, 2009 7:10pm
This, and many other breakouts work only in trending markets, and that also strong trends, such as the one we have had in then last 2 weeks or so in eu.

Backtest this method from jan thru to april, and you will see that the losses are too great to be eventually made up by the wins.

Also, 5% risk on such a method will wipe out your account quicker than the wins can compensate the losses. A better mm would be to risk 1% on each trade, and place trades on eu, gu, usd/chf, and ej, ie if you still want to continue with this method.

I personally feel that there are better methods on ff that would be more profitable. Depends on how much time you want to put up infront of the computer.

Cheers,
K.
  • #47
  • May 30, 2009 7:43pm May 30, 2009 7:43pm
this system look like big dog and it really work good in EUR-USA
but i have some idea what if u chang it from H1 to 15M ?!! so u catch the hig so ealry and not loss much too
  • #48
  • May 30, 2009 10:09pm May 30, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting markmm

5. If price closes above then reverses below the low by 2 pips you sell 2x the first position so you basically take the loss but get in the other way which will hopefully reduce the loss/wipe it / or even get you profit. Vice-versa for the other way.
How often would you reverse? Only once or everytime it happens until 1700?
  • #49
  • May 31, 2009 3:10am May 31, 2009 3:10am
Quoting kermut
This, and many other breakouts work only in trending markets, and that also strong trends, such as the one we have had in then last 2 weeks or so in eu.

Backtest this method from jan thru to april, and you will see that the losses are too great to be eventually made up by the wins.

Also, 5% risk on such a method will wipe out your account quicker than the wins can compensate the losses. A better mm would be to risk 1% on each trade, and place trades on eu, gu, usd/chf, and ej, ie if you still want to continue with this method.

I personally...
If you backtest this it has to be done over the long term, not a few months. Also how do you know the wins in the rest of the year wont make up the losses? Do you know whats price is going to do in the next 6 months or so? I dont suggest 5% risk was just an example to show people a dollar figure, risk what you are comfortable with.

I appreciate your response and I am still backtesting this, but unless you have backtested it over 3-4 years with exact results then yours is just an opinion not backed up by fact.

No offense

Mark
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #50
  • May 31, 2009 3:11am May 31, 2009 3:11am
Quoting senda88
this system look like big dog and it really work good in EUR-USA
but i have some idea what if u chang it from H1 to 15M ?!! so u catch the hig so ealry and not loss much too
Hi senda,

Its based on 30min chart not 1hr, and I would not change it, otherwise its a different system.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #51
  • May 31, 2009 3:14am May 31, 2009 3:14am
Quoting Dan S
How often would you reverse? Only once or everytime it happens until 1700?
Only reverse once.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #52
  • May 31, 2009 3:40am May 31, 2009 3:40am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting markmm
Only reverse once.

Can you PM me with a email address, we need to discuss this method and backtesting - hopefully i can help you out a little.
  • #53
  • May 31, 2009 3:57am May 31, 2009 3:57am
Quoting MPP
Can you PM me with a email address, we need to discuss this method and backtesting - hopefully i can help you out a little.
Ok thanks MPP.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #54
  • May 31, 2009 5:05am May 31, 2009 5:05am
Quoting markmm
If you backtest this it has to be done over the long term, not a few months. Also how do you know the wins in the rest of the year wont make up the losses? Do you know whats price is going to do in the next 6 months or so? I dont suggest 5% risk was just an example to show people a dollar figure, risk what you are comfortable with.

I appreciate your response and I am still backtesting this, but unless you have backtested it over 3-4 years with exact results then yours is just an opinion not backed up by fact.
Mark, I totally agree with you. Keep up the good work.
  • #55
  • May 31, 2009 5:26am May 31, 2009 5:26am
Quoting markmm
If you backtest this it has to be done over the long term, not a few months. Also how do you know the wins in the rest of the year wont make up the losses? Do you know whats price is going to do in the next 6 months or so?...
Hello Mark,
You are absolutely correct. That is my opinion, which has been derived from reading and looking at nearly every system posted here on ff since early 2006.

At the end of the day, it is all about what you are comfortable with, I suggested you trying to back test in these particular time periods, because you will get a very good idea of how it performs in ranging periods.

I have seen methods that have been backtested for years, only to send the account into oblivion once used on live accounts.

But, if you believe it is a method worth pursuing, then good luck with your task.

Regards,
K.
  • #56
  • May 31, 2009 6:04am May 31, 2009 6:04am
Quoting markmm
The rules of this method are stated in the first post. DO NOT try and optimise this system with trailing stops or indicators. Also you are going to take some losses if you cant handle that I suggest you forget trading.
I don't think it's just a case of being able to handle losses, why allow a winning trade to go into loss in the first place, especially for a strategy like this one where apart from price there's no other indication to say the trade is right or wrong.

Most strategies can be improved on and seeing as you're still backtesting this one there's nothing to say it can't be.

When backtesting don't forget to change the reference time as clocks go back and forward....
  • #57
  • May 31, 2009 10:48am May 31, 2009 10:48am
Quoting pipmutt
I don't think it's just a case of being able to handle losses, why allow a winning trade to go into loss in the first place, especially for a strategy like this one where apart from price there's no other indication to say the trade is right or wrong.

Most strategies can be improved on and seeing as you're still backtesting this one there's nothing to say it can't be.

When backtesting don't forget to change the reference time as clocks go back and forward....
Thanks Pipmutt,

I will test it based on the rules, however I am against trying to optimise the system to historic results, If it doenst work then Ill drop it.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #58
  • Jun 3, 2009 7:46am Jun 3, 2009 7:46am
I have made some trades on real account;
The results are flowing for 3 days :

only 1 loss about 246 usd but totaly :

+577 USD or about 200 pips received.
  • #59
  • Last Post: Jun 3, 2009 8:03am Jun 3, 2009 8:03am
Quoting kaccup
I have made some trades on real account;
The results are flowing for 3 days :

only 1 loss about 246 usd but totaly :

+577 USD or about 200 pips received.
Please don't trade this with real money, its not proven on back-testing yet.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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