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Attachments: New Variation on 7 am to 9 am Breakout Strategy
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New Variation on 7 am to 9 am Breakout Strategy

  • #41
  • May 29, 2009 5:00pm May 29, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting lucashammer
I saw the same false breakout....
I was mistaken.
I was the one looking at the wrong bars.
When I looked at it correctly, there was a false breakout.
  • #42
  • May 29, 2009 6:52pm May 29, 2009 6:52pm
Hey, those fib extensions aren't the real text book fibs. Wouldn't they be 1.236, 1.382, 1.500, 1.618, and 2.000?
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #43
  • May 30, 2009 11:04am May 30, 2009 11:04am
My results since last Wednesday (When I went live with this). I will reply to everybody's questions as soon as I have some free time.

Wednesday 5/20 - (+25.6) WIN
Thursday 5/21 - (+27.0) WIN
Friday 5/22 - (-16.7) LOSS
Tuesday 5/26 - (+31) WIN
Wednesday 5/27 - (+5) BREAKEVEN
Thursday 5/28 - (+21.8) WIN
Friday 5/29 - (-13.6) LOSS

Total = (+80.1)

Notice that my totals are averages of the three trades that day instead of individual trades. If I were to list the totals of each individual "trade" with all of the TPs added together instead of averaged, it would be 240.3 pips. So, it all depends on how you look at it. So, 80 pips up so far. Time to keep going.
  • #44
  • May 30, 2009 4:33pm May 30, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting stevegee58
Hey, those fib extensions aren't the real text book fibs. Wouldn't they be 1.236, 1.382, 1.500, 1.618, and 2.000?
Not sure about the 1.236, but yes to the 1.382 and 1.618. My broker has those in it also, but I just used these to give me a good risk:reward ratio.

Morton, yes. Stop was in the correct place. That was my 13 pip loss.

As far as the price action of the previous session affecting this trading method, I'm more than open for ideas if someone wants to backtest and see if that's the common denominator of the losing trades. We're all in it to make money, right?

I think I answered all of the questions in here. If I didn't, please let me know and I'll get right on it.

Lucas
  • #45
  • May 31, 2009 11:48am May 31, 2009 11:48am
Thanks Lucashhammer,

Just a simple question...by ET do you mean EST time ( Eastern Standard Time - North America?

dohemi



Quoting lucashammer
Alright. It was suggested that I start this thread because the original dynamics of my system changed basically the entire trading system that I was originally posting on which was the 7 am to 9 am big dog breakout strategy. A good amount of the information that I will put in this thread will be taken from posts I made in that thread (which by the way is a pretty good strategy, just not quite for me). This is a more conservative trading strategy than a lot of the other strategies on here and has a pretty nice risk to reward ratio, which is 3:5 risk/reward....
  • #46
  • May 31, 2009 12:26pm May 31, 2009 12:26pm
Lucas,
I show different results for 5/21. I see that hitting tp1 then retracing and getting you out at breakeven for the remainder of the lots.
Where do we differ?

[quote=lucashammer;2767090]My results since last Wednesday (When I went live with this). I will reply to everybody's questions as soon as I have some free time.

Thursday 5/21 - (+27.0) WIN - long 1.3810, hit tp1 at 3828, retraced back so only +15 pips on half the trade, BE on rest
  • #47
  • May 31, 2009 6:10pm May 31, 2009 6:10pm
While testing this method, I decided to try having the third stop loss at around the middle of the range, rather than starting it at the 1 fib level and moving it to break even after the other take profits were hit. This will have bigger drawdowns when the price changes direction, but it also allows for the 2 fib level to be hit when price retraces slightly.

I tested this between May 11th to May 22nd, and unless I missed something (which is quite possible, my brain is fried) it seemed to allow for a higher positive pip count overall.

Does anyone else have any comments on this?

I'm planning on testing this more long term, but was wondering if anyone else has tested this and found it wasn't effective.
  • #48
  • May 31, 2009 10:32pm May 31, 2009 10:32pm
Has anyone back tested over the week of March 23rd? I don't show a single positive trade.
  • #49
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:47am Jun 1, 2009 8:47am
Hi anyone traded today, negative pips as well am i right? price almost reach tp1 by 2-3pips not including spreads.
  • #50
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:12am Jun 1, 2009 9:12am
Quoting morton82
Hi anyone traded today, negative pips as well am i right? price almost reach tp1 by 2-3pips not including spreads.
Correct, after initiating the sell order it retracted. Only lost 11.8 pips though so not too bad.
  • #51
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:24am Jun 1, 2009 9:24am
Quoting gmcl02
Correct, after initiating the sell order it retracted. Only lost 11.8 pips though so not too bad.
If you placed all 3 trades as per the setup rules, that's 35.4 pips cumulative loss. If you had divided your normal lot trade size by 3, then 11.8 isn't too bad.

I applied the system to GJ this morning, and both TP1 and TP2 have been hit. I'm in profit +36 pips from TP1 and another +79 pips on TP2 for a total of +105 pips so far. Waiting on results from 3rd order, but by moving my TP3 SL to the TP1 level, I am guaranteed another 36 pips.

So...worse case scenario is +141 pips on GJ, today.

Thanks, Lucas!
  • #52
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:30am Jun 1, 2009 9:30am
BTW, Oanda spiked their spread to 10 pips for several minutes about 1/2 hour ago. I didn't affect my trade, but it surely could have. The market wasn't moving significantly, either. This is a major cause of concern.

Oanda now incorporates a trailing stop for the first time. The option appears on the order entry screen.

Good trading!
  • #53
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:40am Jun 1, 2009 9:40am
TP3 hit @ 158.13 on Oanda

+221 pips total for all 3 trades in profit. The market only had to move 117 pips from entry to achieve the 3 wins...not especially a big move for the GJ pair.
  • #54
  • Jun 1, 2009 10:27am Jun 1, 2009 10:27am
Hi
I am based in UK. Based on this system I will be looking at 1200-1400. Is it correct?
Thanks
  • #55
  • Jun 1, 2009 1:53pm Jun 1, 2009 1:53pm
Out for 11.8 pips today. Once again, the box was over 50 pips high to low, so that might be a variable I hadn't paid enough attention to before on my losses. Still in the green (which is easy to do with a 3:5 risk:reward) but trying to improve. Has anyone done any major backtesting for any of the other pairs?
  • #56
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:10pm Jun 1, 2009 8:10pm
Today didn't have to be a total loss. If you had actually placed the stop limits again it would have been triggered and it hit TP2 allowing you to make back your pips and a little profit.

I know it's against the rules but I did it because PA didn't make a higher high so it had a chance of continuing short.
  • #57
  • Jun 1, 2009 11:07pm Jun 1, 2009 11:07pm
I tell you what, I've been experimenting with this regarding a London timeframe breakout and seems to be working extremely well. I don't want to hijack lucashammer's thread so if anyone wants to see what I've developed I'll open a new thread.
  • #58
  • Jun 1, 2009 11:11pm Jun 1, 2009 11:11pm
Quoting mer071898
I tell you what, I've been experimenting with this regarding a London timeframe breakout and seems to be working extremely well. I don't want to hijack lucashammer's thread so if anyone wants to see what I've developed I'll open a new thread.
Sounds like a good idea...I'm sure many of us will want to follow both threads in detail. Thanks for expanding the scope of this strategy.
  • #59
  • Jun 2, 2009 4:24am Jun 2, 2009 4:24am
Quoting mer071898
I tell you what, I've been experimenting with this regarding a London timeframe breakout and seems to be working extremely well. I don't want to hijack lucashammer's thread so if anyone wants to see what I've developed I'll open a new thread.
London open should be better... but this won't give much sleep for the Yankees...
  • #60
  • Jun 2, 2009 4:36am Jun 2, 2009 4:36am
Quoting mer071898
I tell you what, I've been experimenting with this regarding a London timeframe breakout and seems to be working extremely well. I don't want to hijack lucashammer's thread so if anyone wants to see what I've developed I'll open a new thread.
I would really like to see what you've done.
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