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Catching the morning train

  • #21
  • May 30, 2009 6:56am May 30, 2009 6:56am
Method sounds good but we need to find out if it has a distinct advantage, whether its better than random
  • #22
  • Edited 7:30am May 30, 2009 7:09am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting tane11
You got the time wrong,in your chart it should be 3 hours earlier.
markmm, are you saying 8am GMT or 8am UK Time? UK is now on BST (British Summer Time) which is GMT +1

InterbankFX charts are 1 hour different to BST at the moment, I'm not sure if they change them.

I've seen a similar strategy to this but using a 15m chart and different parameters, that seemed to work better by locking in some profit or using a trailing stop from break-even, it might be worth thinking about.

Also you're martingaling up after a loss which I'm not sure is such a great idea, neither is reversing if you get a close in the opposite direction to the original trade, I would think you run the risk of whipsaws.

It's a nice simple strategy though!

Just my 2c
  • #23
  • May 30, 2009 7:25am May 30, 2009 7:25am
Quoting hartnet
i think the morning train could be used to refer to the first hour of the major market opening i.e, Tokyo, London or New York. it is more straightforward to say in this way, as the opening hour could be shifting due to the daylight saving.
I agree, and it would be more relevant to what this strategy is actually looking at, traders getting to their desks and positioning themselves at market opens.
  • #24
  • May 30, 2009 7:31am May 30, 2009 7:31am
Quoting ahbinn
Oh can you explain why? I tot the time is 8 GMT ??
Brokers have different time zones,that's it.
  • #25
  • May 30, 2009 7:41am May 30, 2009 7:41am
Quoting tane11
Brokers have different time zones,that's it.
oic so you mean IBFX timing is 3 hours behind GMT? Are you mistaken or something ?
  • #26
  • May 30, 2009 8:14am May 30, 2009 8:14am
Quoting pipmutt
I agree, and it would be more relevant to what this strategy is actually looking at, traders getting to their desks and positioning themselves at market opens.

u made my day for agreeing with me ....
  • #27
  • May 30, 2009 8:19am May 30, 2009 8:19am
Quoting ahbinn
Oh can you explain why? I tot the time is 8 GMT ??
Comparing the bars Markmm put vertical lines on in the first post to my chart and changing my computer time to GMT, I found that the time he is using is actually 5 GMT to 14 GMT. So his broker must be GMT +2 and GMT does not use Daylight Savings Time or British Summer Time, thus 3 hour difference. Hope this helps.
  • #28
  • May 30, 2009 8:31am May 30, 2009 8:31am
Quoting pippocket
Comparing the bars Markmm put vertical lines on in the first post to my chart and changing my computer time to GMT, I found that the time he is using is actually 5 GMT to 14 GMT. So his broker must be GMT +2 and GMT does not use Daylight Savings Time or British Summer Time, thus 3 hour difference. Hope this helps.
Hey yes you are right! Thx pippocket, your explanation makes sense.

Thus this system actually uses GMT 5 to 14, is there any relation to london open then?
  • #29
  • May 30, 2009 8:38am May 30, 2009 8:38am
Quoting ahbinn
Hey yes you are right! Thx pippocket, your explanation makes sense.

Thus this system actually uses GMT 5 to 14, is there any relation to london open then?
Not really.
0500 is 2 hours before London open. It is 1 hour before European open.
  • #30
  • May 30, 2009 9:03am May 30, 2009 9:03am
Hi guys,

The chart I posted was using FXDD, not sure if the time is in GMT or not. But the opening time should be 08:00 GMT i.e. opening of London, this might change depending on summer time etc. I will remove the chart and put a new one up based on the correct time, apologies for the confusion. Thanks pippocket nice spot.

Mark
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #31
  • May 30, 2009 9:06am May 30, 2009 9:06am
Quoting markmm
Hi guys,

The chart I posted was using FXDD, not sure if the time is in GMT or not. But the opening time should be 08:00 GMT i.e. opening of London, this might change depending on summer time etc. I will remove the chart and put a new one up based on the correct time, apologies for the confusion. Thanks pippocket nice spot.

Mark
Right now (Summer Time), London opens at 0700 GMT.

If you want to key this to the London open, that's the time you have to use.
  • #32
  • May 30, 2009 9:11am May 30, 2009 9:11am
Quoting billbss
Right now (Summer Time), London opens at 0700 GMT.

If you want to key this to the London open, that's the time you have to use.
Hello bill,

do you think the morning train leaves at 0730GMT or 0800GMT ?
  • #33
  • May 30, 2009 9:15am May 30, 2009 9:15am
Quoting hartnet
Hello bill,

do you think the morning train leaves at 0730GMT or 0800GMT ?
I don't know.
It depends on when he wants to start looking for a breakout.

If he looks at the 30M bar that begins at 0730 GMT, he's taking the first 30 minutes of the London open.

If he uses the bar that begins at 0800 GMT, he's looking at 1 1/2 hours after London opens.


EDIT: Looking at the chart, either time will result in reversing two or three times a day, on average.
I would have to put a pencil to it, but it looks like it will whipsaw you to death.
  • #34
  • May 30, 2009 9:23am May 30, 2009 9:23am
There is some confusion over the time, my fault, I live in the UK and London opens at 8 in the morning, you are going to have to convert that to your local time, there are some good websites that can do that for you. UK uses GMT normally, except in summer when its at GMT+1, again you have to do the conversion your self.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #35
  • May 30, 2009 9:29am May 30, 2009 9:29am
Quoting pipmutt
markmm, are you saying 8am GMT or 8am UK Time? UK is now on BST (British Summer Time) which is GMT +1

InterbankFX charts are 1 hour different to BST at the moment, I'm not sure if they change them.

I've seen a similar strategy to this but using a 15m chart and different parameters, that seemed to work better by locking in some profit or using a trailing stop from break-even, it might be worth thinking about.

Also you're martingaling up after a loss which I'm not sure is such a great idea, neither is reversing if you get a close in...
Regarding the martingale thing, you are basically closing the losing trade trade then opening the new one with the same lot size as first, so if you had 1 lot buy in the losing trade then by selling 2 lots you close the 1 lot bad and open 1 lot short.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #36
  • May 30, 2009 9:46am May 30, 2009 9:46am
Quoting billbss
I don't know.
It depends on when he wants to start looking for a breakout.

If he looks at the 30M bar that begins at 0730 GMT, he's taking the first 30 minutes of the London open.

If he uses the bar that begins at 0800 GMT, he's looking at 1 1/2 hours after London opens.


EDIT: Looking at the chart, either time will result in reversing two or three times a day, on average.
I would have to put a pencil to it, but it looks like it will whipsaw you to death.
If you look through the chart you will find days like this where it will reverse twice on you, you are going to have to be able to handle a loss, but catching a biggie will more than make up for those. Use discretion i.e. stay-out in a tight ranging market.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #37
  • May 30, 2009 9:54am May 30, 2009 9:54am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...14&postcount=4

The above post has an indicator to draw vertical lines at session open and close, and the inputs have a GMT offset value, just set that to you brokers value and it will draw the lines for you.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #38
  • May 30, 2009 10:05am May 30, 2009 10:05am
Quoting markmm
If you look through the chart you will find days like this where it will reverse twice on you, you are going to have to be able to handle a loss, but catching a biggie will more than make up for those. Use discretion i.e. stay-out in a tight ranging market.
It's difficult to recognize a tight ranging market, since we're trading only 30 minutes after the market opens.

How do you propose staying out of tight ranging markets?

What indication are you using that the market is tight and ranging?

How are we to recognize this at the time we place our orders, with this method?
  • #39
  • May 30, 2009 10:19am May 30, 2009 10:19am
Quoting billbss
It's difficult to recognize a tight ranging market, since we're trading only 30 minutes after the market opens.

How do you propose staying out of tight ranging markets?

What indication are you using that the market is tight and ranging?

How are we to recognize this at the time we place our orders, with this method?
Hi billbss,

You make some good points, and one further I was thinking about is that breakouts come quite often from tight tanging periods, so I suppose you have to just play this everyday. What you are trying to catch here is a small first 30 min bar to give you a big position size then a big move up or down. Whether there are enough of these to out weigh the losses when you are whipsawed will ultimatley decide if this strategy is profitable.

I would add I am still backtesting this and so should anyone who wants to use it, or at least demo it for a few months.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #40
  • May 30, 2009 10:22am May 30, 2009 10:22am
There is a well known system called "London Rush" which takes the opening range for London and then buys/sells at the breakout. I am not going to offer anything as to the opening length of time nor any buffer above or below. But, please find a script which may help to visualise the approach. Its easy to modify the time and works ON A 5 MINUTE CHART. Please note the 5min chart.

It goes in the /script folder.
I am away for 2 weeks so may not be able to answer any queries

edit:
If you run the script you may be pleasantly surprised at how often when it breks it satys in that trend. Only using on a couple of pairs at the moment.

PS, I use a 5 minute chart to analyse price movement.
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