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Attachments: New Variation on 7 am to 9 am Breakout Strategy
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New Variation on 7 am to 9 am Breakout Strategy

  • #21
  • May 28, 2009 4:46pm May 28, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting lucashammer
This is my second Friday live. When I backtested, I didn't keep track of the specific days, just the totals of wins/losses/breakevens. I was trying not to curve-fit it. I have been trading live for a little less than two weeks with this system.
Fair enough, its well thought out, if you dont mind.....how far back did the backtest go and on what time frame were you testing it on?
  • #22
  • May 28, 2009 6:55pm May 28, 2009 6:55pm
Thanks for posting this interesting variation of a box breakout system.

Couple of questions.........
do you add spread to your long entries?
do you add spread to the stop loss for short trades?
  • #23
  • May 28, 2009 9:12pm May 28, 2009 9:12pm
Great method, nice and simple, thanks for sharing!

Just to make sure I have all the rules correct, I visually marked and backtested eurusd from 5/4 til present.
From what I can see, the following days were losers?
5/12
(looks like it came within a pip of opening the short at fib, if it opened it was a loss)

5/19 - loss
5/22 - loss

Is this correct? If one of these is not a losing day, please let me know so I can see where I am miscalulating.

Thanks again for sharing, I really like this simple breakout method.
  • #24
  • May 29, 2009 2:03am May 29, 2009 2:03am
If you look at the box range on those days, especially 5/19 & 5/22, they were well over 70+pips. What's happening is your exhausting the range and not allowing room to trade. If it were me I would limit the box range to 1/4 to 1/3 of the average daily range to limit the risk. And do not trade if the box range is over 45-50 pips maximum. Obviously, this is just an opinion and not to be construed any differently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibs.gif Size: 61 KB
  • #25
  • May 29, 2009 2:09am May 29, 2009 2:09am
lucashammer - nice, simple method.

mer071898 - smart suggestion.
  • #26
  • May 29, 2009 5:20am May 29, 2009 5:20am
Hi,

I found a nice XL sheet from another thread, which can be used to calculate the # of lots that can be traded. Once we enter the ac balance, risk %, entry, SL, TP1 and TP2, the sheet calculates the recommended lots to trade, and displays the risk/reward data. Pretty neat.

However, as of now, it shows only two TPs. I'm not an XL nerd - if anyone :nerd:can take this and modify it so that we can enter the TP3 data, it would be great

Thanks.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls ForexCalculator.xls   34 KB | 920 downloads
  • #27
  • May 29, 2009 5:23am May 29, 2009 5:23am
Quoting mer071898
If it were me I would limit the box range to 1/4 to 1/3 of the average daily range to limit the risk. And do not trade if the box range is over 45-50 pips maximum.
Good suggestion on the box limit. This was also suggested in the original strategy thread - the profitability decreases as the box size increases. Will keep an eye on that as well.
  • #28
  • May 29, 2009 8:57am May 29, 2009 8:57am
I have a Broco 4,0 demo account and would like to try this system. However, neither the fib expansion nor retracement tools are like the ones used by others in this discussion. Is it possible to modify them? Or download a fib tool? Or should I get another demo trading platform? Thanks.
  • #29
  • Edited 9:32am May 29, 2009 9:16am | Edited 9:32am
I'm in on this one, system filtered out a false break south (by about one or two pips!), looks like its ready to break upwards.

EDIT: Stopped out - perhaps friday isn't the best day for this.
  • #30
  • May 29, 2009 9:36am May 29, 2009 9:36am
Order got triggered at 4146 and i am out at -20pips. Stoploss should be at 4133 right? Or am i on the wrong path?

range for the box was like about 50pips. Maybe it was friday also. Might not be a good day to trade this.
  • #31
  • May 29, 2009 9:37am May 29, 2009 9:37am
Quoting GeoffT
I'm in on this one, system filtered out a false break south (by about one or two pips!), looks like its ready to break upwards.

EDIT: Stopped out - perhaps friday isn't the best day for this.
I was testing the same trade on my demo. You're right, Friday might not be a good day. Will keep testing.
  • #32
  • May 29, 2009 10:02am May 29, 2009 10:02am
As others have posted, today's trade was a loss.

However, its just two fridays and not sure if we can conclude based on these two days. We need to look into more samples and then decide.

If 60% of Fri trades (may be out of like 10-15 fri trades) are in the red, then I'd be wary of that stats.

Thanks.
  • #33
  • May 29, 2009 10:21am May 29, 2009 10:21am
Maybe you are looking at the wrong bars.
I traded it and there wasn't a false breakout.
  • #34
  • Edited 11:33am May 29, 2009 11:30am | Edited 11:33am
-13.6 pips today on the long. So, I also got stopped out. I see a lot of questions in here, and unfortunately I have to get to school in the next hour. This afternoon though, I will post one reply to answer all of your questions. To answer one quickly, this weekend, I'm going to try to go back and backtest only Fridays to see if it seems to be a trend due to the ranging market. I'll post what I find along with answering a lot of questions when I get back.

So totals since I started trading live last Wednesday is
5 wins
2 losses
1 break even

With a 3:5 risk/reward those are pretty decent numbers. Now to find how to raise the win % (if possible).
  • #35
  • May 29, 2009 12:19pm May 29, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting nativetexan
I was testing the same trade on my demo. You're right, Friday might not be a good day. Will keep testing.
Gentlemen the problem is not friday but the preceding price action. Any time break outs occur in london session with accompanying strong volatility, you rarely going to get good set ups because the currencies often than not have run thier daily ranges
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #36
  • May 29, 2009 12:33pm May 29, 2009 12:33pm
...................and don't forget it is end of the month today for the brokers, so squaring their books before the day is over.
  • #37
  • May 29, 2009 3:14pm May 29, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting billbss
Maybe you are looking at the wrong bars.
I traded it and there wasn't a false breakout.
Hi Bill!

Good to see you on this thread...your expertise and opinion are valuable resources for us, here!

I made my EUR/USD trades today on Oanda. My Long trade hit the SL. I don't add broker spread (only .9 pip) into box calculations, because I believe that distorts the box parameters. I don't use any box offset amount, either for the same reason. My box extends from 6:00 AM until 8:05 AM CDT.

My entries:
High Price: 1.4135
Low Price: 1.4085
Price Range: 50 pips
Max Risk: 42 pips
Max Reward: 72 pips

BUY entry: 1.4149
SL: 1.4135
TP1: 1.4160
TP2: 1.4173
TP3: 1.4185
SELL entry: 1.4071
SL: 140.85
TP1: 1.4060
TP2: 1.44047
TP3: 1.4035

I am wondering what broker you used to avoid the pullback? In addition, I also use IBFX, and all the trading parameters were within 3 pips compared to Oanda.
  • #38
  • May 29, 2009 3:39pm May 29, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting morton82
Order got triggered at 4146 and i am out at -20pips. Stoploss should be at 4133 right? Or am i on the wrong path?

range for the box was like about 50pips. Maybe it was friday also. Might not be a good day to trade this.
Morton,

Same happened to me on GBPJPY today, painfull. that reminds me of an adagium i read all over the forums;"never trade on Friday" . Well....
Now i have the weekend to digest this. Best regards, Ludo
  • #39
  • May 29, 2009 4:37pm May 29, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting billbss
Maybe you are looking at the wrong bars.
I traded it and there wasn't a false breakout.
I saw the same false breakout. Not at home right now, but based on the original 7 am to 9 am breakout strategy, it would have hit. It would have triggered the short right at the low of the box, then reversed to lose 50 pips (based on the original method). I will try to post a picture of the chart when I do get home. If someone else has their chart from today, can you post that? Basically, the reason I enter at the 1.272 fib instead of the 1.000 is in case it goes a couple of pips in that direction then reverses. Had I entered at 1.000 on my short it would have been triggered, then reversed. Didn't help that the same thing happened on my long, but oh well. That's trading.
  • #40
  • May 29, 2009 4:41pm May 29, 2009 4:41pm
Here you go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 27 KB
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