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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,361
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:23pm Apr 18, 2007 8:23pm
Did anyone see the head and shoulder formed on the 1H chart?
  • #3,362
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:50pm Apr 18, 2007 8:50pm
damn, i picked not the best spot to enter the trade, the price is 17 below daily range, mehh next time will watch it ...
  • #3,363
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:51pm Apr 18, 2007 8:51pm
Quoting trader8686
Did anyone see the head and shoulder formed on the 1H chart?
Reversal pattern, on this one, correct?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,364
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:51pm Apr 18, 2007 8:51pm
we'll watch the fireworks in 1 hour...

  • #3,365
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:59pm Apr 18, 2007 8:59pm
well, if i am not mistaken, when the pound was hiked last, it took off quite a bit, which of course sent the carry trade to the moon. of course i missed it!! with the big numbers way up for the english economy, they have to hike rates, by how much doesn't matter. that is why the pound is over 2.0. the yen is way undervalued by their govt to make sure they keep their economy robust, since they do not spend their earnings the way the west does. to be honest, the yen should be around 100, not 118. look what happened to the markets when the chinese market had that huge, unexpected drop a couple of weeks ago. most people trade fear and rumors in this market, not the numbers. really look at the numbers and tell me these value of currencies are even close!!! i hate to play rumors, but if they make me money, so be it until this market gets some sanity back!! now all someone has to do is figure out which way the market will go when the decision is made!!!
  • #3,366
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:59pm Apr 18, 2007 8:59pm
Quoting Sami7
Reversal pattern, on this one, correct?
How you think? 236.25 It is no longer a retracement, it has squeez through 236.53 (61% of fb)
  • #3,367
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:07pm Apr 18, 2007 9:07pm
Quoting trader8686
How you think? 236.25 It is no longer a retracement, it has squeez through 236.53 (61% of fb)
No, I think I was right last week. Bears are out. However, there is a long lengthy explanation that talks about misinterpreting those formations. A MACD should be included in the analysis, etc. etc., etc. And Now that it's broken the neckline well, Bears are winning.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,368
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:12pm Apr 18, 2007 9:12pm
Quoting Sami7
No, I think I was right last week. Bears are out. However, there is a long lengthy explanation that talks about misinterpreting those formations. A MACD should be included in the analysis, etc. etc., etc. And Now that it's broken the neckline well, Bears are winning.
No?
You mean No, it is not a retracement, or No, it is simply a retracement???
  • #3,369
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:22pm Apr 18, 2007 9:22pm
236.21 is the weekly pivot. Appears to be giving the pair some trouble.
  • #3,370
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:24pm Apr 18, 2007 9:24pm
Quoting trader8686
No?
You mean No, it is not a retracement, or No, it is simply a retracement???
Ok, let me clarify. I am using the 1H chart and based my fibo on the most recent move up. My target as I mentioned earlier was 263.53 which was hit. This was the 61.8% fibo mark. Once it passed the 61.8% fibo and started heading towards the 100% fibo mark, and if it gets to that level it will have retraced 100% of the most recent movement up. It is a matter of how different folks interpret their fibos. Some use the entire movement and others such as myself prefer using shorter term fibos.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,371
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:24pm Apr 18, 2007 9:24pm
yes it is a retracement ... just sit back relax and enjoy it hopefully my stupid order at 233 will close because I already have a lot in spaw ZZzzzz please buckle up your seat belts and enjoy the ride down. i'm gone to bed to my sweet, sweet pillow, to see many many many pips lol good night see u all tomorrowZZZz
  • #3,372
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:28pm Apr 18, 2007 9:28pm
too volatile...if you enter now you'd probably miss much of the move, not sure if gbpusd will trigger another move, trend has been intact for abt 1 1/2 weeks so a retracement still...for now... im tanking on the retail bringing the cable down further into consolidation. Might work out an entry for the gbpyen during US open, my strat will be biased on usd and yen, while euro market will try to bring the pound back up, i'll short the retracement down in US session carried thru the asian session. This will only happen if the euro-session retraces the pound later, hopefully they do.
  • #3,373
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:31pm Apr 18, 2007 9:31pm
Quoting Sami7
Ok, let me clarify. I am using the 1H chart and based my fibo on the most recent move up. My target as I mentioned earlier was 263.53 which was hit. This was the 61.8% fibo mark. Once it passed the 61.8% fibo and started heading towards the 100% fibo mark, and if it gets to that level it will have retraced 100% of the most recent movement up. It is a matter of how different folks interpret their fibos. Some use the entire movement and others such as myself prefer using shorter term fibos.
Sami7, Can you tell me where is your 100% fibo?
  • #3,374
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:52pm Apr 18, 2007 9:52pm
236.00 psychological support is tough to crack!
  • #3,375
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:19pm Apr 18, 2007 10:19pm
The Question is .. can the yen gains be sustained atleast to the close of the week?

Quote
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed on speculation the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates and as Asian stocks slumped, prompting traders to reduce investments in higher- yielding assets funded by borrowing the currency.
``A steep fall in Chinese stock prices is suggestive of global risk reduction in February,'' said Koichi Kano, vice president of foreign exchange in Tokyo at Citibank Inc. ``This could lead to the unwinding of yen carry trades again.''
Money: Bad Master, Best Slave
  • #3,376
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:30pm Apr 18, 2007 10:30pm
Looks like its not breaking the 236.00 line .... closing the short .. looking for the 236.15 long
  • #3,377
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:01pm Apr 18, 2007 11:01pm
buy buy buy buy....
  • #3,378
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:03pm Apr 18, 2007 11:03pm
Quoting alexr78
Looks like its not breaking the 236.00 line .... closing the short .. looking for the 236.15 long
237 will do for the coming session my friend just hold on the trend is our friend....
  • #3,379
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:08pm Apr 18, 2007 11:08pm
The Chinese GDP result has been delayed until 4pm Tokyo time, or 3am EST, 8am GMT. I'm waiting for that before deciding. Just wish I could get the news faster as it comes out.
  • #3,380
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:35pm Apr 18, 2007 11:35pm
Early Frankfurt trading pushed down to the 78.6% support of the rally from Friday at 235.75....if this doesnt hold I can see it quickly down to the 235 area.
I closed my shorts as it held at the fibo and am now flat...watching.
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