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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,341
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:44pm Apr 18, 2007 7:44pm
very difficult time for short term traders.
  • #3,342
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:51pm Apr 18, 2007 7:51pm
Quoting im7i4z
very difficult time for short term traders.
Better hold aside until China tells the truth

Quote
Players note China's GDP release this mng would be extended to 0700GMT when the country's stock market ends, and speculation has the release is delayed due to strong figure.
  • #3,343
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:06pm Apr 18, 2007 8:06pm
I just scalped GJ and UJ shorts in this 01:00GMT fix and out...

I may have lost good dips to buy here, but last time China screwed up, I had to fight for my life all the way down to 221 / 115....

I'm in need of a calm night to sleep here... Back by London...
  • #3,344
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:12pm Apr 18, 2007 8:12pm
21:09 You might wonder why a suprise hike in China would impact the carry. The answer is that tightening is a sign of tightening in global liquidity, which has been one of the drivers behind the carry.
  • #3,345
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:13pm Apr 18, 2007 8:13pm
Quoting black06
I woke up with all my stops hit & an 8% drawdown on my account.
sorry to hear that, majorly sucks, (been there, done that) what money management do you have in place?
  • #3,346
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:13pm Apr 18, 2007 8:13pm
Quoting black06
I'm still foaming at the mouth, twitching in the corner after last night's hit. Confident my positions were safe, I set liberal SLs & got a few Zs. I woke up with all my stops hit & an 8% drawdown on my account. I'm a newbie to live trading & April has been my first month, I had made 11% so far prior to that...back to conservative trading for me. I'll be watching very timidly tonight.
My sympathies. I started in Feb and was at 25%, slowly and carefully learning the ropes. Lost 14% of the account thanks to not noticing my toddler had played with my trading platform. If only he'd clicked the sell button! He'd have made more than me in two weeks.

Losses tend to make me more aggressive, rather than less. I wonder why I don't make more regularly by behaving as if I just lost 200 pips, but I go all risk-averse and baby my gains. I'm also very lazy, and I want to do this part time, but I'll spend all day watching the screens to recover a loss.

UJ is testing 118.20 again. And cable is on it's way down, maybe to test 2.0015, bit it's supposed to be bullish and it's hitting the bottom of the bolli on the 15 mins chart. I hope they'll both bounce so I can buy GJ for a good run up again. Hate getting hit for interest. GJ is currently right on the 1 standard deviation lower bolli at 237.20 (hourly chart). The 2 std dev lower bolli is at 236.70. Don't feel like selling it right now.

Anyway, I'm back to a hair above break-even for the week, maybe with a chance to regain the weeks profit target. Fingers crossed. :-)
  • #3,347
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:15pm Apr 18, 2007 8:15pm
again if you want to make money buy on dips my friends every dip is a gift trade for us in trading the GBP/JPY so what are you waiting for?.......
  • #3,348
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:23pm Apr 18, 2007 8:23pm
21:20 Eur/jpy makes new lows as the market fear of interest rate hikes out of China seems to be growing. Eur/jpoy testing near 160.75/80 at the moment. through here should trigger some stops but we should see some support come in near the 160.50 area which was the NY lows.

Sorry to flood the thread with those comments... But they are getting worse and worse...

That's the kind of stuff I trade, so if those rumors spread wider, things may get ugly here... Market will "trade the rumor" first and ask the questions later...

07:00 GMT is the schedule for China GDP and (possible) surprise hike.
  • #3,349
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:48pm Apr 18, 2007 8:48pm
Quoting cesarnc
21:20 Eur/jpy makes new lows as the market fear of interest rate hikes out of China seems to be growing. Eur/jpoy testing near 160.75/80 at the moment. through here should trigger some stops but we should see some support come in near the 160.50 area which was the NY lows.

Sorry to flood the thread with those comments... But they are getting worse and worse...

That's the kind of stuff I trade, so if those rumors spread wider, things may get ugly here... Market will "trade the rumor" first and ask the questions later...

07:00 GMT is the schedule for China GDP and (possible) surprise hike.
What will a surprise hike do for the geppy?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,350
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:49pm Apr 18, 2007 8:49pm
Spoke too soon..crazy couple of days so far. Tokyo session kamikaze pilots drove us down AGAIN after we had apparently overcome the dip. I bought more now, but a big thumbs up to cesar for the china interest rate warning. I'm not sure how it will affect this pair tho, because carry trades will not favor yen or sterling - both will get dumped.

Will buyers please show up and get us rid of this nasty, mangly, inhuman dip? Please? Or hell, give us a clear trend reversal, or something dammit. Soros was right: good trading is boring.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #3,351
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:56pm Apr 18, 2007 8:56pm
Bummer. The BoE is expected to hike also, probably 25 but possibly 50, but the next BoE rate decision isn't until May 15.

Can I ask a newbie type question? What are the dynamics of the relationship between the Yen and the Chinese Renminbi that the Chinese GDP affects the JPY? Is it similar to Switzerland having it's economy enmeshed in Europes?
  • #3,352
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:03pm Apr 18, 2007 9:03pm
The pound has reached a state where inflation maybe a worry, and i believe the rate hike might have been priced in along time ago. With US weakness and Yens reluctance to revalue, we might be looking at a stale market for the next couple of months. Time for exotics?
  • #3,353
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:29pm Apr 18, 2007 9:29pm
The market is very friendly to us it allows us to buy bargain price at 236 level whooo il add another long position at 236.86 and let it float at least a week to liquidate at 240 level!
  • #3,354
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:41pm Apr 18, 2007 9:41pm
There are times to be long, times to be short and times to go fishing...

This beast moves in increments of 10 pips. lol I should have gone fishing today.
  • #3,355
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:07pm Apr 18, 2007 10:07pm
I usually can stomach no more than 2% risk per trade.

Quoting Trumpcard
sorry to hear that, majorly sucks, (been there, done that) what money management do you have in place?
  • #3,356
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:11pm Apr 18, 2007 10:11pm
Ok, folks, I just got back from vacation and turned on computer and saw this dip down. Now, be honest, are we in bull market or bear market?
  • #3,357
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:13pm Apr 18, 2007 10:13pm
It seems the only way I can make consistent profits is to baby my trades & watch the screen to pick the best entries & exits, the minute I step away it seems like everthing goes to shit. But I'm sure it's just my perception.

Quoting Mulberry
I'm also very lazy, and I want to do this part time, but I'll spend all day watching the screens to recover a loss.
  • #3,358
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:14pm Apr 18, 2007 10:14pm
That's the million dollar question at the moment.

Quoting trader8686
Ok, folks, I just got back from vacation and turned on computer and saw this dip down. Now, be honest, are we in bull market or bear market?
  • #3,359
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:18pm Apr 18, 2007 10:18pm
all indicators short .... including trend indicator, so i'm adding another short order and pray that all indicators can't lie .... we'll see tomorrow
  • #3,360
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:19pm Apr 18, 2007 10:19pm
Quoting black06
That's the million dollar question at the moment.
Lol, funny!
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