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Prove profitability without revealing trade conditions?

  • #21
  • May 28, 2009 8:48pm May 28, 2009 8:48pm
Are you looking for something like this!
http://www.mt4stats.com/

Let you trade a demo or live account and it publishes your trades to the website.
  • #22
  • May 28, 2009 8:51pm May 28, 2009 8:51pm
Hey friend,

You might want to look at Oanda's contest application. I think this would allow you to trade their platform and it would record certain information like number of trades and account growth in currency amount and % amount, without info on your trading techniques of any kind. You could post the link to the page in the forum here, with perhaps a password to get in.

Here is the page in case you are interested. Oanda FXContest


Oh yeah, and if you do this...good luck!
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #23
  • May 28, 2009 8:58pm May 28, 2009 8:58pm
Quoting Marsh
Hey friend,

You might want to look at Oanda's contest application. I think this would allow you to trade their platform and it would record certain information like number of trades and account growth in currency amount and % amount, without info on your trading techniques of any kind. You could post the link to the page in the forum here, with perhaps a password to get in.

Here is the page in case you are interested. Oanda FXContest


Oh yeah, and if you do this...good...
I think you know Im not quite ready to do this yet Buck, but hopefully In the coming months. Ive got afew trades waiting to trigger, actually, one just has. Hope your not too busy.

Cheers for the link, ill check it out.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #24
  • May 28, 2009 9:00pm May 28, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Ive got a question for you actually, assuming a 1:1 RR, How many trades In a sample would would I need to collect (minimum) so that I could derive an accurate/significant Hit-rate %? I understand that Past performance is not an indication of future results and w/e, but just as a means to work out what my optimum position size would be.
I see sample size as being independent of R/R considerations, I use a rolling window of the last 120 trades, with a minimum of 50. I don't have any justification for these numbers I just wanted to automate the process. If you're thinking of using Kelly or something to set trade size, I would forget it, just trade as small as you can until you are sure everything is good.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #25
  • May 29, 2009 2:27am May 29, 2009 2:27am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Slippage and requotes are the only problems I can see, and I dont think that I will have any significant emotional barriers to deal with.
Leon - you've made a lot of great posts on this forum, but maybe one day you're going to realise what a naive statemen that is. Craig has offerd some very good advice here.

Good luck and start trading real dough asap, even if it's microlots.

If/when you've done your research, demo trading becomes a form of procrastination, ie. a way of avoiding "the ongoing moment of truth" that is part of the life of a real trader.
  • #26
  • May 29, 2009 2:41am May 29, 2009 2:41am
forget r/r , forget winrate ,forget all,

just trade ,
if right , add
if wrong , subtract or get out
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #27
  • May 29, 2009 3:27am May 29, 2009 3:27am
Guys.. i have a thread on a system... live testing for 7 months and is still profiting.. but the returns are only 1% a month.. risk i would say total risk involved only less than 20% for the whole year.. maybe u guys can give more info on how i can increase the profit..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=139313

it's just sumthing i wanna share since i gain from FF when i started learning forex about 4 years ago.. i'm a system trader.. so as to eliminated emotion fear during trading..
  • #28
  • May 29, 2009 3:38am May 29, 2009 3:38am
Quoting Holypendant
Guys.. i have a thread on a system... live testing for 7 months and is still profiting.. but the returns are only 1% a month.. risk i would say total risk involved only less than 20% for the whole year.. maybe u guys can give more info on how i can increase the profit..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=139313

it's just sumthing i wanna share since i gain from FF when i started learning forex about 4 years ago.. i'm a system trader.. so as to eliminated emotion fear during trading..
All righty then. I'd say we've got a taker for the independent trade monitoring. Now, where to?
  • #29
  • May 29, 2009 4:20am May 29, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
You know Im serious about this craig, would be amazing If I wasnt after all this time.

Ive got a question for you actually, assuming a 1:1 RR, How many trades In a sample would would I need to collect (minimum) so that I could derive an accurate/significant Hit-rate %? I understand that Past performance is not an indication of future results and w/e, but just as a means to work out what my optimum position size would be.

Leon
Leon,

The reason for the saying "Past Performance Is No Indication or Guarantee For Future Results" is simple: Funds and their creators (money managers, traders etc.) know that the great majority (maybe all) methods will either lose their level of initial profitability or fail completely over time. Depending on what type of phenomena or inefficiencies the methods are trying to exploit and more important, in connection with which time frame that is happening.

There is a book (which I have not read but the title struck me as odd) called 'fooled by randomness' by Taleb. I personally think a better title would be 'fooled by similarity' instead. (you mentioned the pattern-spotting in one of your posts)

Specific concepts in trading have survived and will survive but without naming them here, they are not easy to capture through mechanizing the process. If your own model has a 1:1 r/r ratio, ask yourself on what frequency that is based, how much input in terms of waiting for each occurrence is needed, i.e. can you quantify these aspects to a degree of automation or not.

The first question is: what happens in the market again and again without failure?

The second more important question is this: can you set the clock for each occurrence? (the clue lies in the fact that the majority of traders are more concerned with the second question and fail to realize that what may look the same each time is in fact similar but never the same at all)

If it was really that easy to draw a box every morning around a few hours of trading data and subsequently buy or sell the break for 10, 20 or 50 pips, everyone would do it since there is no contest for the most sophisticated method but for making the most money.

Hence, long term positive performance is only possible by paying attention to the first question and broadly disregarding the second. (if the clock-factor as I like to refer to it comes into play, one has to be aware of its finite nature as mechanics are concerned)

Sorry if I have digressed a bit from the initial thread, Leon, but I can see your serious efforts to climb the mountain and I would like you to get there.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #30
  • May 29, 2009 4:29am May 29, 2009 4:29am
Quoting daytrading
what happens in the market again and again without failure?
Yet another great post, DT. Thanks!
  • #31
  • May 29, 2009 6:48am May 29, 2009 6:48am
To make a point about attempts of automation in a market place that ultimately will not obey our rules in the long run:

http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTi...scription.html

(for the administrators - this is not a promotion, but a link to reading material)

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #32
  • May 29, 2009 8:55am May 29, 2009 8:55am
Quoting Craig
I see sample size as being independent of R/R considerations
Eg. Surely a higher risk for a lower Return means a higher chance of winning on trades, So a larger sample would be needed to iron out the 'luck factor'.
..... And a method where you risk less to win more would need a smaller sample size.

Does this make any sense?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #33
  • May 29, 2009 8:59am May 29, 2009 8:59am
Quoting jtrade
Leon - you've made a lot of great posts on this forum, but maybe one day you're going to realise what a naive statemen that is.
Well, I can certainly see me being more anxious about trade outcomes In the begining, but I cant see this affecting the trades that I make.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #34
  • May 29, 2009 9:28am May 29, 2009 9:28am
Quoting daytrading
Leon,

The reason for the saying "Past Performance Is No Indication or Guarantee For Future Results" is simple: Funds and their creators (money managers, traders etc.) know that the great majority (maybe all) methods will either lose their level of initial profitability or fail completely over time. Depending on what type of phenomena or inefficiencies the methods are trying to exploit and more important, in connection with which time frame that is happening.

There is a book (which I have not read but the title struck me as odd) called 'fooled...
Thanks for the post DT.

Quite a bit to think about in there, and timing the market Is always going to be a losing proposition in my opinion. All that im trying to do with my trading Is find real reasons to be taking trades, idea's that make sense once you get your head around the mechanics of it.

Back to the time issue, a reason I think you cant time the market is simply because its not possible for the main market movers to trade whenever they want, not unless they want to incur horrible costs, Its a prices game.

Id like to see me get there too.

Cheers DT.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #35
  • May 29, 2009 11:10am May 29, 2009 11:10am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Well, I can certainly see me being more anxious about trade outcomes In the begining, but I cant see this affecting the trades that I make.
This is what I hear all the time - this is THE biggest stumbling block to successful trading. Trading is easy - controlling the emotions is very, very difficult.

After 4 years you should be both live and profitable - if you haven't been able to take the plunge after this amount of time, I think you will find live trading 100 times harder than you can ever imagine.

You can spread bet for as little as 10p per point - so funds shouldn't be a factor.

This is not a put down, as I wish you much success.

As for proving an account is valid rather than a fabrication, I'm sure you could ask one of the many respected FF posters to have a look at your account and for them to verify that it is genuine -there was/is a guy that claims to have turned 100 into 100,0000 in a few weeks (or something like that) - I could never understand why he didn't just give Merlin or someone of similar standing his acc. password and ask for verification......that would have saved a lot of the slagging he got!
I've got my pips - go get yours!
  • #36
  • May 29, 2009 11:18am May 29, 2009 11:18am
Quoting BackTestDummy
This is what I hear all the time - this is THE biggest stumbling block to successful trading. Trading is easy - controlling the emotions is very, very difficult.
Trading might be easy, I dont know. But learning how to Is not easy in the slightest.

I think I managed to get way ahead of myself with this thread, the question was intended so that I would know my options for If I wanted to bring a journal over here in the future. It wont be happening soon.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #37
  • Last Post: May 29, 2009 2:30pm May 29, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Eg. Surely a higher risk for a lower Return means a higher chance of winning on trades, So a larger sample would be needed to iron out the 'luck factor'.
..... And a method where you risk less to win more would need a smaller sample size.

Does this make any sense?
I understand what you are saying, but I don't see how you can reach that conclusion given you don't know what will happen in the future, R/R & win rate metrics may change drastically over time so all you can really do is draw a line in the sand. Given that I have no idea what you are doing, this is all conjecture anyway.

You may find this (http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html) useful.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
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