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Daily EUR/JPY analysis

  • #221
  • Apr 13, 2007 12:56pm Apr 13, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting deltaworld
Well it looks like it has broken the 160.85 resistance.. there is no stopping this trade. I really do hope that the weekend corrects this cross

As it is currently at 161.32 and i am -94 pips.. I have set my stop loss if the daily close is above 162

My target is in the 158 area.. I was 30 pips up last night..


According to my charts, 162.50 is alot more likely than 158. Doesn't matter which timeframe I'm looking at, all the trendlines go from bottom left to top right of the chart. It seems to want more.......

But I've been wrong many times before..........
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #222
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:00pm Apr 18, 2007 1:00pm
Thinking it's a pullback and not reversal, one day does not make a trend.

Everything I have is saying it's a pullback sooooo,

It might be a good time to go long targeting 162.50 again. Same with gbp/jpy.

Then again, I have been wrong many times.......
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #223
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:07pm Apr 18, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting pipmonster
Thinking it's a pullback and not reversal, one day does not make a trend.

Everything I have is saying it's a pullback sooooo,

It might be a good time to go long targeting 162.50 again. Same with gbp/jpy.

Then again, I have been wrong many times.......
Currently, I'm in agreement with you. I took a Short position after the trendline break at 161.50 and covered that position at 160.59 after it failed to break the 30EMA on the 4hr. I'm looking for a 4hr close below that EMA, currently at 160.10 before assuming the reversal of the exhausted carry trade.

*EDIT* - Also, I would be very cautious regarding your Long suggestion, as there is a large band of resistance above around 161.25-45.
  • #224
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:35pm Apr 18, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting AlphaPip
Currently, I'm in agreement with you. I took a Short position after the trendline break at 161.50 and covered that position at 160.59 after it failed to break the 30EMA on the 4hr. I'm looking for a 4hr close below that EMA, currently at 160.10 before assuming the reversal of the exhausted carry trade.

*EDIT* - Also, I would be very cautious regarding your Long suggestion, as there is a large band of resistance above around 161.25-45.
E/J has moved into the upper end of the resistance band. I believe a break of 161.60 would confirm 'monster's theory.
  • #225
  • Apr 18, 2007 4:39pm Apr 18, 2007 4:39pm
i Was long on EJ @ 160.57 closed @ 161.45 now short from 161.51 on trailing 15 .. all i use is RSI 4 .. try n see how it wurks.. time frame 30 to get a good entry and 1 hr to add extra only take position when its over bought or over sold area .. my believe RSI will never be 0 or 100 more its close to these liek 2 or 98 mre confident i m in reverser .. thts.. it .. nothing else i need simple n pipping on all currencies
  • #226
  • Apr 18, 2007 6:03pm Apr 18, 2007 6:03pm
Ouch. I got stopped out on one short position at 161.55 for a loss. I made a stupid mistake of adding to my position midway through the long retrace at 161.35 with a S/L of 161.60 that is still alive. I should have moved my 1st position there, as well, and I'd be in much better shape now. Oh well, live and learn. Still short at the moment at a 5 pip profit... Whoopdeedoo..... Hoping the trend continues South....
  • #227
  • Apr 19, 2007 1:12am Apr 19, 2007 1:12am
Since a break at 161.60 didn't end up happening today, does that mean we're likely in a bonified downtrend? Or could this still be a reversal? Or did I totally misunderstand everything?
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #228
  • Apr 19, 2007 7:30am Apr 19, 2007 7:30am
As a trader far wiser than I used to say, " I believe we are the the world of the sticky, stinky, mucky, murky top."

For me, we have very important resistance going back to 1998 for the top and the lows of today are important support.

It may still want another run to challenge the old highs before we hit exhaustion. For now I will still buy the dips according to the charts.

I hate being wrong!!!
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #229
  • Apr 19, 2007 1:17pm Apr 19, 2007 1:17pm
i think as per my chart it should by time not violate 161.11 if it doesnt expect a move atleast to 160.25 ...best of luck rest time will .. tell

happy pipping i love EJ
  • #230
  • Edited 9:57pm Apr 19, 2007 9:56pm | Edited 9:57pm
161.11 may have broken, but as far as I can see the real resistance is about where it is now. Note we've got the dowtrend resistance, and the the height of the last peak to break over. then the various peaks up to 162.40. But i'd want a clear hourly candle (at least) above the trendline. i.e., it looks more to me like a short, but with wide stops....

http://gammarat.com/Forex/30070420/eurjpy20070420.gif
  • #231
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:10pm Apr 20, 2007 2:10pm
Yh it broke .. wut was my resistance .. 161.11 and i got long from 161.20 made a good profit and now waiting for another entry chance .. this is my chart any comments ..... !!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #232
  • Apr 20, 2007 4:16pm Apr 20, 2007 4:16pm
I've got shorts on the pair, which may be really dumb because it is well supportrd by the trendline from 28/Feb. But my indicators have turned down, so I'm giving the contrary move a chance, but only small bets yet. But looking at your chart, the most striking thing is how much it looks like a snake ready to bite
  • #233
  • Apr 21, 2007 4:14am Apr 21, 2007 4:14am
Quoting pipmonster
As a trader far wiser than I used to say, " I believe we are the the world of the sticky, stinky, mucky, murky top."

For me, we have very important resistance going back to 1998 for the top and the lows of today are important support.

It may still want another run to challenge the old highs before we hit exhaustion. For now I will still buy the dips according to the charts.

I hate being wrong!!!

I totally agree with this. Go with the trend. There are major points or resistance that need to be broken before I would sell. I wouldn't suggest buying this pair though.
JOHN 3:16
  • #234
  • Apr 24, 2007 4:07pm Apr 24, 2007 4:07pm
Shorting EJ @ 161.85 anyone wid me ?
  • #235
  • Apr 24, 2007 4:39pm Apr 24, 2007 4:39pm
in at 83 looking for carry trader action!!
  • #236
  • Apr 25, 2007 7:18am Apr 25, 2007 7:18am
If I where to have bought this past dip (which was a continuation of a huge uptrend), Could be looking for are 162.40 today and then watch what happens. It may break top, but I doubt it.

That old top may hold it for another run. Very big psychological hurdle to get over.

Say again, Go with the trend!!!

But as usual the disclaimer, I have been wrong many times before.
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #237
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:44am Apr 26, 2007 10:44am
Now that we have marginally broke the top, it may contiue up to around 162.70. If it does, it may be time to do a quick sell (against the trend) otherwise, wait for the pullback and buy again and go with the trend.
I'm much more inclined to wait for the pullback.

Ideally it would come back to around 161.50 and the go for the highs again. We'll just have to see how things develop before anything can certain.

As always, I have been wrong many times before!
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #238
  • Apr 26, 2007 12:43pm Apr 26, 2007 12:43pm
i am short on EJ @ 162.65 .... lets see if market has found a good top .. anyone with me ???
  • #239
  • Apr 26, 2007 1:18pm Apr 26, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting raheel23
i am short on EJ @ 162.65 .... lets see if market has found a good top .. anyone with me ???
Not in the next 6 months most likely, it just trends too well
-soso
  • #240
  • Apr 26, 2007 1:56pm Apr 26, 2007 1:56pm
Quoting raheel23
i am short on EJ @ 162.65 .... lets see if market has found a good top .. anyone with me ???
Let me see if I got it right... you're shorting this market??? (see picture below).

Are you a salmon, swimming up-stream or something?
Attached Image
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