Daily GBP/JPY analysis

You're right... As Dow Jones has put new highs today, staying aside to check whether or not carry trades will restart responding to the stock market is advised.

well, looks like it has started... I B/E'd a lousy UJ long I had with a UJ dip I bought... Now rolling small position ...

Made some lousy trades today and had to struggle to B/E them.... Still don't know how Tokyo is going to handle Yen and GU is going to form a Daily pin-bar suggesting further correction downwards tomorrow. That + lack of fundis on one side and the bullish trend in the other...

I'll be in the sidelines trading confirmation by London only....

Nasty day to trade... But survived

Thanks :-)

I managed to scalp some back, but the markets were getting flatter into London's close while still UJ tested 118.20. It moved below three times in the last two hours before 5pm GMT, but failed to close below on the oversold hourlies. I count 15 bounces off this level the 240 period daily chart. It's been crossed 5 times, two of those involving a few days of relative pause before moving on. I wonder if we'll get a repetition of the bounce on Jan 8th? - a close around 118.70 or above would allow the price action as well as indicators to look almost identical as far as the dailies go.

Not sure if that translates to GJ though, unless it means GJs about to collapse to the 38.2% fib of the 221.08 to 239.43 rise at around 233 in the next two days. I wasn't trading then - does anyone know why that happened and if the fundamentals are similar? That would be consistent with more carry trade unwinding from a break of UJ 118 as someone said. But in any case 4 days later it regained all the losses on the way to that famous Jan high, making it a pullback not a trend. Plus the British data seems nothing but hawkish.

As if the waters weren't muddy enough, rumours of BoJ hikes to curb Yen weakness are coming through, some think that's got a lot to do with the pull back today. Profit taking on cable didn't help, but hopefully that's done now. Also on the short side is the possible identification of the rise from the Mar low as the B wave on a longer term Elliot analysis, potentially marking this as the start of the downtrend for a C wave, although a last push up to 241 wouldn't break the pattern.

GJ's now bounced from new low of 236.75, then the Yen spiked it up to 237.72, now at .58; great scalps that I didn't have the courage to buy or sell. Cable is flat so UJ having more influence. Getting reports of JPY longs getting cut, although I know of one person still short GJ with a 235.10 target and thier stop at 238.20, although their trade's out of the money right now.

With the move above the S1 bolli band on the 1H I'm temped to buy again. With the Japan CPI and semi-annual meeting due Fri 27th, perhaps it'll range until the fundamentals give clearer cues. If it does range for a bit, I'd feel better about scalping it with limits set for a few pips at a time, but it's not one of my strengths - I always seem to go in the wrong direction.

Sorry this got long. I must be a bit starved for people to talk to about trading, as well as still a bit het up from yesterday's mistake. Time to chill. :-) *Goes off to look for more tea...*

For me UJ 118.10 today formed nice double bottom with Friday's 118.20...

Let's check on Tokyo later on

I think the drop is over in both GBPJPY and USDJPY. These pairs are correlating HIGHLY recently, and both are on a solid recovery. Who agrees? Are people buying this dip now, or are there ppl who dont believe it was a dip yet? I.e are there ppl still short?!!

Dow Jones making remarkable session today, again. And carry trades seems to be responding...

I'll be in the sidelines to look how early Tokyo will trade to make up my mind first.

just got stopped out at 37.00 with some profit ok but only to get long again now ..hoping for a move north but not thinking it will break 240...yet.
just thinking U/J long too

also waiting for a good buy entry,...

cesar rocks,...

heck yeah, ready to press the buy button again. Managed to save half of my position from this unbelievable recovery. (probably when the trend will really start to reverse, nobody is gonna believe it and still buying deeps)

I think I will stay out until the next hourly candle and rethink at that point. If this retraces, I don't think it will be back as far down as I was thinking.

Yep. But good Dow only strengthens prospects for USDJPY return upwards. This is bad for GBPUSD (as I presume you mean) but has mixed feelings for our pair GBPJPY, because yen is getting dumped. You are right to wait for Tokyo, but I am feelnig a little adventurous and have made about 50 pips since the last post.

We need to have a special forum for these correlations/causation issues..

Yes, I know... Here's me after this lousy day Almost got burned with some crappy trades: The encryption in the bomb reads "Here's for the counter-trend trades"

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B0...1.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts...ntiment-index/

I've been around the FX market for a while, but only saw these on fxstreet yesterday. Has anybody seen benefits from these "sentiments"? Are they real?

BTW the GBPJPY one is bullish through the roof. Looks like the "analysts" agree with me, but thats probably a bad thing from my experience

Another crazy kamikaze session set to go off...

I'm still foaming at the mouth, twitching in the corner after last night's hit. Confident my positions were safe, I set liberal SLs & got a few Zs. I woke up with all my stops hit & an 8% drawdown on my account. I'm a newbie to live trading & April has been my first month, I had made 11% so far prior to that...back to conservative trading for me. I'll be watching very timidly tonight.

Your first hit you never forget... learn with the mistake and forget the "million bucks in one year" fiasco....

Compound money. Greedy costs and market does not care if you are a newbie: IT SENDS THE BILL before you know what hit you.

Solid advice. I was beginning to see the $$$s a little prematurely there.

And we're heading down to 236.53. I THINK.

Running for cover is advised.... China is always bad news for carry trades.

20:03China is delaying the release of GDP till after the market close today...this is leading to speculation that the number will be a high one....this will spook the mkt as expectations of more tightenings by PBOC

20:18Cable is down testing support near 2.0060 on the back of JPY cross selling. watch for stops through 2.0050/55.

20:21This China story could be gaining some traction here. It looks like traders may be unwinding some of the carry trades in fear of interest rate hikes from China.

20:26Hearing Japanese investors sell JPY crosses.