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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,281
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:40am Apr 18, 2007 7:40am
Red alert went off here....

What started as a trickle is fast turning into a flood as [CARRY EXITS] pick up pace. More panicked selling has been influenced by the further breakdown and "catch up" for Usd/Yen with stops tripped in size from 118.50 to 118.28. Some stability has returned for the Usd plays but Yen/crosses are all under pressure with Eur/Yen at session lows, and Nzd/Yen sliding to week lows towards 97.50 with Middle Eastern names behind the latest sales that saw Nzd/Usd through 0.7400. Russians have also been unwinding carry linked risk with Japanese life cos also good sellers, and some of this thought linked to Euroland bond redemption. The key is seen in Usd/Yen with any break under the 200 day m.a at 117.97 sure to spook the short term market, which to date has been a persistent dip buyer*.

* me, too... Now I'm exiting my UJ longs via B/Es in GU shorts in this correction.... I'll literally running for cover here
  • #3,282
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:43am Apr 18, 2007 7:43am
Seems to be bouncing off the 261.8 fib. What a ride down. I closed my longs at 238.38 and only now short from here.

Can't seem to upload pics at this time. But fib was based off todays highs with a south bound bent.

yezbick
  • #3,283
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:57am Apr 18, 2007 7:57am
Current fib retracements at 31.8 @ 237.64 and .50 @237.88

Possible opportunity for another ride down to the daily low and beyond.

Hope this is the correction we have been waiting for.

yezbick
  • #3,284
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:18am Apr 18, 2007 8:18am
Quoting yezbick
Current fib retracements at 31.8 @ 237.64 and .50 @237.88

Possible opportunity for another ride down to the daily low and beyond.

Hope this is the correction we have been waiting for.

yezbick
is it still good time for short ?
  • #3,285
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:26am Apr 18, 2007 8:26am
Quoting sameer
is it still good time for short ?
From my limited knowledge of fibanocci's. The price has failed to reach the 38.2 (at least so far), which shows that we are in a strong down trend. Shorts at this point are likely and should be a good time for a short.

A good place for a short would be below the Pivot S1 @ 237.24 I would place it about 10 points below this for a safety net.

Current price is above the S1, even though the low for the day was 236.84. If S1 is breached again we could possible see another strong move south to below the daily low.

yezbick

*Just my 2 cents from my experience


Does anyone else agree with this logic?
  • #3,286
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:31am Apr 18, 2007 8:31am
Again, I'm gonna reiterate what others have been saying. Follow the trend. Don't fight it.

Cesarnc's moneymaking advice: buy the dip. I took a dip at 237.
  • #3,287
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:37am Apr 18, 2007 8:37am
Damn, this is a tough business. I actually get some sleep last night for the first time in weeks & wake up to see all my positions stopped out. That's what I get for sleeping I guess. *sigh* back to the drawing board...
  • #3,288
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:37am Apr 18, 2007 8:37am
Quoting Pipsqueak
Again, I'm gonna reiterate what others have been saying. Follow the trend. Don't fight it.

Cesarnc's moneymaking advice: buy the dip. I took a dip at 237.
Thank you for the reminder.

W1 and D1 trends are long. Currently H4 - M15 are short, and M1 & M5 are long.

Mixed bag lol.
  • #3,289
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:52am Apr 18, 2007 8:52am
Quoting 4x_Trader
If you want to make money never ever buck the trend as long as you hold on to your buying pos you are earning everyday plus the trend is your friend 240-42 will do for the coming session due to stronger than expected earnings and mpc voted 7-2, rate hike is almost in the bag next meeting......
well, until now it seems im the only happy guy here. I dont know why I had the guts to short at 238.80, with only 40 pips stop, but something told me that this is the end for the uptrend at least today Finally we got the expected retracements in both GU and GY. It was obvious that they would come and very strong, the upward move was beginning to become boring, buy deeps everyday.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,290
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:54am Apr 18, 2007 8:54am
Time frames H4 through M1 are all short trends at this time. Looking for break below S1 @ 237.24 for confirmation of south direction.
  • #3,291
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:55am Apr 18, 2007 8:55am
Quoting gagiul
well, until now it seems im the only happy guy here. I dont know why I had the guts to short at 238.80, with only 40 pips stop, but something told me that this is the end for the uptrend at least today Finally we got the expected retracements in both GU and GY. It was obvious that they would come and very strong, the upward move was beginning to become boring, buy deeps everyday.
Way to gagiul, your gut has paid off nicely.
  • #3,292
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:58am Apr 18, 2007 8:58am
Waiting to see if holds, 10-20 pips below should do it.

Next target is 236.84, go GJ go.
  • #3,293
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:07am Apr 18, 2007 9:07am
Quoting Pipsqueak
Again, I'm gonna reiterate what others have been saying. Follow the trend. Don't fight it.

Cesarnc's moneymaking advice: buy the dip. I took a dip at 237.
Watch for UJ at 118.20. On breach will expose 118.00/80 and may trigger further carry unwinding.

I'm buying yen products at confirmed turnaround. Yen repatriation is in play here.
  • #3,294
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:16am Apr 18, 2007 9:16am
No reason for me to be happy just yet, cause it might reverse again, as it happened to me many times. As im just a novice & chicken too, I am already considering to close my position to protect my lucky gains. But I suppose I would regret it later. On the daily, if today would finish around here, we might have an evening star, which can sign a top....

If it breaks 237.02 (23% Fib of 229-239), which is now struggling to, then next is 236.56? I would be very grateful for an update on supports.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,295
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:16am Apr 18, 2007 9:16am
[FOCUS COMMENT: USD"S DOWNSIDE TREND PROMPTS EXIT OF CARRY TRADES] A build up in momentum on the Usd/Majors, with the Usd heading lower, has left players convinced that the moves are clear winners. This has subsequently taken the shine off carry trades and meant heavy pressure on the high yielding currencies today.

Key word: "Today"?
  • #3,296
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:25am Apr 18, 2007 9:25am
Hi from a newbie :-) Funny of the week.

I trade GJ almost exclusively, and after a good day Monday and 6 straight weeks of profit, I decided to take a break with nothing open while the overbought dailies worked into clearer signals.

My toddler helped himself to the PC that morning, and I noticed he closed my trading platform but thought nothing of it - he knows to click the little cross to get windows he doesn't want out of the way. Then we went out all day.

Should have checked... he clicked a couple of buttons, copying mum I guess, and bought 5 lots of GJ at 239.37! Equilibrium regained this am but I might trade more aggressively than normal. :-)

I was nervous about it going up from 239 much, because of the 2.0000 psychological on GU (and there's rumours the BoE may have influenced the main sell this am) and downtrend on UJ, but there's a huge hanging man (sorta - positive candle) on the monthlies for march, so I'm betting on this being a pullback to correct the overbought dailies before another move beyond this years highs. Question is, how far down is far enough?

My trading platform has reported "226.00 GBP put/JPY call option strikes comment timed 13:13GMT traded at 9.8 pct in an estimated yard for a 2-mth expiry date." Does that mean someone out there thinks GJ will reach 226 within two months? Need to bone up on options more.
  • #3,297
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:28am Apr 18, 2007 9:28am
UJ bounced off 118.20 area and it's setting up for a nice 4hr pin-bar with 4hr readings extreme oversold. 1.5 hrs to go

We may have seen the bottom, at least for some hours....
  • #3,298
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:41am Apr 18, 2007 9:41am
Quoting cesarnc
UJ bounced off 118.20 area and it's setting up for a nice 4hr pin-bar with 4hr readings extreme oversold. 1.5 hrs to go

We may have seen the bottom, at least for some hours....
Or not yet...

The [JPY] has been a relative winner since North America open (Usd/Jpy 118.60/65). Risk reduction has been a theme at these multi-year highs and Japanese investors have been Nzd/Jpy sellers. For Usd/Jpy, a Mid East account and US investment house have been standout sellers to the 118.11 low. From here, contacts talk of decent size bidding interest all the way through to 118.00, with stops below. Elsewhere, more stops are tipped on 236.35/50 and 98.00/20 breaks. We do not anticipate concerted risk reduction at this stage, although note Aud/Jpy has come off quickest, percentage wise, since Tue's 100.00 area test. This suggests the broader market sees it as the most over-valued cross and perhaps most vulnerable to a deeper correction. Latest flows have seen a lifer buy into 118.10/15.

Profusion of mixed commentaries here....
  • #3,299
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:58am Apr 18, 2007 9:58am
Quoting Mulberry
Hi from a newbie :-) Funny of the week.

I trade GJ almost exclusively, and after a good day Monday and 6 straight weeks of profit, I decided to take a break with nothing open while the overbought dailies worked into clearer signals.

My toddler helped himself to the PC that morning, and I noticed he closed my trading platform but thought nothing of it - he knows to click the little cross to get windows he doesn't want out of the way. Then we went out all day.

Should have checked... he clicked a couple of buttons, copying mum I guess, and bought 5 lots of GJ at 239.37! Equilibrium regained this am but I might trade more aggressively than normal. :-)

I was nervous about it going up from 239 much, because of the 2.0000 psychological on GU (and there's rumours the BoE may have influenced the main sell this am) and downtrend on UJ, but there's a huge hanging man (sorta - positive candle) on the monthlies for march, so I'm betting on this being a pullback to correct the overbought dailies before another move beyond this years highs. Question is, how far down is far enough?

My trading platform has reported "226.00 GBP put/JPY call option strikes comment timed 13:13GMT traded at 9.8 pct in an estimated yard for a 2-mth expiry date." Does that mean someone out there thinks GJ will reach 226 within two months? Need to bone up on options more.

Enjoyed the story. Toddler - trading guru in training....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,300
  • Apr 18, 2007 10:01am Apr 18, 2007 10:01am
Thinking we will see 236.xx. Not shorting. Will long on a bounce up.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
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