Breakout long straddle with fixed odds | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Breakout Straddle! 19 replies

Simple Breakout/Straddle EA required 29 replies

Fixed odds flash gambling thread 1 reply

Breakout EA (can probably be used as straddle too...) 0 replies

Breakout long straddle with fixed odds

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 8, 2009 11:32am Apr 29, 2009 3:58am | Edited May 8, 2009 11:32am

Breakout strategy - long strangle with fixed odds



There are many good breakout constalations.
Some of them:

(patterns)

-diamond
-triangle
-range
-narrow range
-inside day
...

(also with some indicator constalations)

-low ATR and low ADX
-narrow bollinger bands
...

(news)

-expectation of important news

...

As we all know, breakouts give us a big moves and we can also define are potential target.

But nobody knows in which way will the quotes brakout. There are to many fakes and stopouts (SLs).

There is a well known option construct "straddle" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strangle ).
But we can not become that particular option on any options exchange that we need for an particular breakout.
So i have done this with "fixed odds"

"- the prices (odds) are fixed, but the strike price (the price the market needs to reach for the bet to be "won") is moving"

There are some companies with this products, just Google for "financial fixed odds".

With fixed odds we can not be stopped out befor the strike date.




Now to my work here.

The main point of this strategy is "reward/risk-ratio".
My RRR is min 2,3 and max could 7.

I will take some trades here on daily so we can see what i am talking about.


Zeuzera
  • #2
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:12am Apr 30, 2009 8:12am
please


______________________________________________________

Stochastic Secret
  • #3
  • Apr 30, 2009 2:09pm Apr 30, 2009 2:09pm
1. trade

NZDUSD

Nice brkout constalation on NZDUSD.
ADX extremly down and bolinger bands are getting closer.

My range is the blue box and my targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 11 days the NZDUSD touches or trades trough either 0,525 (low barrier) or 0,6 (high barrier)."
Current price 0,5657.

Price for this bet is 21,46 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)

My reward/risk-ratio is (100 USD - 21,46 USD) / 21,46 = 3,66.

http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/9417/59204220.gif



Zeuzera
  • #4
  • Apr 30, 2009 6:42pm Apr 30, 2009 6:42pm
I don't believe there are any fixed odds betting places for those who live in the U.S. BetonMarkets is not available in the U.S. and I don't know of any others that are either. Maybe someone else knows of some.
  • #5
  • May 8, 2009 12:22pm May 8, 2009 12:22pm
2. trade

GBPJPY

Very nice brkout constalation on GBPJPY.
ATR, which is one of the best indicators for brkouts, extremly down and bolinger bands are getting closer. Last time we had such a good constalation on this pair at the end of september last year, just befor the breakdown of the financial system !!!

My range is the blue box and my targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 14 days the GBPJPY touches or trades trough either 139 (low barrier) or 159 (high barrier)."
Current price 149,23.

Price for this bet is 28,78 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)s

My reward/risk-ratio is (100 USD - 28,78 USD) / 28,78 = 2,47.

Maybe i should make an more agresive trade on such good constalation, but sure is sure .

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/8776/68081290.gif

Zeuzera
  • #6
  • May 8, 2009 12:26pm May 8, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting zeuzera
1. trade

NZDUSD

Nice brkout constalation on NZDUSD.
ADX extremly down and bolinger bands are getting closer.

My range is the blue box and my targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 11 days the NZDUSD touches or trades trough either 0,525 (low barrier) or 0,6 (high barrier)."
Current price 0,5657.

Price for this bet is 21,46 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)

My reward/risk-ratio is (100 USD - 21,46 USD) / 21,46 = 3,66.


Zeuzera

WINN 1. TRADE

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/9093/nzdj.gif


Zeuzera
  • #7
  • May 13, 2009 2:18am May 13, 2009 2:18am
3. trade

EURGBP

GBP seems to be dedicated for the next brkouts.
ATR and ADX ared down, bolinger bands are getting closer. Also nice range during the last 4 weeks.

My range is the blue box and my targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 15 days the EURGBP touches or trades trough either 0,8500 (low barrier) or 0,9400 (high barrier)."
Current price 0,8970

Price for this bet is 19,86 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)

My reward/risk-ratio is (100 USD - 19,86 USD) / 19,86 = 4,03.


http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/7228/16677695.gif

Zeuzera
  • #8
  • May 18, 2009 4:10am May 18, 2009 4:10am
4. trade

GBPUSD

GBP seems to be dedicated for the next brkouts.
ATR and ADX ared down, bolinger bands are getting closer.

My targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 8 days the GBPUSD touches or trades trough either 1,4500 (low barrier) or 1,5700 (high barrier)."
Current price 1,5235

Price for this bet is 23,98 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)

My reward/risk-ratio is (100 USD - 23,98 USD) / 23,98 = 3,17.

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/1226/49804223.gif

Zeuzera
  • #9
  • May 20, 2009 11:36am May 20, 2009 11:36am
Quoting zeuzera
4. trade

GBPUSD

GBP seems to be dedicated for the next brkouts.
ATR and ADX ared down, bolinger bands are getting closer.

My targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 8 days the GBPUSD touches or trades trough either 1,4500 (low barrier) or 1,5700 (high barrier)."
Current price 1,5235

Price for this bet is 23,98 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)

My reward/risk-ratio is (100 USD - 23,98 USD) / 23,98 = 3,17.


Zeuzera

WINN 4. TRADE


http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/117/75108808.gif

Zeuzera
  • #10
  • May 20, 2009 11:43am May 20, 2009 11:43am
Anyone know how this can be done in the U.S.?
  • #11
  • May 25, 2009 3:34am May 25, 2009 3:34am
Quoting zeuzera
2. trade

GBPJPY

Very nice brkout constalation on GBPJPY.
ATR, which is one of the best indicators for brkouts, extremly down and bolinger bands are getting closer. Last time we had such a good constalation on this pair at the end of september last year, just befor the breakdown of the financial system !!!

My range is the blue box and my targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 14 days the GBPJPY touches or trades trough either 139 (low barrier) or 159 (high barrier)."
Current price 149,23.

Price for this bet is...

Trade 2. lost
  • #12
  • May 25, 2009 3:45am May 25, 2009 3:45am
5. trade

GBPJPY

GBPJPY is now trading for 7-8 weeks in the nice range. It is time for some breakout.

My targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 14 days the GBPJPY touches or trades trough either 139 (low barrier) or 161 (high barrier)."
Current price 150,61

Price for this bet is 20,02 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)

My reward/risk-ratio is (100 USD - 20,02 USD) / 20,02 = 3,99.

http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/6194/39094622.gif

Zeuzera
  • #13
  • May 25, 2009 5:06am May 25, 2009 5:06am
Quoting Dreamliner
Anyone know how this can be done in the U.S.?
It looks like Oanda's box game.
They used to have it. I don't know if they still do.
  • #14
  • May 25, 2009 10:45am May 25, 2009 10:45am
Quoting billbss
It looks like Oanda's box game.
They used to have it. I don't know if they still do.
its the same game, but the problem with Oanda (in Europe it is RBS in cooperation with Oanda) is the time. they allowed max 7 days bets. and on Betonmarkts or similar, it is possible to make bets for max 360 days.
but i am mostly somewhere 7-20 days.
  • #15
  • May 28, 2009 6:31am May 28, 2009 6:31am
Quoting zeuzera
3. trade

EURGBP

GBP seems to be dedicated for the next brkouts.
ATR and ADX ared down, bolinger bands are getting closer. Also nice range during the last 4 weeks.

My range is the blue box and my targets are the red lines.

"I wish to win 100 USD if during the next 15 days the EURGBP touches or trades trough either 0,8500 (low barrier) or 0,9400 (high barrier)."
Current price 0,8970

Price for this bet is 19,86 USD (my risk).
(www.betonmarkets.com)

My reward/risk-ratio is...

3. trade lost
  • #16
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:58am Jun 1, 2009 3:58am
Quoting Dreamliner
Anyone know how this can be done in the U.S.?

Hi Dreamliner.

I just recived an email from a friend from U.S..
He had an account on Betonmarkets without any problems.


Zeuzera
  • #17
  • Jun 20, 2009 6:21am Jun 20, 2009 6:21am
There are many brkout constalations on USD but i think that USDCHF ist the most beautyfull. I will do some trades on this pair on monday.

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/9766/25341178.gif
  • #18
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:22am Jun 22, 2009 3:22am
Quoting zeuzera
There are many brkout constalations on USD but i think that USDCHF ist the most beautyfull. I will do some trades on this pair on monday.

by bt on this trade:

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/5702/usdchf.gif
  • #19
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:35am Jun 22, 2009 3:35am
Quoting zeuzera
by bt on this trade:

USD is my brkout favourite, so my second bet on this is some longer term (30 days) on EURUSD:

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/7885/62968503.gif
  • #20
  • Last Post: Jun 22, 2009 4:14am Jun 22, 2009 4:14am
very important, must see

Inserted Video
0 traders viewing now