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4H Box Breakout

  • #241
  • May 24, 2009 11:02am May 24, 2009 11:02am
Hi,

Is it useful to compare the range of the first 4hr candle with the Average Weekly Range (say of the last 5 weeks). If the candle is larger than a fixed portion of the AWR (say 30%) then we don't trade in this week? Would this avoid some unnecessary risky trade (bcoz if the 1st candle is too long, it's hard to get to 2x TP would it?)
  • #242
  • May 24, 2009 2:42pm May 24, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting mitchp
Ace,

For GBPJPY last week the first 4hr bar was 143.03 (low) and 143.97 (high). the seconc bar opened at 143,61 and never went below that. The week ended closing out at 150.80.

Mitch
My numbers were:
(not including spread or buffer)

High - 144.33
Low - 143.17
Week close - 150.79
  • #243
  • Edited 10:45pm May 24, 2009 2:58pm | Edited 10:45pm
I trade a very similar strategy on GBP/USD. Just like Ace284 I discovered it in 2008 and I've been doing it live since Dec (great minds think alike, huh Ace). I've also backtested it manually from Oct. 2004 (as far back as my charts go) Here's how I do it...


Entry:
Same entry rules as you guys have discussed, draw a line 10 pips above and below the Sunday candle.
- Go long on upper break of the line.
- Go short on lower break of the line.

Stoploss:
- For long trades the SL is the Sunday candle low.
- For short trades the SL is the Sunday candle high.
- Set SL to break even once your profit has reached 2x the range of the Sunday candle.

Takeprofit:
- Your TP is ½ of the weekly ATR(14).

Why a 14 period ATR?? I have no idea!! I backtested various setting on the ATR and this one came out the most profitable!!

I've gotten 1448 pips using the strategy since I started, and backtesting shows a gain of 7907 pips since Oct. 2004. If you actively manage your trades with some S+R lines, trendlines, and price action you could probably make a lot more than that! I've included an excel file with my backtesting results and money management projections.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Sunday Breakout.xls   101 KB | 1,252 downloads
  • #244
  • May 24, 2009 4:10pm May 24, 2009 4:10pm
Which brocker offers a demo account with sunday candles?
  • #245
  • May 24, 2009 4:30pm May 24, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting MCFly
Which brocker offers a demo account with sunday candles?
IBFX does. I use an IBFX demo account for all my charting and place my live trades with Oanda.
  • #246
  • May 24, 2009 4:46pm May 24, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting Phil
IBFX does. I use an IBFX demo account for all my charting and place my live trades with Oanda.
Me,too!
  • #247
  • May 24, 2009 8:05pm May 24, 2009 8:05pm
Hi all....


Well here is my box numbers for the week....

Not including Pip Buffer..

GpyJpy .... High 150.99 Low 150.00
Attached Image
  • #248
  • May 24, 2009 8:23pm May 24, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting Angler
Hi all....


Well here is my box numbers for the week....

Not including Pip Buffer..

GpyJpy .... High 150.99 Low 150.00

High - 151.02
Low - 149.98

Little different but thats probably because of the brokers.
  • #249
  • May 24, 2009 8:39pm May 24, 2009 8:39pm
Hi all....


yeah unless everyone uses the same broker the number will not be the same....but in the long run should not make much of a difference.
  • #250
  • May 24, 2009 9:26pm May 24, 2009 9:26pm
Do you think it will go down and triger, or will it reverse?
Failure is the mother of success: learn from 'her'
  • #251
  • May 24, 2009 9:36pm May 24, 2009 9:36pm
Quoting K7420
Do you think it will go down and triger, or will it reverse?
GBP pair are at huge Resistence zone... Indeed we got some very strong up moving last week, so the bulls are still around.... but, IMO, I guess we will see some kind of correction, so I think the short will be triggered first....

Hey, it's JUST my opinion, never take it as a trade advice....

Cheers!

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #252
  • May 24, 2009 10:34pm May 24, 2009 10:34pm
hi all...


I think the idea is to cut down the thinking .....if you start worrying about what could be....it becomes like all others...and then in come all the indicators....no thanks...
  • #253
  • May 24, 2009 10:48pm May 24, 2009 10:48pm
Wow, My sell order just triggered and the it moved in another direction huh?!
Failure is the mother of success: learn from 'her'
  • #254
  • May 24, 2009 11:25pm May 24, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting Angler
hi all...


I think the idea is to cut down the thinking .....if you start worrying about what could be....it becomes like all others...and then in come all the indicators....no thanks...
Agree.... I was just wandering..,,..

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #255
  • May 24, 2009 11:28pm May 24, 2009 11:28pm
Quoting K7420
Wow, My sell order just triggered and the it moved in another direction huh?!
"The market is weird. Every time one guy sells, another one buys, and they both think they're smart."

Ancient Trading Proverb...
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #256
  • May 24, 2009 11:28pm May 24, 2009 11:28pm
Quoting HouseTrader
Agree.... I was just wandering..,,..

Cheers!
wow you're whistling in this losing trade I'm amazed!
Failure is the mother of success: learn from 'her'
  • #257
  • May 24, 2009 11:33pm May 24, 2009 11:33pm
hi all.

A suggestion and something to look at.... when setting the Buffer..

I looked at the brokers High and Low on the hourly bars to see what difference there was compared to the charts I use which are not the Brokers and made an Adjustment to the Buffer to account for the difference...and so far this has prevented a short entry on Gbp/Jpy.....But I have a short on the pair Aud/Jpy..
  • #258
  • May 24, 2009 11:37pm May 24, 2009 11:37pm
Quoting Angler
hi all.

A suggestion and something to look at.... when setting the Buffer..

I looked at the brokers High and Low on the hourly bars to see what difference there was compared to the charts I use which are not the Brokers and made an Adjustment to the Buffer to account for the difference...and so far this has prevented a short entry on Gbp/Jpy.....But I have a short on the pair Aud/Jpy..
Hi,

So your have about a twenty pip difference between the charts you use and the brokers.????
  • #259
  • May 24, 2009 11:47pm May 24, 2009 11:47pm
hi all...

Well in this case yes that is about right..give or take..

I have been adding together....

10pips original buffer
brokers spread
difference in high and low compared to charts..

In this case.....my upper buffer is less than my lower..
  • #260
  • May 24, 2009 11:47pm May 24, 2009 11:47pm
One of the modifications you guys could apply to this method is don't place a trade until 11:30pm EST, preferably 12AM EST (New York Time). I noticed the market can't make up its mind before 12AM, quite choppy. Also, after 12AM, the major markets will jump in such as Dubai (1AM), Frankfurt (2AM), and London (3AM). I'm too accurate on Dubai's timing. I don't mean to steal this thread but as I mentioned before, The Set and Forget Box Daily method, I became quite profitable when I set my buy/sell order around 12AM EST. Just a suggestion...
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